Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[GALeftist]

It's been almost two weeks since I requested my absentee ballot (for the second time; the first request didn't go through somehow) and it still hasn't arrived in the mail. Apropos of nothing, just wanted to vent

[GALeftist]

It's been almost two weeks since I requested my absentee ballot (for the second time; the first request didn't go through somehow) and it still hasn't arrived in the mail. Apropos of nothing, just wanted to vent

Have you checked the status of your ballot to make sure it was mailed?

https://www.mvp.sos.ga.gov/  <-- Enter your name, DOB & county:

Yep, issued September 28. Maybe it'll get here today ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[GALeftist]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/527882-trump-im-ashamed-that-i-endorsed-kemp-in-georgia

If a Trump loyalist runs as a third-party in 2022, that could give Stacey Abrams a massive boost (in what theoretically would be considered a Republican year)

lol what a great party

[GALeftist]

Lol, I just went to drop off my absentee ballot and there was some NEET lookin kid in a Trump shirt like examining the dropbox and trying to look in and stuff, he came up to me and asked if it was locked (the dropbox was working fine). Claimed to be "canvassing." The GOP certainly has a devoted base

[GALeftist]

Ballot was just accepted today, the tracking system seems a little worse than it was in the general though.

[GALeftist]

Why do so many people think Kemp is doomed? This is strange take.

Georgia just barely went for Biden and Kemp is an incumbent. I would say he is favored for now.

Kemp is getting blasted from the left and the right, so he seems pretty vulnerable, plus Georgia has been known to not care that much about midterms.

[GALeftist]

Lukewarm take: If Hice beats Raffensperger, which he's probably favored to do, GA-SOS is farther left than GA-GOV, although both shift left substantially. I mean, this man is cuckoo for cocoa puffs, he's on record opposing separation of church and state and calling supporters of abortion worse than Hitler (winning message in Cobb).

[GALeftist]

I'm starting to get the feeling that 10 years down the line the GAGOP is going to look back at this moment as their Prop 187 moment.

I can see the reasoning for this argument, but for it to be valid, the GOP would have to have black votes they would lose because of it.

Maybe not that many black votes, but I could see a substantial number of white voters taking the plunge earlier than they would have otherwise.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/Perduesenate/status/1461037898808102918

What is even happening anymore

Anyways I hope he primaries Kemp. A Perdue for Governor, Walker for Senate slate would be peak GAGOP

[GALeftist]

Looks awfully good for Dickens, he's up by 20 with just the early vote in.

[GALeftist]

40% of the vote in, Dickens now up 62-38.

Feel pretty comfortable calling it for Dickens at this point.

[GALeftist]

Me gustan los subtítulos en español. Multilingual outreach was critical to recent Democratic victories in Georgia, and it looks like the people in the party have realized this. (Take notes Florida Democrats )

[GALeftist]

This is Likely D.  GEORGIA is a blue state

Really interested in your take as a local. Do you think Kemp is a weaker or stronger opponent for Abrams?

Kemp is definitely weaker than he was in 2018; back then, he at least had the unanimous support of his own party, but it's pretty obvious that that's no longer the case. It's certainly possible that the GAGOP patches things up after an ugly primary, but I'd say it's still cause for alarm. Rightly or wrongly, the consternation over Abrams's refusal to concede in 2018 is mostly an online phenomenon, she still seems highly popular among suburban voters in Atlanta from what I can tell. The obvious downside for Abrams is that 2022 looks likely to be a favorable year for Republicans nationwide, but then again, Georgia has historically been relatively insulated from national swings (although that doesn't necessarily mean that this is a general rule!). This is a tossup race if there is one, but gun to my head Abrams squeaks it out.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1466192396883050496

THANK YOU GOD-EMPEROR

[GALeftist]

You hate to see it, but more than that, you love to see it.

[GALeftist]

People are really overestimating Abrams here.

Agreed. Anecdotes don't decide elections, but a decent share of people I know in Georgia who voted for Biden, Warnock, and Ossoff don't care for Abrams after she refused to concede the 2018 election. Granted, these people largely are country club Republican types who live in Buckhead and Sandy Springs who retain some Republican affinity, but most of them did vote for Abrams 3 years ago.

Not saying you're wrong, but I know quite a few of these types of people personally and very few of them even know that she didn't concede, and a lot of the ones that do think (as do I) that it was a frivolous but ultimately mostly harmless statement about draconian election laws whose absence might have forced Kemp into a runoff rather than a statement that the votes as tabulated were incorrect. I can't really think of any Abrams 2018 voters who have soured on her since then off the top of my head, although I'm sure some do exist out there.

Does anyone have favorability numbers for Abrams in 2018? Might settle this debate if those took a hit (or didn't) after the election.

[GALeftist]

538's weekly polling column features the Georgia gubernatorial race this week: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/an-early-look-at-georgias-governors-race/

Interesting tidbit:

Moreover, many Georgians — not just Democrats — like Abrams. According to a spring survey by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia, 48 percent of Georgia’s registered voters had a favorable view of her, while 45 percent viewed her unfavorably. Abram’s base was concentrated among liberal and moderate voters, with 88 percent and 64 percent holding her in high regard, respectively; it’s also worth noting that 18 percent of conservative voters had a positive view of her. Kemp, meanwhile, earned higher marks among conservative voters (67 percent had a favorable view), but otherwise, he lagged behind Abrams with moderate (34 percent) and liberal voters (16 percent). Overall, just 44 percent had a favorable view of him, compared with 47 percent who had an unfavorable view.

Would seem to corroborate my anecdotal experience that Abrams remains popular among her 2018 voters despite her refusal to concede.

[GALeftist]

I might vote for Perdue in the primary now tbh lol he seems weaker

[GALeftist]

I actually voted in the Democratic primary because there were a number of downballot Democrats I wanted to support, plus I didn't want to fuel the inane tea leaves regarding comparative primary turnout. Thought long and hard about it though, and I almost went the other way.

[GALeftist]

On the subject of crossover voting:

Democratic crossover voting brings call to close Georgia’s primaries

Nooo don't throw me in the briar patch!

[GALeftist]

I have no idea whether this will move the needle but people here are really pissed about music midtown fwiw. I do think the Abrams campaign is doing a good job of handling it and it's a good reminder that Kemp isn't some harmless conservative.

[GALeftist]

This is a nothing burger.  Nobody is even talking about it here

My circle probably skews somewhat younger than yours, but music midtown has always been a big deal here. This is definitely on people's radar in my experience.