Most vulnerable downballot incumbents for row officers in 2020 and 2022

[jamestroll]

Right now the most vulnerable in 2022 may be Nicole Galloway of Missouri but still early.

If Trump wins reelection the GA, AZ and TX row officers would be in big trouble. If a Democrat wins, many of the row officers in Michigan and Wisconsin will have trouble.

[jamestroll]

I wonder how Kim Wyman will perform next year. I have a hunch she will probably win re-election. WA-Treasurer is probably done. I remember it was R v R. Oregon Secretary of State may flip back to the Democrats.

John Perdue lol! He could win re-election but the thing is that his office is useless essentially and he is too old to be used for future offices. He clearly won 2016 due to name ID. He may as well run for Gov in 2020. So I agree there.


We may not always be this polarized and interesting things will happen down ballot from time to time but these offices being so low profile will be the most D vs R generic going forward.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Bev Clarno, Oregon's Secretary of State who was appointed when Dennis Richardson passed away comes to mind, although she probably won't even run for a full term since she's 83. Unless Democrats run a bad candidate like they did in 2016, they should easily pick up the office.

Another noteworthy office to watch is MT-AG. Since Tim Fox is running for governor, it's open, and Montana still has a lot of split-ticketing.

IN-AG could be interesting. Curtis Hill has a couple scandals swirling around him, and if he runs for reelection, could put the office in play.

All of North Carolina's row officers usually have close races. Two open ones are the LG and Commissioner of Labor.

[Politician]

The Republican treasurer of Washington won in a top-two fluke and is basically DOA.

The Republican SOS of Oregon was appointed after Richardson died and won't run for a full term. This office looks very likely to flip back to the Democrats.

[LoneStarDem]

NC: I can see the Dems winning back Lieutenant Governor in 2020 if they have a strong candidate.

OR: Secretary of State's most likely going back to the Dems.

[Bidenworth2020]

The Republican Treasurer of Washington won by a fluke in 2016, so he seems like a likely 2020 contender. And John Perdue in WV obviously (who should honestly just run for Governor instead).

And yeah, Galloway will need to hope for a miracle again. Might be better for her to take one for the team and run for Senate regardless that year, and use a respectable loss there to run for Gov in 2024.

The guy still won by 7 in 2016. I could easily see him holding on.

[S019]

Nicole Galloway

Josh Stein

[Xing]

Davidson is definitely going to have a hard time, since it won't be another R vs. R race. Wyman is potentially vulnerable, but she's done a decent job of presenting herself as "moderate", so she's not going to be as easy to beat.

[LoneStarDem]

NC Dems will keep the State AG office in 2020.

MO State Auditor not up until 2022.

[Boobs]

Barbara Cegavske in NV

Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton in TX

Mark Brnovich and Kimberly Yee in AZ

The remaining Demosaurs in WV are probably goners

[LoneStarDem]

Barbara Cegavske in NV

Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton in TX

Mark Brnovich and Kimberly Yee in AZ

The remaining Demosaurs in WV are probably goners

Are you referring to the ones on the WV Supreme Court ?

[Roll Roons]

Barbara Cegavske in NV

Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton in TX

Mark Brnovich and Kimberly Yee in AZ

The remaining Demosaurs in WV are probably goners

Agree on Patrick and Paxton, especially if 2022 is a Trump midterm. Those two are far less popular than Abbott, and it's very plausible that he (and George P.) survive while they don't.

[LoneStarDem]

Barbara Cegavske in NV

Dan Patrick and Ken Paxton in TX

Mark Brnovich and Kimberly Yee in AZ

The remaining Demosaurs in WV are probably goners

Agree on Patrick and Paxton, especially if 2022 is a Trump midterm. Those two are far less popular than Abbott, and it's very plausible that he (and George P.) survive while they don't.

Collier might run for TX Lieutenant Governor again in 2022. He came within 4-6 percentage points.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Everything in GA except Ag Commissioner.