|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 30, 2020, 05:25:37 pm
News:
If you are having trouble logging in due to invalid user name / pass:

Consider resetting your account password, as you may have forgotten it over time if using a password manager.

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Rank the Losing Presidential Candidates
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Poll
Question: Which losing presidential candidate ran the best campaign?
#1
Hillary Clinton (2016)
#2
Mitt Romney (2012)
#3
John McCain (2008)
#4
John Kerry (2004)
#5
Al Gore (2000)
#6
Bob Dole (1996)
#7
George H.W. Bush (1992)
#8
Ross Perot (1992)
#9
Michael Dukakis (1988)
#10
Walter Mondale (1984)
#11
Jimmy Carter (1980)
#12
Gerald Ford (1976)
#13
George McGovern (1972)
#14
Hubert Humphrey (1968)
#15
George Wallace (1968)
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results


Author Topic: Rank the Losing Presidential Candidates  (Read 646 times)
АverroŽs 🦉

Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,880


Political Matrix
E: -2.10, S: 1.20

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 25, 2019, 09:44:29 am »

This discussion metastasized in a comment on the 2016 board, so I'm reposting it here.

Here is my full ranking of recent presidential losers by campaign effectiveness:

1. Kerry-04
2. Romney-12
3. Dukakis-88
4. Gore-00*
5. Humphrey-68*
6. Bush-92
7. Dole-96
8. McCain-08
9. Ford-76*
10. Mondale-84
11. Clinton-16*
12. Carter-80*
13. McGovern-72

Candidates marked with an asterisk botched an election that another candidate with a better campaign might have won. My opinion on Kerry, Romney, and Dukakis is that each did about as well as any candidate could have under the circumstances.

Who might have done better?

1968: RFK, although I think the consensus underrates Humphrey's campaign
1972: Literally anyone
1976: Reagan
1980: Jerry Brown
1984: Hart, but it still would have been a massive loss
1988: Biden, imagine him campaigning against H.W.!
1992: George H.W. Bush, but with Lee Atwater still alive
1996: IDK - definitely not anyone who was actually willing to run against Clinton.
2000: Not Bill Bradley. Maybe Jerry Brown.
2004: No one. Dean would have been a McGovern-type disaster. Clark, Gephardt, or Edwards would have been Mondale-type disasters.
2008: Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee
2012: Probably no one, but there's a just-plausible-enough-to-frighten case for Herman Cain.
2016: BERNIE WOULD HAVE WON (Biden too)

On a worrying note for Democrats, there's some correspondence with candidate age here. Candidates 65 or under pretty consistently perform about as well as could be expected. Notable exceptions are candidates like Carter and McGovern, who only broke through because of quirks in the reformed Democratic nomination process, and Ford, who barely won the Republican nominee because he stumbled into incumbency under bizarre circumstances.

1. Kerry-04 (60)
2. Romney-12 (65)
3. Dukakis-88 (55)
4. Gore-00* (52)
5. Humphrey-68* (57)
6. Bush-92 (68)
7. Dole-96 (73)
8. McCain-08 (72)
9. Ford-76* (63)
10. Mondale-84 (56)
11. Clinton-16* (69)
12. Carter-80* (56)
13. McGovern-72 (50)
Logged
L.D. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,752
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2019, 06:28:53 pm »

Well, actually, this idea was already done, so I'm just reposting how I see it. But I will look at the alternatives over whom could have won.


Admirable

1. Humphrey
2. Kerry

3. McCain

Mediocre

4. Carter '80
5. H. Clinton
6. Gore


Pathetic

7. Ford
8. Romney
9. Dole

10. Mondale

Outrageously Bad

11. G.H.W. Bush '92
12. McGovern
13. Dukakis


1968: RFK if he lived
1972: Anyone else but Wallace
1976: Reagan
1980: No one on the bench.
1984: Hart
1988: Literally anyone else, even Jesse Jackson.
1992: None, maybe Perot if Perot could be coaxed back to the GOP which he went to later anyway
1996: I have no idea with this one
2000: No one on the bench.
2004: Howard Dean
2008: No one, Romney would've been a Dole-esque disaster and Huckabee would've ended up like Goldwater at that time.
2012: No idea with this one, perhaps Huckabee if hadn't already seen the winds and said no.
2016: Biden
Logged
morgankingsley
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,053
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2019, 06:41:51 pm »

Well, actually, this idea was already done, so I'm just reposting how I see it. But I will look at the alternatives over whom could have won.


Admirable

1. Humphrey
2. Kerry

3. McCain

Mediocre

4. Carter '80
5. H. Clinton
6. Gore


Pathetic

7. Ford
8. Romney
9. Dole

10. Mondale

Outrageously Bad

11. G.H.W. Bush '92
12. McGovern
13. Dukakis


1968: RFK if he lived
1972: Anyone else but Wallace
1976: Reagan
1980: No one on the bench.
1984: Hart
1988: Literally anyone else, even Jesse Jackson.
1992: None, maybe Perot if Perot could be coaxed back to the GOP which he went to later anyway
1996: I have no idea with this one
2000: No one on the bench.
2004: Howard Dean
2008: No one, Romney would've been a Dole-esque disaster and Huckabee would've ended up like Goldwater at that time.
2012: No idea with this one, perhaps Huckabee if hadn't already seen the winds and said no.
2016: Biden


Nobody was going to beat Nixon in 72, literally nobody, most of these other ones I can agree with
Logged
President Biden
Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 8,949
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2019, 07:06:56 pm »

Kerry
Humphrey
Ford
Gore
McCain
Carter
Romney
Mondale
Dole
Bush
Clinton
Dukakis




McGovern (lol)
Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,410


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2019, 08:01:14 pm »

Well, actually, this idea was already done, so I'm just reposting how I see it. But I will look at the alternatives over whom could have won.


Admirable

1. Humphrey
2. Kerry

3. McCain

Mediocre

4. Carter '80
5. H. Clinton
6. Gore


Pathetic

7. Ford
8. Romney
9. Dole

10. Mondale

Outrageously Bad

11. G.H.W. Bush '92
12. McGovern
13. Dukakis


1968: RFK if he lived
1972: Anyone else but Wallace
1976: Reagan
1980: No one on the bench.
1984: Hart
1988: Literally anyone else, even Jesse Jackson.
1992: None, maybe Perot if Perot could be coaxed back to the GOP which he went to later anyway
1996: I have no idea with this one
2000: No one on the bench.
2004: Howard Dean
2008: No one, Romney would've been a Dole-esque disaster and Huckabee would've ended up like Goldwater at that time.
2012: No idea with this one, perhaps Huckabee if hadn't already seen the winds and said no.
2016: Biden



Lol no Jackson would have lost 48 to 49 states and i donít think any Dems would have won that year .
The economy was doing well and most voters believed so , foreign affairs was going well and you had at the time record popular incumbent (Only Clinton left with higher approvals ) so with those fundamentals no dem could have won .


2000 the GOP won cause Gore ran away from Clinton , you had a third party divide the vote from the incumbent party unlike 88 and generally the state of the union was pretty strong consistently for the preceding 13/16 years while in 88 things had really only started to be good from 84 on while the previous 11 years before that were pretty bad times so people had memories of bad times to compare with the situation in 88 unlike in 2000
Logged
Southern Delegate Spark
Spark498
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,279
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.88, S: -1.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2019, 08:15:25 pm »

1. Hubert Humphrey
2. John Kerry
3. Jimmy Carter
4. George H.W. Bush
5. Al Gore
6. John McCain
7. Bob Dole
8. Mitt Romney
9. Gerald Ford
10. Hillary Clinton
11. Walter Mondale
12. George McGovern
13. Michael Dukakis
Logged
Old School Republican
Computer89
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,410


Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -0.10

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2019, 08:59:55 pm »

General Election campaigns only


1. Humphrey
2. Ford
3. Kerry

4. McCain
5. Dole
6. Mondale
7. Carter

8. Gore
9. Romney
10. Dukakis  

11. Hillary
12.McGovern
13.HW Bush
Logged
RoboWop
AMB1996
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,739
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2019, 09:19:34 pm »

Ford '76 is the obvious answer. Gore and Humphrey for runners-up.
Logged
dw93
DWL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,103
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2019, 03:46:25 pm »

From best to worst:

1. Ford in 1976
2. Humphrey in 1968
3. Kerry in 2004
4. Gore in 2000


5. Carter 1980
6. McCain 2008
7. Dole 1996
8. Mondale 1984


9. Bush 1992
10. Romney 2012
11. Clinton 2016
12. McGovern 1972
13. Dukakis 1988


Green = Good campaigns, Gore's had crucial mistakes but his barely makes the cut as he was down double digits early in the general campaign.

Orange = Meh. Could've been better for sure, but these candidates had the odds against them, and in the case of Dole and Mondale, were sacrificial lambs that had no chance.

Red = These were bad campaigns. McGovern was the only one of this bunch that had no chance of winning. Bush had the odds against him, but even with Perot could've made it closer, while Clinton, Romney, and Dukakis (especially Clinton) could've won those respective elections and (especially in Dukakis's Romney's case) got their asses kicked.

Logged
dw93
DWL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,103
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2019, 07:26:51 pm »

Who Could've Done Better and/or won:

1968: Kennedy might've done better or even won, but I think Nixon still would've eeked out a win.
1972: Anyone would've done better, but Nixon certainly still would've won.
1976: Reagan at best would've done the same, but I think would've done worse. The Country just wasn't ready for Reagan yet.
1980: Kennedy would've done slightly better or slightly worse, but Reagan still wins regardless.
1984: Hart or even John Glenn would've fared better, but Reagan still wins big.
1988: Of all the candidates that ran, Gore, Gephardt, or even Biden could've beaten Bush or at least kept it much closer. There are other candidates that didn't run (Cuomo, Nunn) could've also won. A democratic win, if it happens would be close.
1992: Nope
1996: Only Colin Powell, who wouldn't run under any circumstance, would've fared better and might've even won. Everyone else would've fared the same or worse than Dole.
2000: Debatable. On the one hand, I doubt any other Democrat would've ran from Clinton's economic and even foreign policy record. On the other hand, someone other than Gore getting nominated makes it even more of an open election and could even say that Democrats themselves want a change from Clinton.
2004: Gephardt might've swung enough blue collar and union voters in Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico to win. Clark or Edwards would've been a toss up.  Dean would've fared the same.
2008: Absolutely not. Romney would've been crushed running in the midst of the financial crisis with his record at Bain and Huckabee would've due to his stance on Social Issues and the GOP base wasn't quite ready for populist economics.
2012: Huntsman would've if not for taking a cabinet position in the Obama administration. Everyone else would've done worse.
2016: Bernie or Biden would've won. WI, MI, and PA would've stayed in the Democratic column and all other close Hillary states would've stayed Dem for Biden or Bernie as well.
Logged
brucejoel99
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,108
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2019, 12:34:00 am »

1. Humphrey 1968
2. Ford 1976
3. Kerry 2004
4. McCain 2008
5. Gore 2000
6. Romney 2012
7. Dole 1996
8. Carter 1980
9. Mondale 1984
10. Clinton 2016
11. Bush 1992
12. McGovern 1972
13. Dukakis 1988
14. Perot 1992
Logged
President Pericles
Pericles
Atlas Politician
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,100

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2019, 12:15:23 am »

1. Ford 1976.
2. Humphrey 1968.
3. McCain 2008.
4. Kerry 2004.
5. Romney 2012.
6. Carter 1980.
7. Bush 1992.
8. Mondale 1984.
9. Clinton 2016.
10. Gore 2000.
11. Dukakis 1988.
12. McGovern 1972.
Logged
Gramscian-Bidenist
PeteHam
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,274
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2019, 05:56:06 am »
« Edited: August 15, 2019, 08:17:03 am by Celes »

This is just based on their campaigns, not what I think of them. Just how they objectively ran their candidacies.

Rankings
1. Kerry '04
2. Humphrey '68
3. McCain '08
4. Mondale '84
5. Clinton '16
6. Anderson '80
7. Romney '12
8. Gore '00
9. Bush '92
10. Perot '92
11. Ford '76
12. Dole '96
13. McGovern '72
14. Carter '80
15. Perot '96
16. Dukakis '88

Who Could've Done Better
1968: Probably RFK.
1972: None of the Democratic field was going to win, in all likelihood. Best bet would've been Harold Hughes of Iowa.
1976: Reagan.
1980: Carter could've held on to a good bit more. Could've even won. It was just a haphazard campaign.
1984: Hart, or Glenn.
1988: Literally anyone else would've done much better. I'm curious how Paul Simon does.
1992: Nah.
1996: Nobody was going to have an easy time beating Bill Clinton, but maybe Howard Baker? Jack Kemp?
2000: Not Bill Bradley.
2004: Nobody.
2008: Nobody.
2012: There is a terrifying universe in which Rick Perry is president from 2013 to 2021. 
2016: Any other Democrat that ran besides Lincoln Chafee, plus Biden. Sanders, O'Malley, Webb, or Biden would've absolutely clobbered Trump.
Logged
L.D. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,752
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2019, 03:37:11 pm »

Well, actually, this idea was already done, so I'm just reposting how I see it. But I will look at the alternatives over whom could have won.


Admirable

1. Humphrey
2. Kerry

3. McCain

Mediocre

4. Carter '80
5. H. Clinton
6. Gore


Pathetic

7. Ford
8. Romney
9. Dole

10. Mondale

Outrageously Bad

11. G.H.W. Bush '92
12. McGovern
13. Dukakis


1968: RFK if he lived
1972: Anyone else but Wallace
1976: Reagan
1980: No one on the bench.
1984: Hart
1988: Literally anyone else, even Jesse Jackson.
1992: None, maybe Perot if Perot could be coaxed back to the GOP which he went to later anyway
1996: I have no idea with this one
2000: No one on the bench.
2004: Howard Dean
2008: No one, Romney would've been a Dole-esque disaster and Huckabee would've ended up like Goldwater at that time.
2012: No idea with this one, perhaps Huckabee if hadn't already seen the winds and said no.
2016: Biden


Nobody was going to beat Nixon in 72, literally nobody, most of these other ones I can agree with

No disagreement there. But anyone else could've at least held The Northeast up. But Wallace probably would've lost everywhere except maybe MS/AL.
Logged
mathstatman
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,938
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 03, 2019, 09:26:26 am »
« Edited: June 03, 2019, 09:31:02 am by mathstatman »

Goldwater: poor
Humphrey: very good
Wallace: morally pathetic, but strategically OK (except for his selection of Gen. Curtis LeMay)
McGovern: very poor
Ford: decent
Carter: decent
Mondale: poor
Dukakis: very poor
Bush: poor
Perot: decent for a 3rd choice
Dole: poor
Gore: decent
Kerry: good
McCain: decent, except for his selection of Palin
Romney: fair
Clinton: fair at best (only because she didn't win)

Who could have done better:
1964: Rockefeller (he'd still lose though)
1968: RFK had he lived
1972: Ted Kennedy (according to Gallup)
1976: Reagan
1980: Ted Kennedy
1984: Hart or Glenn
1988: Gore or Gephardt
1992: no one
1996: no one
2000: no one
2004: no one
2008: no one
2012: Ron Paul maybe?
2016: would Sanders have done better? Fewer young white lefties would have voted third party, so yes, by just enough.
Logged
RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,401
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: June 03, 2019, 10:55:05 am »

Some weird combination of ideology, how much I wanted them to win and personal fondness:

Bob Dole (R-KS)
Mitt Romney (R-MA)
Gerald Ford (R-MI)
George H.W. Bush (R-TX)
John McCain (R-AZ)
Hubert Humphrey (D-MN)
Hillary Clinton (D-NY)
Ross Perot (I-TX)
Jimmy Carter (D-GA)
Walter Mondale (D-MN)
Michael Dukakis (D-MA)
George McGovern (D-SD)
John Kerry (D-MA)
Al Gore (D-TN)
George Wallace (AI-AL)
Logged
Mondale
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,569
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: June 03, 2019, 11:39:53 am »

No one comes close to Hillary. All of the other candidates ran against legitimate and serious opponents. Losing to Trump challenges every notion held about Democracy and how serious the voters are
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines