NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Heebie Jeebie]

AG Tish James is considering running....

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/16/letitia-james-discussing-run-for-new-york-governor-after-cuomos-fall.html

I hope she doesn't run. Hochul deserves a chance. I think the party is going to rally behind her and James will run next time around.

There is no next time around for James.  Both she and Hochul are the same age, and there are no term limits in New York.  As long as Hochul serves in even a semi-competent fashion, she's going to be governor until she decides to retire, in 2034 at the earliest.  Both she and James will be 76 that year.  Let's face it--the only opportunity James will have for career advancement will be as a cabinet member in Biden's or Harris's administration.

[wbrocks67]

It's still early, but Hochul seems like a perfect fit for the state at large.

[President Johnson]

It's still early, but Hochul seems like a perfect fit for the state at large.

Interestingly there are many parallels to Gilibrand: Both started off as a congresswoman in a red district with relative moderate views and then were unexpectedly elevated to higher office and became more liberal. However, as I stated earlier in the thread, I find Hochul much more likeable. Both apparently know and like each other though and I'm certain Gilibrand will endorse and campaign for Hochul.

[Duke of York]

AG Tish James is considering running....

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/16/letitia-james-discussing-run-for-new-york-governor-after-cuomos-fall.html

I hope she doesn't run. Hochul deserves a chance. I think the party is going to rally behind her and James will run next time around.

There is no next time around for James.  Both she and Hochul are the same age, and there are no term limits in New York.  As long as Hochul serves in even a semi-competent fashion, she's going to be governor until she decides to retire, in 2034 at the earliest.  Both she and James will be 76 that year.  Let's face it--the only opportunity James will have for career advancement will be as a cabinet member in Biden's or Harris's administration.

If the party gets behind Hochul I can't see James launching a primary.

[NewYorkExpress]

It's still early, but Hochul seems like a perfect fit for the state at large.

Interestingly there are many parallels to Gilibrand: Both started off as a congresswoman in a red district with relative moderate views and then were unexpectedly elevated to higher office and became more liberal. However, as I stated earlier in the thread, I find Hochul much more likeable. Both apparently know and like each other though and I'm certain Gilibrand will endorse and campaign for Hochul.

Gillibrand probably would have lost a primary in 2010 if Obama and the National Democrats hadn't intervened, and I wouldn't be shocked if something similar happened to Hochul.

[wbrocks67]

It's still early, but Hochul seems like a perfect fit for the state at large.

Interestingly there are many parallels to Gilibrand: Both started off as a congresswoman in a red district with relative moderate views and then were unexpectedly elevated to higher office and became more liberal. However, as I stated earlier in the thread, I find Hochul much more likeable. Both apparently know and like each other though and I'm certain Gilibrand will endorse and campaign for Hochul.

Gillibrand probably would have lost a primary in 2010 if Obama and the National Democrats hadn't intervened, and I wouldn't be shocked if something similar happened to Hochul.

Hochul seems to have good favor so far, now that she will have the name rec as governor for a year, I don't see why she wouldn't win the primary at this point.

Also, James also has a positive net fav in polls, but a lot of times its like 38/20 or something, with ~40% not being sure. I think her name rec is a bit overestimated here.

[Suburbia]

Hochul is seen as a Blue Dog Democrat, James and DiNapoli are seen as more progressive, DiNapoli, especially for a Long Islander. Before he was appointed as controller in 2007 he was a long time Assemblyman from Thomaston, LI in the North Shore section of Nassau County...

Joy Reid calls her Fast and Furious Kathy because she voted in Congress to censure Eric Holder and she accepted money from the NRA....

She is from upstate NY, they hunt up there, what do you expect?

I think James, Biaggi, DiNapoli and Bellone will choose to run by now and November, running in NY is expensive...

And don't count out Cuomo, Spitzer and Weiner, all three are egotistical to think of running again, especially Cuomo. The NY Legislature should have barred him from running again for state office....

[NewYorkExpress]

The Washington Post asks Tom Suozzi about a Gubernatorial bid, and he refuses to answer the question.

You’re said to be considering running for governor. What are you weighing and when do plan to make a decision?


Suozzi: Right now, the most important thing I can do for New Yorkers is to get SALT relief for them and their families. Everything else right now is secondary.

Suozzi previously mounted a Gubernatorial campaign in 2006, back when he was Nassau County Executive, losing to Eliot Spitzer in the Democratic Primary.

[Duke of York]

Hochul is seen as a Blue Dog Democrat, James and DiNapoli are seen as more progressive, DiNapoli, especially for a Long Islander. Before he was appointed as controller in 2007 he was a long time Assemblyman from Thomaston, LI in the North Shore section of Nassau County...

Joy Reid calls her Fast and Furious Kathy because she voted in Congress to censure Eric Holder and she accepted money from the NRA....

She is from upstate NY, they hunt up there, what do you expect?

I think James, Biaggi, DiNapoli and Bellone will choose to run by now and November, running in NY is expensive...

And don't count out Cuomo, Spitzer and Weiner, all three are egotistical to think of running again, especially Cuomo. The NY Legislature should have barred him from running again for state office....

No way Cuomo runs again. He filed to take his pension with the Comptroller. He'd never win a statewide primary now.

[Suburbia]

The Washington Post asks Tom Suozzi about a Gubernatorial bid, and he refuses to answer the question.

You’re said to be considering running for governor. What are you weighing and when do plan to make a decision?


Suozzi: Right now, the most important thing I can do for New Yorkers is to get SALT relief for them and their families. Everything else right now is secondary.

Suozzi previously mounted a Gubernatorial campaign in 2006, back when he was Nassau County Executive, losing to Eliot Spitzer in the Democratic Primary.

Does Suozzi have a political base? Other than outerborough and suburban white Democrats?

[NotSoLucky]

Hochul is seen as a Blue Dog Democrat, James and DiNapoli are seen as more progressive, DiNapoli, especially for a Long Islander. Before he was appointed as controller in 2007 he was a long time Assemblyman from Thomaston, LI in the North Shore section of Nassau County...

Joy Reid calls her Fast and Furious Kathy because she voted in Congress to censure Eric Holder and she accepted money from the NRA....

She is from upstate NY, they hunt up there, what do you expect?

I think James, Biaggi, DiNapoli and Bellone will choose to run by now and November, running in NY is expensive...

And don't count out Cuomo, Spitzer and Weiner, all three are egotistical to think of running again, especially Cuomo. The NY Legislature should have barred him from running again for state office....

No way Cuomo runs again. He filed to take his pension with the Comptroller. He'd never win a statewide primary now.

Every time I check Cuomo's twitter, there's always a bunch of middle aged (mostly white) women in the replies who worship him and think his removal from office was some kind of ploy to get Trump pardoned 

[Duke of York]

Hochul is seen as a Blue Dog Democrat, James and DiNapoli are seen as more progressive, DiNapoli, especially for a Long Islander. Before he was appointed as controller in 2007 he was a long time Assemblyman from Thomaston, LI in the North Shore section of Nassau County...

Joy Reid calls her Fast and Furious Kathy because she voted in Congress to censure Eric Holder and she accepted money from the NRA....

She is from upstate NY, they hunt up there, what do you expect?

I think James, Biaggi, DiNapoli and Bellone will choose to run by now and November, running in NY is expensive...

And don't count out Cuomo, Spitzer and Weiner, all three are egotistical to think of running again, especially Cuomo. The NY Legislature should have barred him from running again for state office....

No way Cuomo runs again. He filed to take his pension with the Comptroller. He'd never win a statewide primary now.

Every time I check Cuomo's twitter, there's always a bunch of middle aged (mostly white) women in the replies who worship him and think his removal from office was some kind of ploy to get Trump pardoned 

twitter is not representative. No way he wins a statewide primary at this point.

[NewYorkExpress]

The Washington Post asks Tom Suozzi about a Gubernatorial bid, and he refuses to answer the question.

You’re said to be considering running for governor. What are you weighing and when do plan to make a decision?


Suozzi: Right now, the most important thing I can do for New Yorkers is to get SALT relief for them and their families. Everything else right now is secondary.

Suozzi previously mounted a Gubernatorial campaign in 2006, back when he was Nassau County Executive, losing to Eliot Spitzer in the Democratic Primary.

Does Suozzi have a political base? Other than outerborough and suburban white Democrats?

Suozzi probably would win Nassau County, and I think he'd do well in Suffolk, but against Hochul, he'd get slaughtered upstate, and I'm not sure he'd do better in New York City than she would.

[GregTheGreat657]

Hochul fav is 42/17, including 32/25 among Reps

https://www.scribd.com/document/525193942/SNY0921-Crosstabs

I don't think most GOP voters actually approve of her so far, they just approve of her not being Cuomo

[wbrocks67]

Hochul fav is 42/17, including 32/25 among Reps

https://www.scribd.com/document/525193942/SNY0921-Crosstabs

I don't think most GOP voters actually approve of her so far, they just approve of her not being Cuomo

Even so, New York Republicans seem to be less Trumpy than other state GOPers, so it seems possible to me you have a small base that would still vote for Hochul over an R, or at least think about it. (versus other states where it's like 90/10 no matter what)

[GregTheGreat657]

Hochul fav is 42/17, including 32/25 among Reps

https://www.scribd.com/document/525193942/SNY0921-Crosstabs

I don't think most GOP voters actually approve of her so far, they just approve of her not being Cuomo

Even so, New York Republicans seem to be less Trumpy than other state GOPers, so it seems possible to me you have a small base that would still vote for Hochul over an R, or at least think about it. (versus other states where it's like 90/10 no matter what)

She hasn't governed like the Blue Dog she was in Congress, so I don't see her doing any better than say 15-20% of Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

Hochul fav is 42/17, including 32/25 among Reps

https://www.scribd.com/document/525193942/SNY0921-Crosstabs

I don't think most GOP voters actually approve of her so far, they just approve of her not being Cuomo

Even so, New York Republicans seem to be less Trumpy than other state GOPers, so it seems possible to me you have a small base that would still vote for Hochul over an R, or at least think about it. (versus other states where it's like 90/10 no matter what)

She hasn't governed like the Blue Dog she was in Congress, so I don't see her doing any better than say 15-20% of Republicans.

Which is still good enough IMO. She seems palatable enough, where she could be an Ossoff type. Where they are pretty damn liberal in their actions and votes, but their persona comes off much more 'moderate'. A very winning formula.

[GregTheGreat657]

Hochul fav is 42/17, including 32/25 among Reps

https://www.scribd.com/document/525193942/SNY0921-Crosstabs

I don't think most GOP voters actually approve of her so far, they just approve of her not being Cuomo

Even so, New York Republicans seem to be less Trumpy than other state GOPers, so it seems possible to me you have a small base that would still vote for Hochul over an R, or at least think about it. (versus other states where it's like 90/10 no matter what)

She hasn't governed like the Blue Dog she was in Congress, so I don't see her doing any better than say 15-20% of Republicans.

Which is still good enough IMO. She seems palatable enough, where she could be an Ossoff type. Where they are pretty damn liberal in their actions and votes, but their persona comes off much more 'moderate'. A very winning formula.

Ossoff never ran on the same ticket as the most hated governor in recent history

[wbrocks67]

Hochul fav is 42/17, including 32/25 among Reps

https://www.scribd.com/document/525193942/SNY0921-Crosstabs

I don't think most GOP voters actually approve of her so far, they just approve of her not being Cuomo

Even so, New York Republicans seem to be less Trumpy than other state GOPers, so it seems possible to me you have a small base that would still vote for Hochul over an R, or at least think about it. (versus other states where it's like 90/10 no matter what)

She hasn't governed like the Blue Dog she was in Congress, so I don't see her doing any better than say 15-20% of Republicans.

Which is still good enough IMO. She seems palatable enough, where she could be an Ossoff type. Where they are pretty damn liberal in their actions and votes, but their persona comes off much more 'moderate'. A very winning formula.

Ossoff never ran on the same ticket as the most hated governor in recent history

Hochul has pretty much done everything possible to distance herself, and she really hasn't seemed close to Cuomo at all since 2018.

[pikachu]

Jumaane launching an exploratory committee

Interesting note in the article on James too:

With the field of Democratic candidates still largely unsettled, Mr. Williams’s allies hope his move gives him an edge over other prominent New York Democrats looking at the race. Letitia James, the attorney general, is privately discussing the contest with party donors and officials, with her allies sounding increasingly bullish on the likelihood of a campaign to be America’s first Black female governor.

[President Johnson]

Jumaane is going to lose by a wider margin than 2018 unless Hochul screws it up in the meantime (doubtful).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jumaane launching an exploratory committee

Interesting note in the article on James too:

With the field of Democratic candidates still largely unsettled, Mr. Williams’s allies hope his move gives him an edge over other prominent New York Democrats looking at the race. Letitia James, the attorney general, is privately discussing the contest with party donors and officials, with her allies sounding increasingly bullish on the likelihood of a campaign to be America’s first Black female governor.

Endorsed

[pikachu]

Also, this wasn’t posted earlier, but James is still looking into it. Would be surprising to see both her and Jumaane run since they’d be drawing from a similar base.

[Suburbia]

So basically Hochul, de Blasio, James, Williams and potentially Suozzi and DiNapoli are the D candidates that will be on the ballot??

James could take away a lot of votes from Hochul.....

[NewYorkExpress]

If James stays out, and no other Democrats other than Juumane Williams runs, I'd probably pick Williams to win the primary, unless Hochul moves dramatically to the left.

She's in a very similar position to Kirsten Gillibrand in 2010, and she might not have the National Establishment backing her up, since Biden will be under pressure to stay out of the race, and the left wing of the party, especially AOC, will back Williams anyways.