Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[lfromnj]

Kemp's JA is apparently 61/37 according to SurveyMonkey outpacing Trump's 48/51 JA. I don't know what to make of it, but it appears Stacey Abrams election trutherism has fallen on deaf ears in GA.

Simple. Those numbers are inaccurate. Anything else?

I mean it is survey monkey so the SAMPLE could be wrong but even with a weird sample its tough to get a specific sample that shows that many Kemp approves and Trump dissaprovers without it actually being true.

[lfromnj]

Might be a stupid question, but why is Chattahoochee County competitive when it's not a major urban center, has no colleges, and it was only 18.8% black as of the 2010 census? How did Obama win it in 2008 and barely lose it in 2012?

Someone else on discord and I were talking about this 2 weeks ago.
It's a military base county.

[lfromnj]

Might be a stupid question, but why is Chattahoochee County competitive when it's not a major urban center, has no colleges, and it was only 18.8% black as of the 2010 census? How did Obama win it in 2008 and barely lose it in 2012?

Someone else on discord and I were talking about this 2 weeks ago.
It's a military base county.

Turns out that's not the explanation - the explanation is even weirder: as of the 2010 census, millennials made up 59.7% of the population of the county, the highest of any county in the country.

Again military base lol- which is mostly young men.

[lfromnj]

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/lawsuit-georgia-public-service-commission-elections-harm-black-voters/Lh0cPqPzYY6ove2R0Ehz1N/

Georgia Democrats want to divide the PSC into 5 districts for VRA purposes.(this is for elections too)
Advantage for Democrats: They get a free seat rn
Cons: Its 5 districts and dividing Georgia into 5 gives you a perfect COI of Clayton+Dekalb+ Fulton which is exactly 1/5 the state and a mega D pack .

[lfromnj]

So increased hispanic vote is moving Whitfield to the left despite a hispanic swing right.
GJ Adam.

[lfromnj]

Abrams reelection campaign to continue being governor is a tossup.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1328688180497887234

LOL RIP BRIAN KEMP if Biden wins with this  relative turnout?

[lfromnj]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/527882-trump-im-ashamed-that-i-endorsed-kemp-in-georgia

If a Trump loyalist runs as a third-party in 2022, that could give Stacey Abrams a massive boost (in what theoretically would be considered a Republican year)

"Republican year"

Just like how 2012 was R+7.8 in the closest Georgia race and 2014 was R+7.7?

[lfromnj]

imo people are overrating Abram's chances in 2022. Some of the GA runoff polls had net favorables data on various politicians and Abrams net favorables in GA were not that great. Her net favorables were 47/47. For comparison, Ossoff's were 47/46, Warnock was at 48/46 in the same poll. I think she can win but right now, I'd still rate that race as tossup or maybe even Kemp with slight edge. One thing re-Abrams I am definitely confident about though is her being able to juice up the base turnout.

Said net favorables aren't including the extra 100k African Americans who will be moving into Suburban Atlanta.(ok maybe a bit less due to COVID afteraffects slowdown)

[lfromnj]

https://www.ajc.com/politics/ga-bills-would-end-no-excuse-absentee-voting-automatic-registration/OBTWL3M6MJH25MI56XGNNUODPY/

End of Automatic voter registration in Georgia?

[lfromnj]

https://thegrio.com/2021/06/09/atlantas-buckhead-fights-to-secede-from-city/

Buckhead secession movement starting up again. How legit is it?

[lfromnj]

I agree that Perdue wouldn't really be a weak candidate or anything but it would be a fitting end to the GA GOP for its 20 years of rule starting with a Perdue and ending with a Perdue.

[lfromnj]

Still going with my opinion from 7 months ago:

Honestly this race seems safe Kemp to me.

Not really safe anymore, but still think the deep south is uniquely an area where enacting staunchly conservative policies beats the Trump endorsement. I also think Perdue being a loser while Kemp a winner gives an obvious contrast in favor with Kemp.

AVR is a Staunchly conservative policy?

[lfromnj]

Yup, this is over. Moving it to Safe R.

Tossup Gwinett County.(/s)

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1504412489764777993

Abrams went from imaginary governor to imaginary president.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/fineout/status/1512451233365340161?cxt=HHwWgsC9jcWYp_0pAAAA

IMO Georgia is lean R because DeSantis's megacoattails from his 30 point win will spillover into Georgia.

[lfromnj]

The sad part about Perdue is he could actually attack Kemp for letting AVR get through which probably did cost him the election but he can't even do that.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/TeamAbrams/status/1529829006077476865

[lfromnj]

I wonder whether Geoff Duncan regrets not running for reelection? Given that even Raffensberger pulled it out and avoided a runoff, the guy could easily have won as well?

Possibly but unlike Raffesenberger and Kemp who were still relatively conservative and just got stuck in a bad situation Duncan went full Liz Cheney/Kinzinger.