Which VA County has more raw votes in 2021?
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  Which VA County has more raw votes in 2021?
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Poll
Question: Which VA County has more raw votes in 2021?
#1
Loudoun
 
#2
Virginia Beach
 
#3
Prince William
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 32

Author Topic: Which VA County has more raw votes in 2021?  (Read 1023 times)
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 29, 2021, 11:32:55 PM »

For reference.  2020 numbers:

Virginia Beach = 227,561

Loudoun = 224,862

Prince William = 228,056
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 30, 2021, 01:10:24 PM »

VA Beach???
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Abdullah
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« Reply #2 on: October 30, 2021, 02:16:14 PM »

This is an interesting question, unfortunately it seems that it's receiving a lack of attention

I'm gonna go with Loudoun because of population growth and affluence resulting in higher turnout
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #3 on: October 30, 2021, 02:17:31 PM »

I'm gonna go with Loudoun because of population growth and affluence resulting in higher turnout
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: October 30, 2021, 02:48:03 PM »

This is an interesting question, unfortunately it seems that it's receiving a lack of attention

I'm gonna go with Loudoun because of population growth and affluence resulting in higher turnout

Completely agree, just on population growth alone. 
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Chips
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« Reply #5 on: October 30, 2021, 03:21:37 PM »

Loudoun seems most likely.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #6 on: October 30, 2021, 09:09:22 PM »

Loudoun easily. Population growth will already put it past VA beach and PWC, it's voters are higher propensity so more of them will vote in an off-year election. The focus on Loudoun County in this election specifically will boost turnout further.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2021, 09:24:48 PM »

BTW, these are early vote numbers as of yesterday:

Loudoun: 49,263

Prince William: 52,484 (this one trending up spectacularly this past week - not sure why)

Virginia Beach: 48,825
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: October 30, 2021, 09:51:52 PM »

https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/population-change/

Important to note that even though Loudoun is growing fastest of the three, Prince William also grew a lot the past decade and is still by far the most populated of the three counties even though its turnout tends to be a bit lower.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #9 on: October 30, 2021, 11:12:51 PM »

https://www.vpap.org/visuals/visual/population-change/

Important to note that even though Loudoun is growing fastest of the three, Prince William also grew a lot the past decade and is still by far the most populated of the three counties even though its turnout tends to be a bit lower.
Hmm, interesting. Early voting might put PW County on top...
I didn't think of it from that angle before.
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Xing
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« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2021, 12:19:00 AM »

I would guess Loudoun, but it’s a good question.
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2021, 08:27:47 PM »

Do we know where this turnout is from in PW?
Something is not being caught by polls or the news.
This could mean many things and have several different potential implications depending on who is turning out.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2021, 10:25:50 PM »

Do we know where this turnout is from in PW?
Something is not being caught by polls or the news.
This could mean many things and have several different potential implications depending on who is turning out.

No but if you believe TargetSmart it is being modeled as having an extremely extremely D tilt:

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2021?amp%3Bamp%3Bgeo=All&amp%3Bamp%3Bgeo_type=statewide&amp%3Bamp%3Bstate=VA&demo_filters=%5B%7B%22key%22%3A%22modeledParty%22%2C%22value%22%3A%22All%22%7D%5D&geo=Prince%20William&geo_type=counties&state=VA
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Abdullah
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« Reply #13 on: November 12, 2021, 10:01:57 PM »

Votes are in:

162,197 - Virginia Beach
161,794 - Loudoun
153,218 - Prince William

Compare to 2020:

For reference.  2020 numbers:

Virginia Beach = 227,561
Loudoun = 224,862
Prince William = 228,056
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: November 12, 2021, 10:05:25 PM »

Votes are in:

162,197 - Virginia Beach
161,794 - Loudoun
153,218 - Prince William

Compare to 2020:

For reference.  2020 numbers:

Virginia Beach = 227,561
Loudoun = 224,862
Prince William = 228,056

Wow Loudoun almost made it.
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