Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1348600545611837442

How much was the margin between the two of them last time?

[Real Texan Politics]

How much was the margin between the two of them last time?

He won by 100,000 votes while Kemp only won by 55,000 votes in the same election. Maybe Carr might not be as toast as Kemp is? Seems more like tossup/tilt R for Carr while for Kemp vs Abrams rematch it's probably lean D.

My guess is a handful of Trump supporters either sit out the governor election or vote third party while simultaneously voting for Carr. Kemp could lose by 3 to Abrams but Carr still wins by like 1% or less.

And if Carr does win, it'll probably be the last time a republican wins the attorney general election for a long time.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/yashar/status/1353906565204504576

That or he's grooming Doug Collins to primary Kemp. Of course he won't endorse Kemp and there's no way he's endorsing Abrams either.

[Real Texan Politics]

AJC/UGA statewide poll, Jan. 17-28, 858 RV


Approval/disapproval:

President Biden (approval of transition): 59/33 (strongly 41/27)

Former President Trump: 40/57 (strongly 29/48)

Gov. Kemp: 42/51 (strongly 10/29)

Secretary of State Raffensperger: 46/32 (strongly 22/20)


Favorable/unfavorable:

President Biden: 52/41

Sen. Ossoff: 50/40

Sen. Warnock: 54/37

Stacey Abrams: 51/41

Democratic Party: 50/44

Republican Party: 34/59

Wow that strongly approval rating for Kemp

He's finished.

[Real Texan Politics]

Vernon Jones hinting at a gubernatorial run.
https://twitter.com/repvernonjones/status/1380890993373876228?s=21

[Real Texan Politics]

Vernon Jones is a clown and he'd go nowhere in a Georgia GOP primary for obvious reasons (hint: it starts with an r, and ends in -ace), especially since North Georgia white people, who are a significant chunk of said primary electorate, are extremely racist.

If it ends up being Kemp vs Jones then it's pretty obvious who's gonna get Trump's endorsement, and it most certainly won't be Kemp so that kinda narrows it down. Whether Trump's endorsement of Jones helps him or not, I don't know, and especially if Doug Collins also runs and splits the Trumpist votes making Kemp the nominee (and getting his butt kicked and bruised by Stacey Abrams in the end).

[Real Texan Politics]

Vernon Jones is in....sorta. The official announcement is pending, so take this as his unofficial announcement.
https://twitter.com/repvernonjones/status/1381371091680178179?s=21

[Real Texan Politics]

Vernon Jones is in....sorta. The official announcement is pending, so take this as his unofficial announcement.
https://twitter.com/repvernonjones/status/1381371091680178179?s=21

I thought he would be going for Senate. I guess he's afraid Walker in the primary. Though I wonder what happens to Collins and what he'll do.

Collins may end up going for senate as well.

[Real Texan Politics]

Vernon Jones to (presumptively as of now) announce his gubernatorial campaign tomorrow morning at 10am EST at the Georgia State Capitol in Atlanta.
https://twitter.com/RepVernonJones/status/1382773451547684864?s=20

[Real Texan Politics]

Vernon Jones is a clown and he'd go nowhere in a Georgia GOP primary for obvious reasons (hint: it starts with an r, and ends in -ace), especially since North Georgia white people, who are a significant chunk of said primary electorate, are extremely racist.

Would Jones win Forsyth County, GA?

In the general, absolutely, in the primary, I have no idea.

Probably depends on how alive racism still is there. I obviously know it was a sundown county in the past (not sure if it still is today). I'm sure the racists will vote for Kemp but I'm sure there are enough Trumpers in Forsyth that'll vote for Jones anyways regardless of his race.

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/beeforgeorgia/status/1389521407420375042?s=21

Cringe pun, but does she have a chance to win? Let alone "bee" the dem nominee?

[Real Texan Politics]

I suppose I'll post this here--AJC/UGA poll, conducted April 20-May 3, 844 RV, MoE: 3.4%.

Approvals/favorabilities
Joe Biden: 51/45 (+6)
Brian Kemp: 45/49 (-4) and 69/25 (+44) among Republicans.
Jon Ossoff: 48/40 (+8)
Raphael Warnock: 48/41 (+7)
Stacey Abrams: 48/45 (+3)
Donald Trump: 45/50 (-5)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IbJP58EcsG2W_L-A6gnb81blnIhfAFoP/view

Curious to know about Herschel Walker's approval ratings, but I doubt there's information about that?

[Real Texan Politics]

What is the magic number for GA Dems to win the Legislature? Because if Gov. Stacey Abrams exists in 2023, how will she get her agenda done with a hostile Republican Legislature? It will be just like Tony Evers or Gretchen Whitmer in the Midwest

91 and it’s not going to happen. At the very least Abrams knows the major players as Former Minority Leader.

Then what does Gov. Abrams get passed? A HOPE scholarship extension? A 5-year tax cut?

Probably executive orders to get rid of the voter ID law and to sandblast that confederate monument on Stone Mountain (if that's really a big priority for her).

[Real Texan Politics]

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/tobin-entertainment-presents-a-conversation-with-stacey-abrams-a-national-speaking-tour-with-a-twelve-city-schedule-301292768.html

Preparing for a governor run by doing a.......nationwide speaking tour???

Either that or she's gearing up name recognition for a future presidential run (2028?).

[Real Texan Politics]

Vernon Jones attacking Kemp for staying in Georgia while Jones is in.......Arizona??
https://twitter.com/RepVernonJones/status/1402679916030840837?s=20

[Real Texan Politics]

With Kemp recently saying he was open to taking in Afghan refugees in Georgia, maybe Vernon's chances of successfully primarying Kemp have gone up?

[Real Texan Politics]

Is it possible for Abrams to get 50% outright and avoid a run-off? Or are there some green or minor dem candidates who render such a scenario near Impossible?

If turnout is insanely high for dems (Abrams effect) and embarrassingly low for republicans (assuming Kemp is the nominee) then it's certainly possible.

[Real Texan Politics]

If Stacy somehow pulls this out in a republican midterm (not likely, but also wouldn't be completely shocked), does this make GA lean D heading into 2024?

I could see it, she'll do anything within her power to turn Georgia into a solid dem state.

[Real Texan Politics]

Abrams raised $9.8M from May 1-June 30, compared to Kemp's $3.8m.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/abrams-builds-huge-financial-edge-over-kemp-in-2022/AOJSW2OBBRAJHMQCVFQ2YDWV4A/

I would imagine most is from out of state?