NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[TrumpBritt24]

Anyone but Tish James.

Donated, but interested to see if he can overtake Hochul in polling. 

[Oryxslayer]

Looking forward to see all the political careers of these clowns ended in defeat. They're desperately attempting to replace a scandal-free governor who has governed like a Mainstream Democrat just for opportunistic reasons.

Jumaane is the only one who will still be in elected office and may run for something else (like congress) in the future.

You are aware that many said they didn't;t have an opinion in the most recent approval polls.
Lol, you are clueless. Hochul is the third least popular governor in America according to a recent poll. She will face a strong primary challenge by someone who doesn't appoint Bloomberg retreads to their advisory team.

Yes, but approval below 50 is never a sign that a candidate is untouchable.

Also, lol at the people thinking Suozzi is going to split the NYC vote. Nobody in NYC gives a rat's ass about him. He will cut squarely into Hochul's base as a moderate.

Imagine think ideology, rather than geography, is what's at play here. If it was, then It would just be a Houchul vs Williams primary. And yes, Suozzi isn't going to divide NYC that much, thats for the numerous others who at this point are just as unlikely to see success upstate. But he will divide LI and deny said others votes from their shared media market.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Assuming we think Hochul and James start with a vaguely similar base of support, James has two other candidates in her lane, one who will have a decent support base and one who's a joke. Hochul has only one in her lane and he's unlikely to gain any traction. It's hard not to see her as the heavy favorite right now, and it's incredibly hard to knock off a sitting Governor in a primary.

[pikachu]

https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1465337006603608070

LOL, clown car incoming.

I dunno why that many candidates think they have much of a chance. Other than Hochul, only James is at least a longshot. Perhaps we're seeing some dropouts before the primary is actually around the corner.

Hochul’s the weakest statewide Democratic frontrunner in the 21st century – she’s from the wrong part of the state, she’s still pretty unknown, the establishment hasn’t really circled around her, and she has a proven record as a weak statewide candidate. So, combined with the fact that is a powerful governorship (and arguably the most high-profile in the country considering this is where the media is) with no term limits in a state with a lot of ambitious Democrats who (probably rightly) see this as their best and only chance to be gov/senator means everyone wants to run.

Paradoxically, ofc, this all means that Hochul is way more likely to win now since her normally insufficient upstate base is the only one that’s not going to be split.

[kwabbit]

I don't think Suozzi is trying to win off NYC. I think he's going to pitch himself squarely to Long Island, Queens, and then capture some vote Upstate by being moderate. Hochul will be strong Upstate, but remember this is the Dem primary, a relatively small portion of votes will come from Upstate. Maybe only ~30% of the votes.

[Oryxslayer]

I don't think Suozzi is trying to win off NYC. I think he's going to pitch himself squarely to Long Island, Queens, and then capture some vote Upstate by being moderate. Hochul will be strong Upstate, but remember this is the Dem primary, a relatively small portion of votes will come from Upstate. Maybe only ~30% of the votes.

For references sake, 26.3% of the 2018 Lt. Gov primary vote was north of Westchester and 33.8% was north of NYC. Hochul won this first group 64 - 36 and the second group 63-37 vs Williams.

[TrumpBritt24]

Had a gut feeling we'd see 4+ candidates. Got a feeling we'll see 2-3 more, namely de Blasio saying no and 2 minor candidates jumping in. I think the pretty obvious standings at the moment would be:

1) Hochul
2) James
3) Suozzi
4) Williams

[kwabbit]

I don't think Suozzi is trying to win off NYC. I think he's going to pitch himself squarely to Long Island, Queens, and then capture some vote Upstate by being moderate. Hochul will be strong Upstate, but remember this is the Dem primary, a relatively small portion of votes will come from Upstate. Maybe only ~30% of the votes.

For references sake, 26.3% of the 2018 Lt. Gov primary vote was north of Westchester and 33.8% was north of NYC. Hochul won this first group 64 - 36 and the second group 63-37 vs Williams.

Wow, that’s even more extreme than I thought. I would consider Westchester and Rockland part of Downstate. Hochul can’t just rely on Upstate if it’s only 26% of the vote, she’ll be having to win NYC or close to it as well.

Maybe a New Yorker can comment on this, but I use 2018 GOV as a benchmark for how geographic polarization would affect an election. Cuomo’s overperformance extended into Rockland and Westchester, but Orange and Putnam were still voting very strongly for Molinaro, so it would seem that they identify with Upstate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe Hochul, this state love D Females in Hillary and Gillibrand

[Oryxslayer]

I don't think Suozzi is trying to win off NYC. I think he's going to pitch himself squarely to Long Island, Queens, and then capture some vote Upstate by being moderate. Hochul will be strong Upstate, but remember this is the Dem primary, a relatively small portion of votes will come from Upstate. Maybe only ~30% of the votes.

For references sake, 26.3% of the 2018 Lt. Gov primary vote was north of Westchester and 33.8% was north of NYC. Hochul won this first group 64 - 36 and the second group 63-37 vs Williams.

Wow, that’s even more extreme than I thought. I would consider Westchester and Rockland part of Downstate. Hochul can’t just rely on Upstate if it’s only 26% of the vote, she’ll be having to win NYC or close to it as well.

Maybe a New Yorker can comment on this, but I use 2018 GOV as a benchmark for how geographic polarization would affect an election. Cuomo’s overperformance extended into Rockland and Westchester, but Orange and Putnam were still voting very strongly for Molinaro, so it would seem that they identify with Upstate.

As far as the primary vote goes, the north Suburban counties can go either way and align with either the city or the rest. That's why I included them, in this election they were essentially the same as the overall counties to their north. In the Cuomo elections they aligned more with the city.

Hochul did lose NYC 53.7% to 46.3% in said election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Don't all of these people know that they're just going to split the downstate vote and allow Hochul to win by dominating in upstate?

[Oryxslayer]

Don't all of these people know that they're just going to split the downstate vote and allow Hochul to win by dominating in upstate?

I assume its similar to the Biden/bernie situation from the D primary in 2019: sure they have a big base but if you crowd out the alternatives and force them to end their runs then you could end up ahead. Of course in said contest nobody left the feild until it was too late and Bidens geographic stronghold, comparable to Upstate, came through and crushed the opposition so...

[Orwell]

I think it would be funny if Hochul were to get North Korean margains in upset like Adkins did in coal country but still lose

[Sir Mohamed]

Has a sitting gov in recent memory attracted that many non-perennial candidates? Tbh, I can't think of one. Most likely has nothing to do with Hochul personally or her governing style, I just think these contenders long desired to be gov anyway and see this race as a "now or never/in 10 years" as Hochul is an unelected incumbent who was a lower profile politician before taking the reigns of power. Williams is possibly the only candidate who actually runs for pure ideological reasons and would have done so against any incumbent who isn't to the left of AOC.

That said, I think there's a substantial chance not all candidates even make it to June, when the primary is held. I'm not fully convinced Suozzi will even gain traction statewide, same applies to De Blasio if/when he enters. Williams will most likely hang on even if the race becomes (or stays) a de facto Hochul vs. James contest with the former has clear favorite. Remember NY is a large state and you need to raise enough money to seriously contest a race statewide.

[Oryxslayer]

Has a sitting gov in recent memory attracted that many non-perennial candidates? Tbh, I can't think of one. Most likely has nothing to do with Hochul personally or her governing style, I just think these contenders long desired to be gov anyway and see this race as a "now or never/in 10 years" as Hochul is an unelected incumbent who was a lower profile politician before taking the reigns of power. Williams is possibly the only candidate who actually runs for pure ideological reasons and would have done so against any incumbent who isn't to the left of AOC.

That said, I think there's a substantial chance not all candidates even make it to June, when the primary is held. I'm not fully convinced Suozzi will even gain traction statewide, same applies to De Blasio if/when he enters. Williams will most likely hang on even if the race becomes (or stays) a de facto Hochul vs. James contest with the former has clear favorite. Remember NY is a large state and you need to raise enough money to seriously contest a race statewide.

This is an excellent take. Only thing I would note is less that it is a big state and more that the NYC media market will swallow a campaign alive if the candidate cannot get traction.

[SInNYC]

I think there is another factor that is missing in figuring out the lanes - there are enough identity based voters who will make their choices based on gender/race. For these voters, this means Hochul and James split votes, James and Wlliams split votes, etc.

[President Johnson]

Yonkers Mayor Mike Spano has previously expressed interest in running now endorsed Hochul. According to Wikipedia and her campaign Twitter account, she has racked up several endorsements from local Democratic officials and Democratic state legislators in recent days.

https://twitter.com/KathyHochul/status/1466405973963255818

[Coolface’s actual roommate]

India Walton endorsed Williams
cityandstateny.com/politics/2021/12/endorsements-democratic-candidates-new-york-governor/186770/

[JMT]

James OUT

https://twitter.com/tishjames/status/1468988883081830402?s=21

[Duke of York]

James OUT

https://twitter.com/tishjames/status/1468988883081830402?s=21

Hochul is now the overwhelming favorite. I don't see any of the other current challengers beating her.

[KaiserDave]

Very embarrassing for James.

[Duke of York]

Very embarrassing for James.

What's embarrassing about it?

[MargieCat]

Will this have any effect on Tish James' AG campaign?

I know Dan Goldman is running in the primary to succeed her.

[Duke of York]

Will this have any effect on Tish James' AG campaign?

I know Dan Goldman is running in the primary to succeed her.

I think its likely several people drop out.

[Lief 🗽]

Good to see. Now let’s hope the party unite around our Governor and our AG, so that we can turn our attention to defending both seats next November.