Talk Elections
Forum
Contact
|
US Election Atlas
Election 2020
Election Results
Election Info
Atlas Wiki
Welcome,
Guest
. Please
login
or
register
.
Did you miss your
activation email?
March 02, 2021, 02:44:04 PM
Talk Elections
Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
U.S. Presidential Election Results
(Moderator:
ON Progressive
)
What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
« previous
next »
Pages:
[
1
]
Author
Topic: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again? (Read 1058 times)
Canis
canis
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,418
Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -6.26
What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
on:
May 25, 2019, 12:04:39 AM »
Pretty much how do we flip the south?
Logged
Skunk
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,977
Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: -9.48
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #1 on:
May 25, 2019, 12:20:30 AM »
Time travel to the 1990's.
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 7,555
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #2 on:
May 25, 2019, 01:06:46 AM »
Have Jesus Christ return and campaign for the Dem party
Logged
Averroës Nix
Averroës
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,811
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #3 on:
May 25, 2019, 11:43:21 AM »
Repeal the Civil Rights Act, along with a constitutional amendment or two.
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
Atlas Icon
Posts: 19,741
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #4 on:
May 25, 2019, 01:05:22 PM »
Might as well ask how you're going to flip Utah.
Actually, that's probably more likely in the long term (long term means more than a decade) than Arkansas or West Virginia.
Logged
Xeuma
Jr. Member
Posts: 605
Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: 0.00
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #5 on:
May 25, 2019, 04:57:42 PM »
Quote from: Mondale on May 25, 2019, 01:06:46 AM
Have Jesus Christ return and campaign for the Dem party
Wouldn't be enough.
Logged
AN63093
63093
Jr. Member
Posts: 886
Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 2.17
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #6 on:
May 25, 2019, 05:30:44 PM »
«
Edited:
May 25, 2019, 05:35:05 PM
by
AN63093 »
Quote from: Canis on May 25, 2019, 12:04:39 AM
Pretty much how do we flip the south?
This is a different question than the topic question ("What would we have to do to make WV and AR competitive again?") Which one are you interested in discussing?
The answer to the first Q (how do we flip the south), that is already underway (or has already happened in some states). VA has flipped, NC and FL are competitive, GA is probably going to flip in either 2020 or 2024, and TX is trending D and could flip in the next 20 years. MD and DE never went R, if you count them as Southern states (I do, many others don't). It's not the
entire
South, sure, but Dems are already competitive in a large part of it and the most EV-heavy states.
Your second question (how to make WV/AR competitive again), is somewhat nonsensical. WV and AR were never really "competitive" states, they were solid D states and then flipped. AR especially, was a one-party state for most of American history. At really no point in US history could it be said to be a "competitive" state, where both parties had a legitimate shot at winning it. Maybe 2000, but that's really it, and I'm not even sure about that.
If really what you're asking is what would have to happen for WV/AR to become D states again- a realignment where the demographics in those states become part of the D base again.
If you're looking for a Southern state that is likely to flip D (and perhaps surprisingly so, to some people), what you want to look for is MS, not WV and AR. There is already a thread on that
discussing it extensively
, but the long and short of it is- there is a long-term demographics problem there for the GOP that isn't hard to discover and will soon become pretty apparent, maybe as early as the 2030s.
Logged
Teflon Joe.
Zyzz
YaBB God
Posts: 4,976
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #7 on:
May 26, 2019, 04:09:55 PM »
Quote from: Left-Libertarian on May 25, 2019, 04:57:42 PM
Quote from: Mondale on May 25, 2019, 01:06:46 AM
Have Jesus Christ return and campaign for the Dem party
Wouldn't be enough.
What about if it's against a Roy Moore type who has a even worse sex scandal with a black boy, and the Dem is Joe Manchin and has picked Jesus Christ as his VP?
Logged
morgieb
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,570
Political Matrix
E: -7.55, S: -8.09
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #8 on:
May 26, 2019, 09:27:27 PM »
West Virginia = would require the Dems to become more of a social democrat/populist party and the Republicans to move in a technocratic, socially liberal centre-right direction. I don't envision this happening any time soon.
Arkansas = hard to imagine it. There's no real union strength here unlike the industrial Midwest, and the base which made the South safe Democratic is 99% deceased.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 7,968
Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #9 on:
May 26, 2019, 11:09:05 PM »
Quote from: Skunk on May 25, 2019, 12:20:30 AM
Time travel to the 1990's.
I wish I could do this just about every day now.
Logged
Wazza [INACTIVE]
Wazza1901
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,983
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #10 on:
May 27, 2019, 12:33:10 AM »
Quote from: Averroës on May 25, 2019, 11:43:21 AM
Repeal the Civil Rights Act, along with a constitutional amendment or two.
Yes, clearly the
1964
Civil Rights Act is what caused Arkansas and West Virginia to become red states
in the 2000s
...
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
Posts: 14,155
Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #11 on:
May 27, 2019, 12:53:02 AM »
Quote from: KYWildman on May 26, 2019, 11:09:05 PM
Quote from: Skunk on May 25, 2019, 12:20:30 AM
Time travel to the 1990's.
I wish I could do this just about every day now.
Be careful what you wish for...
Logged
Averroës Nix
Averroës
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,811
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #12 on:
May 27, 2019, 05:04:33 AM »
«
Edited:
May 27, 2019, 08:14:32 AM
by
Averroës »
Quote from: Wazza1901 on May 27, 2019, 12:33:10 AM
Quote from: Averroës on May 25, 2019, 11:43:21 AM
Repeal the Civil Rights Act, along with a constitutional amendment or two.
Yes, clearly the
1964
Civil Rights Act is what caused Arkansas and West Virginia to become red states
in the 2000s
...
The question is about what would make them competitive
again
, not how they ceased to be competitive in the first place. Of course it's a bit of a nonsense question, for reasons AN69 describes in their post above.
Regarding which post, incidentally, I see no reason for Democrats to be sanguine about Mississippi. The state's black population is stagnant, it has a particularly high rural population share, it has no large metros, and it has about the lowest educational attainment in the country. Moreover, if there's one part of the country in which Democrats are unlikely to win over the kind of downscale white voters whom they've been losing in greater numbers since the '90s, it's the Deep South.
Logged
gracile
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,213
Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #13 on:
May 27, 2019, 09:47:31 AM »
Nothing. WV and AR are gone barring a massive realignment.
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
Posts: 3,703
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #14 on:
May 27, 2019, 09:54:08 AM »
Basically what morgieb said. Republicans become socially liberal/fiscally conservative while Democrats become the opposite. this would definitely put West Virginia in play, and possibly Arkansas, and much of the Deep South, too.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 7,968
Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #15 on:
May 27, 2019, 03:06:09 PM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on May 27, 2019, 12:53:02 AM
Quote from: KYWildman on May 26, 2019, 11:09:05 PM
Quote from: Skunk on May 25, 2019, 12:20:30 AM
Time travel to the 1990's.
I wish I could do this just about every day now.
Be careful what you wish for...
LOL, that doesn’t change anything. I WOULD stop 9/11. All it would take is stuffing a few ballot boxes in Florida. Or just teaching some old Jewish voters in Florida how to deal with Hanging Chads. Or just moving myself and a handful of friends to Florida.
Logged
AN63093
63093
Jr. Member
Posts: 886
Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 2.17
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #16 on:
May 28, 2019, 10:58:50 AM »
«
Edited:
May 28, 2019, 11:04:00 AM
by
AN63093 »
Quote from: Averroës on May 27, 2019, 05:04:33 AM
Quote from: Wazza1901 on May 27, 2019, 12:33:10 AM
Quote from: Averroës on May 25, 2019, 11:43:21 AM
Repeal the Civil Rights Act, along with a constitutional amendment or two.
Yes, clearly the
1964
Civil Rights Act is what caused Arkansas and West Virginia to become red states
in the 2000s
...
The question is about what would make them competitive
again
, not how they ceased to be competitive in the first place. Of course it's a bit of a nonsense question, for reasons AN69 describes in their post above.
Regarding which post, incidentally, I see no reason for Democrats to be sanguine about Mississippi. The state's black population is stagnant, it has a particularly high rural population share, it has no large metros, and it has about the lowest educational attainment in the country. Moreover, if there's one part of the country in which Democrats are unlikely to win over the kind of downscale white voters whom they've been losing in greater numbers since the '90s, it's the Deep South.
I don't want to derail this thread, so I'll primarily just refer back to my post above which has a link to a thread that goes in much, much more detail and has some good analysis within.. I'd invite you to review that thread. The one sentence summary is- none of those factors you mention are relevant, because growth is so low in MS and the GOP vote consists of mostly white seniors which will soon be outnumbered by the black vote such that it becomes mathematically impossible for the GOP to win there. This is, obviously, assuming the GOP continues to decisively lose the black vote, but I see no reason to not believe that will continue to be the case.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
Posts: 15,240
Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #17 on:
May 28, 2019, 11:01:39 AM »
A Democratic Night King to resurrect an undead army of Yellow Dogs.
Logged
Does the title even matter?
tara gilesbie
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,277
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #18 on:
May 29, 2019, 11:52:48 PM »
Quote from: RINO Tom on May 28, 2019, 11:01:39 AM
A Democratic Night King to resurrect an undead army of Yellow Dogs.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/WV/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=WVP00p1
Logged
538Electoral
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,749
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #19 on:
May 30, 2019, 04:09:36 AM »
Those states won't be won by Democrats again for decades at least.
Texas, Georgia, Florida, Virginia and North Carolina are southern states immediately possible for 2020. States like South Carolina and Mississippi may be within reach within a decade or two. The rest won't flip for a very long time.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
Posts: 15,240
Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #20 on:
May 30, 2019, 08:58:24 AM »
Quote from: Truth Hurts on May 29, 2019, 11:52:48 PM
Quote from: RINO Tom on May 28, 2019, 11:01:39 AM
A Democratic Night King to resurrect an undead army of Yellow Dogs.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/WV/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=WVP00p1
Not sure what knowledge you're trying to bestow upon me, but said Yellow Dogs would have been dead and/or so old as to not statistically affect the "60/65 and older" category quite a while ago.
Logged
RoboWop
AMB1996
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,438
Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #21 on:
June 01, 2019, 06:00:27 PM »
Run a third party.
Logged
cwh2018
Rookie
Posts: 105
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #22 on:
June 01, 2019, 06:25:02 PM »
Theses states appear to be safe for the foreseeable future for the GOP, the only way they will become competitive is if the democrats can start to win back ground with whites without college degrees. It appears that unless there is a genuine split in the conservative vote these states will not be won by the democrats for the next 20 years or so. If a GOP candidate were to be defeated on a scale similar to McGovern then they would probably flip.
Logged
Canis
canis
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,418
Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -6.26
Re: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?
«
Reply #23 on:
June 03, 2019, 02:56:56 PM »
Quote from: RINO Tom on May 30, 2019, 08:58:24 AM
Quote from: Truth Hurts on May 29, 2019, 11:52:48 PM
Quote from: RINO Tom on May 28, 2019, 11:01:39 AM
A Democratic Night King to resurrect an undead army of Yellow Dogs.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/WV/P/00/epolls.0.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=WVP00p1
Not sure what knowledge you're trying to bestow upon me, but said Yellow Dogs would have been dead and/or so old as to not statistically affect the "60/65 and older" category quite a while ago.
Yeah they just changed how they vote the 65+ Category backed Manchin in 2018
https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/west-virginia
Logged
Pages:
[
1
]
« previous
next »
Jump to:
Please select a destination:
-----------------------------
Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-----------------------------
=> 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
===> 2024 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
===> 2024 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=> 2020 U.S. Presidential Election
===> 2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
===> 2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=> U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results
===> 2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results
=> Presidential Election Process
===> Polling
=> Presidential Election Trends
=> Election What-ifs?
===> Past Election What-ifs (US)
===> Alternative Elections
===> International What-ifs
-----------------------------
Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
-----------------------------
=> Gubernatorial/State Elections
===> 2022 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2021 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls
=> Congressional Elections
===> 2022 Senate & House Election Polls
=> International Elections
=> Election Predictions
-----------------------------
About this Site
-----------------------------
===> How To
=> The Atlas
-----------------------------
General Discussion
-----------------------------
=> Constitution and Law
=> Religion & Philosophy
=> History
===> Alternative History
-----------------------------
General Politics
-----------------------------
=> U.S. General Discussion
=> Political Geography & Demographics
=> International General Discussion
=> Economics
=> Individual Politics
=> Political Debate
===> Political Essays & Deliberation
===> Book Reviews and Discussion
-----------------------------
Election Archive
-----------------------------
=> Election Archive
===> 2018 Senatorial Election Polls
===> 2018 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2016 U.S. Presidential Election
===> 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
===> 2016 Senatorial Election Polls
===> 2016 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
===> 2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=====> 2014 House Election Polls
=====> 2014 Senatorial Election Polls
===> 2012 Elections
=====> 2012 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2012 House Election Polls
=====> 2012 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
=====> 2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
=====> 2012 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2010 Elections
=====> 2010 House Election Polls
=====> 2010 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2010 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2008 Elections
=====> 2008 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2008 Gubernatorial Election Polls
=====> 2008 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign
=====> 2008 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
=====> 2008 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
===> 2006 Elections
=====> 2006 Senatorial Election Polls
=====> 2006 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election
=====> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Campaign
=====> 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Polls
===> Town Hall
===> Survivor
===> 2020 Gubernatorial Election Polls
===> 2020 Senate & House Election Polls
-----------------------------
Forum Community
-----------------------------
=> Forum Community
===> Forum Community Election Match-ups
=> Election and History Games
===> Mock Parliament
=> Off-topic Board
-----------------------------
Atlas Fantasy Elections
-----------------------------
=> Atlas Fantasy Elections
===> Voting Booth
=> Atlas Fantasy Government
===> Constitutional Convention
===> Regional Governments
1 Hour
1 Day
1 Week
1 Month
Forever
Login with username, password and session length
Terms of Service
-
DMCA Agent and Policy
-
Privacy Policy and Cookies
Powered by SMF 1.1.21
|
SMF © 2015, Simple Machines
Page created in 0.056 seconds with 12 queries.
Loading...