When will the following countries have legalized same-sex marriage?

[Blue3]

When will the following countries have legalized same-sex marriage?

Austria
Switzerland
Italy
Poland
Chile
Costa Rica
Panama
Guatemala
any Carribean nation (and which one will be first?)
Ethiopia
Kenya
Tunisia
Liberia
Nepal
Japan
South Korea
Mongolia
India
China

?


The current map in Wikipedia:

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Costa Rica in almost exactly one year (363 days to be precise), Chile could be before then if Piñera doesn’t put up a fight, if he doesn’t it’ll probably happen in the next left-wing government.

[parochial boy]

In Switzerland there's no real opposition. it's currently rolling through committee stages in parliament, the only delay is parliamentary procedure and the federal election in October.

I reckon it'll be 2021. It'll get through parliament easily, but inestimably the hard right christian party will challenge it and we'll wind up having a referendum. The referendum will pass easily (something like 70% support, and that's already from a few years ago), but it will delay it that little bit longer.

[Tender Branson]

Remove Austria.

It is already legal here.

[dead0man]

How do the socially liberal people that hate the west look at that map (and all the other maps that show that the west is way better than the non-west)?

[Sestak]

How do the socially liberal people that hate the west look at that map (and all the other maps that show that the west is way better than the non-west)?

“Others are worse” does not make you good on its own...

(I don’t actually “hate the west” but this seems like an obvious flaw in your position...)

[dead0man]

How do the socially liberal people that hate the west look at that map (and all the other maps that show that the west is way better than the non-west)?

“Others are worse” does not make you good on its own...

Sure, if some dummy is looking for the perfect, he's not going to find it...but if you just want to say who is better on issues a social liberal would be interested in, you can.  It is better to be gay in Tulsa than is is to be gay in any place east or south of Jerusalem.

[Tintrlvr]

Largely guesswork, didn't bother projecting past 2040, maybe a little optimistic:

Austria - Already legal
Switzerland - 2021
Italy - mid-2020s
Poland - late 2020s (possibly by EU-wide court decision)
Chile - 2020
Costa Rica - 2020
Panama - mid-2020s
Guatemala - Not by 2040
Caribbean nation - 2030s, assuming only fully independent countries count (i.e., no Puerto Rico, Kingdom of the Netherlands, Cayman Islands, etc.)
Ethiopia - Not by 2040
Kenya - Not by 2040
Tunisia - 2030s
Liberia - Not by 2040
Nepal - late 2020s
Japan - late 2020s
South Korea - 2030s
Mongolia - late 2020s
India - 2030s
China - mid-2020s

[Lord Halifax]

Largely guesswork, didn't bother projecting past 2040, maybe a little optimistic:

Japan - late 2020s
South Korea - 2030s
China - mid-2020s

South Korea is by far the most socially liberal of these three, and why would PRC legalize it?

[Tintrlvr]

Largely guesswork, didn't bother projecting past 2040, maybe a little optimistic:

Japan - late 2020s
South Korea - 2030s
China - mid-2020s

South Korea is by far the most socially liberal of these three, and why would PRC legalize it?

PRC is by far the most socially liberal of these three when it comes to this specific type of issue. PRC has the least internal opposition, both from the public and from institutions. And Chinese culture is much more liberal than Korean or Japanese culture generally. I don't think the PRC government is particularly interested in social liberalization, but I can also see them enacting same-sex marriage because it seems reasonably popular with the public and there is international interest in them doing so, i.e., they don't really care about the issue but would also move quickly if they thought doing so was advantageous. I do think legalization in Taiwan puts some pressure on the PRC as well.

South Korea is not socially liberal at all, and evangelical Christianity has far more influence in South Korea than in either of the other two. I agree that Moon Jae-in himself probably is personally in favor of legalizing same-sex marriage now, but even within his party he would face stiff resistance, and he's not talking about it at all because there would be significant backlash (more than Tsai Ing-wen faced in Taiwan, and from a particularly religious Christian population especially). Japan would mostly be slow due to apathy/the slow grind of accomplishing any social change in Japan rather than particular principled opposition.

[Lord Halifax]

Largely guesswork, didn't bother projecting past 2040, maybe a little optimistic:

Japan - late 2020s
South Korea - 2030s
China - mid-2020s

South Korea is by far the most socially liberal of these three, and why would PRC legalize it?

PRC is by far the most socially liberal of these three when it comes to this specific type of issue. PRC has the least internal opposition, both from the public and from institutions. And Chinese culture is much more liberal than Korean or Japanese culture generally. I don't think the PRC government is particularly interested in social liberalization, but I can also see them enacting same-sex marriage because it seems reasonably popular with the public and there is international interest in them doing so, i.e., they don't really care about the issue but would also move quickly if they thought doing so was advantageous. I do think legalization in Taiwan puts some pressure on the PRC as well.

South Korea is not socially liberal at all, and evangelical Christianity has far more influence in South Korea than in either of the other two. I agree that Moon Jae-in himself probably is personally in favor of legalizing same-sex marriage now, but even within his party he would face stiff resistance, and he's not talking about it at all because there would be significant backlash (more than Tsai Ing-wen faced in Taiwan, and from a particularly religious Christian population especially). Japan would mostly be slow due to apathy/the slow grind of accomplishing any social change in Japan rather than particular principled opposition.

None of these three countries are socially liberal, but South Korea is a lot more so than Japan, Evangelical Christians are a small and largely irrelevant minority. Not sure where you get the strange idea that Chinese culture is "much more liberal than Korean or Japanese culture generally" from.

I don't expect any of these countries to allow gay marriage before 2030, but South Korea is the most likely to do it due to a more progressive and pluralistic political culture.