Rasmussen: Ehrlich trails both Democrats by fairly significant margins

[TheresNoMoney]

Wow, check this out:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/Maryland%20Governor%20Nov%2022.htm

Martin O'Malley is leading Bob Ehrlich by 6% and Doug Duncan is leading Ehrlich by 9%. Looks like the real race could be the Democratic primary!

[Speed of Sound]

wow. Those are nice margins, but not nice enough to gauruntee any victories.

[Moooooo]

Definitely not a guranteed victory considering how well Ehrlich ran his last campaign (KKT or not).

Duncan leading by a larger margin than O'Malley says something though.

[TheresNoMoney]

Definitely not a guranteed victory considering how well Ehrlich ran his last campaign (KKT or not).

Definitely true, but when an incumbent is already trailing a year away from the race, that's a very bad sign! My thoughts on this are that an incubment has less potential to bring in new voters they don't already have.

[Moooooo]

Why he refuses to poll the primary is beyond me.

By the way, Im leaning Duncan now and it has very little to do with this poll.

[TheresNoMoney]

By the way, Im leaning Duncan now and it has very little to do with this poll.

Reasons?

I don't know much about O'Malley or Duncan, but I'd probably be inclined to go with O'Malley since many say he has presidential/star potential.

[Moooooo]

Duncan has a pretty solid record.  It will be very hard for Ehrlich to pick it apart in the general election.  His top issue is and always has been education.  He has done wonders in Silver Spring from what I understand.  The only thing holding me back from supporting him earlier on was my doubts that he could compete with Ehrlich.  Now that he's proven via 3 polls that he can compete.  Im inclined to lean towards the man who I think will be the better governor.

[Democratic Hawk]

I just trust that Mayland Democrats select the best possible candidate to take out Ehrlich

Dave

[??????????]

O'Malley is nuts and has destroyed what was left of the public school system in Baltimore City.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Martin O'Malley is leading Bob Ehrlich by 6% and Doug Duncan is leading Ehrlich by 9%. Looks like the real race could be the Democratic primary!

Eh? While this is good news for the MD Democrats, I don't see how the facts back up your assertion; if the leads were both in double-digits, sure, that would be a reasonable, if hyperbolic, statement. But they aren't; one isn't that far outside the MoE.

[TheresNoMoney]

Eh? While this is good news for the MD Democrats, I don't see how the facts back up your assertion

Obviously, I was exxagerating a bit.

But still, a challenger leading an incumbent by 6%-9% is different from an open race where one canidate is leading the other by 6%-9%. With an incumbent that's already been in office for three years, they have little room to grow. The electorate knows them and already has an opinion. It is much tougher for an incumbent to come back after trailing by 6%-9% at this stage of the game. I'm not saying it can't happen, though.

[Yates]

This is my first post, and I will try to contribute something significant. 

While these poll numbers do not translate into an automatic defeat for Ehrlich, they obviously do not predict great things for the Ehrlich campaign.  Given that in 2002, Ehrlich was the severe underdog, these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.  With a great campaign, Ehrlich is likely to be re-elected.