No, he would not have won. Yes, a muslim can win statewide in Michigan. He would have lost because of his policies, not his religion.
Whitmer won by 10 points. Are you claiming there would have been a ten point shift against him if he were the nominee? This means that one in twenty voters (over one in eleven Whitmer voters) would have had instead voted for the Republican if El-Sayed had been nominated.
Is this your contention?
This is the correct answer. You cant honestly argue that El-Sayed being the candidate would have caused a literal 10 point shift in favor of the Republicans. The Blue Wave midterm, the unpopular former governor, the Anti-Trump sentiment, none of this would suddenly be overturned by Abdul's candidacy.