I remember several months ago someone wrote an opinion column that Beshear's campaign might turn out just like that of Jack Conway in 2015, based on Beshear's campaign style compared to Conway's style.
I'll keep observing this race, but I do see the potential for it to shape out like that.
Beshear has at least four things going for him Conway didn’t:
1. He has never lost a statewide race. Conway was tainted by his failed Senate bid against Rand Paul.
2. His name. Steve Beshear won two landslides within the last 12 years, and remains a popular figure in the state.
3. Beshear actually won (albeit narrowly) a statewide race the same year Conway lost to Bevin, 2015, which was generally a really bad turnout year, especially for Democrats. Turnout should actually FAVOR Democrats this year, given both Bevin’s unpopularity and the national partisan climate that should motivate Democrats more.
4. Bevin was still pretty unknown at the time and people were willing to roll the dice on him after eight years of Democratic leadership and a lackluster Democratic candidate. Now, however, people know him, and they HATE him. He IS the least popular governor in the country. Incumbency will be a DISADVANTAGE for him.
Moreover, the state Democratic Party should be pretty united around Beshear, while Bevin’s support is lackluster even among his own party — rank and file voters AND legislators (who have mutinied against Bevin) AND elites (i.e. McConnell, who hasn’t forgotten Bevin tried to primary him) all dislike Bevin.
The man is Kentucky Fried Chicken. Anyone who can’t see that because “muh partisan lean” is woefully ignorant of Kentucky state politics to an embarrassing degree. By the same logic Charlie Baker was doomed to fail in 2018. I would have thought this board of all places would know that state politics do not equal national politics, and this is even more true in certain states (including Kentucky) than others. But I guess the temptation to write Kentucky off as nothing but a bunch of stupid hicks who will vote Republican for every office until the end of time is too strong...
Anyone who is actually voting anything stronger for Bevin than Toss-Up/Tilt Bevin either has their head buried deep in the sand or is so ignorant about the race they shouldn’t be voting in this poll.
Poll
