If a Dem is elected in 2020 with this map, how long till GA/TX Flip

[OSR stands with Israel]

Biden/Harris 289
Trump/Pence 249



And the results of GA and TX is


GA: Trump + 1.9%
TX: Trump + 6.4%



Ill say GA still flips in 2024 in a reelection map  , TX on the other hand probably stays Republican for the rest of the decade and its pointless predicting trends past that point

[Sir Mohamed]

I say it happens in 2024 if that said prez is reelected with a majority of the national PV. If he or she is defeated, it happens as soon as the next Dem gets in the WH (2028 or 2032). Would be hilarious but not surprising if FL stays GOP by less than 2% in this scenario.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I say it happens in 2024 if that said prez is reelected with a majority of the national PV. If he or she is defeated, it happens as soon as the next Dem gets in the WH (2028 or 2032). Would be hilarious but not surprising if FL stays GOP by less than 2% in this scenario.

You think TX could make an over 6 point swing to the Dems with a Dem in the WH , I really doubt it unless the Republicans really blow it .

[Sir Mohamed]

I say it happens in 2024 if that said prez is reelected with a majority of the national PV. If he or she is defeated, it happens as soon as the next Dem gets in the WH (2028 or 2032). Would be hilarious but not surprising if FL stays GOP by less than 2% in this scenario.

You think TX could make an over 6 point swing to the Dems with a Dem in the WH , I really doubt it unless the Republicans really blow it .

The Rust Belt States made similar swings in 2016. Not saying it would flip, but I think it's probably going to happen if the Dems wins nationally with more than 50%.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I say it happens in 2024 if that said prez is reelected with a majority of the national PV. If he or she is defeated, it happens as soon as the next Dem gets in the WH (2028 or 2032). Would be hilarious but not surprising if FL stays GOP by less than 2% in this scenario.

You think TX could make an over 6 point swing to the Dems with a Dem in the WH , I really doubt it unless the Republicans really blow it .

The Rust Belt States made similar swings in 2016. Not saying it would flip, but I think it's probably going to happen if the Dems wins nationally with more than 50%.

Well I think the margin matters more than above 50% a 51-47 win likely doesnt change much of the map above at all . I think if a Dem wins narrowly in 2024 TX might swing back to the right as long as the Republicans nominate someone like Nikki Haley or even DeSantis rather than Pence .  


TX for it to flip by 2024 either a landslide Dem win in 2020 in which case TX flips narrowly or Trump gets reelected in which case TX does flip.


Also for the Rust Belt , the GOP was not in the WH in 2016. Trends  take longer time to materialize when your party is in the WH then when your party is out of the WH

[Politician]

Georgia: 2024
Texas: 2032 or 2036

[cvparty]

texas results compared with arizona are weird here considering it has more hostile demographics for the gop

[Person Man]

The next Democratic President will win Georgia. Maybe the Democrat after that wins Texas. I am certain of the former.