Tossup, although Tilt R if forced to choose. You could definitely make a case for Lean R, but I really don’t buy the Safe R KY meme.
KY-SEN 2020 is Safe R, but this race isn’t.
How would such a map look? It’s not hard for me to envision Beshear getting to around 45#•% (just a bit better than Jim Gray’s performance), but after that I’m stumped. He needs either red suburbs to go his way or a resurrection of coal mining Dems
He does most likely need to win over a large number of ancestral Democrats in Coal Country, which is why I believe Rocky Adkins would have been a better candidate than Beshear, but oh well. I suppose it's possible Beshear could still win by swinging the suburbs way to the left and winning back a couple rural counties, but I wouldn't count on it.
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