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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Would Abdul El Sayed have won? and can a Muslim win statewide in michigan
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Author Topic: Would Abdul El Sayed have won? and can a Muslim win statewide in michigan  (Read 658 times)
Canis
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« on: May 24, 2019, 12:01:50 am »

Inspired by a thread I saw on DKE would he have won in 2018 and could he win statewide for some other office
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Ses
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« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2019, 12:20:14 am »

Yes - and, by extension, yes to your second question.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2019, 01:07:45 am »

No, he would not have won. Yes, a muslim can win statewide in Michigan. He would have lost because of his policies, not his religion.
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Ses
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« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2019, 01:12:05 am »

No, he would not have won. Yes, a muslim can win statewide in Michigan. He would have lost because of his policies, not his religion.

Whitmer won by 10 points. Are you claiming there would have been a ten point shift against him if he were the nominee? This means that one in twenty voters (over one in eleven Whitmer voters) would have had instead voted for the Republican if El-Sayed had been nominated.

Is this your contention?
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Skunk
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« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2019, 01:27:30 am »

No, he would not have won. Yes, a muslim can win statewide in Michigan. He would have lost because of his policies, not his religion.
lol
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2019, 01:31:33 am »

No, he would not have won. Yes, a muslim can win statewide in Michigan. He would have lost because of his policies, not his religion.

Whitmer won by 10 points. Are you claiming there would have been a ten point shift against him if he were the nominee? This means that one in twenty voters (over one in eleven Whitmer voters) would have had instead voted for the Republican if El-Sayed had been nominated.

Is this your contention?
Yes. I think the RGA and DGA would've shifted funds in and out respectively.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2019, 02:34:14 am »

Probably. But only probably. The logic of “He could only lose if some people who voted for Gretchen voted against him” doesn’t hold up because Gretchen could only win by as much as she did by winning people who voted for Donald Trump, and Donald Trump could only win at all by winning some people who voted for Barack Obama. Never assume that all the candidates in a party are interchangeable with each other and would necessarily have gotten all or even almost all of the same voters as the other candidates.

Snyder was unpopular and it was a blue wave year, so any Democrat would have been favored, which is why I say he still probably wins, but it might have been narrower. Again, Gretchen won a number of Obama-Trump voters, which was enough to flip several Obama-Trump counties and basically completely reverse the state’s partisan swing from 2012 to 2016. It is far from a certainty that a Muslim associated with the leftmost wing of the party who was endorsed by such figures as Michael Moore, Shaun King, and AOC would have won as many of those voters/counties back from Trump. Yeah, there’s a significant Muslim population in Michigan and he might have slightly outperformed Whitmer in those areas, but if he couldn’t make gains elsewhere it might have been close or even a loss.
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From Prussia With Love
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« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2019, 05:59:14 am »

No, he would’ve been kicked off the ballot due to residence issues.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2019, 06:17:06 am »
« Edited: May 24, 2019, 06:46:27 am by Councilor Zaybay »

No, he would not have won. Yes, a muslim can win statewide in Michigan. He would have lost because of his policies, not his religion.

Whitmer won by 10 points. Are you claiming there would have been a ten point shift against him if he were the nominee? This means that one in twenty voters (over one in eleven Whitmer voters) would have had instead voted for the Republican if El-Sayed had been nominated.

Is this your contention?

This is the correct answer. You cant honestly argue that El-Sayed being the candidate would have caused a literal 10 point shift in favor of the Republicans. The Blue Wave midterm, the unpopular former governor, the Anti-Trump sentiment, none of this would suddenly be overturned by Abdul's candidacy.
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Speaker of the Lincoln Council S019
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« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2019, 06:50:25 am »

Yes, but probably by 5-7, rather than 10, so by extension, yes
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President Biden
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« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2019, 06:56:44 am »

Yes, but by only around 5 and he loses Gogebic, Bay, Kent, Clinton and Macomb counties.
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Oashigo
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« Reply #11 on: May 24, 2019, 07:21:20 am »

Yes and Yes, but he would have won by significantly less. Probably would have dragged down Dana Nessel.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2019, 07:55:38 am »

Yes, but it would have been unnecessarily tight, and far from a guaranteed win.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2019, 03:37:26 pm »

NEVER! Nobody is ever going to vote for a Muslim for statewide office ever!
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2019, 04:22:48 pm »
« Edited: May 24, 2019, 11:14:47 pm by Roll Roons »

NEVER! Nobody is ever going to vote for a Muslim for statewide office ever!

AG Doug Wardlow agrees.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #15 on: May 24, 2019, 09:17:57 pm »

NEVER! Nobody is ever going to vote for a Muslim for statewide office ever!

Attorney General Keith Ellison says hello
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #16 on: May 24, 2019, 11:06:05 pm »

Probably, but it would have been a Nessel/Leonard margin instead of the 10-point blowout that Whitmer won by. Nessel probably would have lost at that point. Shri Thanedar would have been a complete and utter disaster had he won the nomination.
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PQG and Libertarian Republican Pimp Slapped Coronavirus!
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« Reply #17 on: May 25, 2019, 03:52:10 pm »

Yes, but by only around 5 and he loses Gogebic, Bay, Kent, Clinton and Macomb counties.

This, and is also noted, he probably would have dragged down nessel
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Mondale
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« Reply #18 on: May 25, 2019, 03:53:35 pm »

Honestly...he probably could of won but it would of been a narrow victory. Let's not fool ourselves
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#Joemala2020
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« Reply #19 on: May 25, 2019, 06:09:10 pm »

The fear mongering and misinformation would have been out of control. I think he would have won though.
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NoobMaster69
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« Reply #20 on: May 26, 2019, 02:51:43 pm »

He could have won if the state deemed him eligible on residency grounds which from what I've seen he was really pushing it.
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