Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I just saw somebody on Twitter say that, so far, turnout for the GA Republican primary in Gwinnett is down 62% from 2016.

To be fair, the GOP primary was actually competitive then. Interestingly, Rubio won metro Atlanta in 2016.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Pretty sad that my precious Whitfield County has the largest Latino electorate by percentage in this primary (5%), but of course it also has the largest Latino population percentage as well (35%).

Really? Genuinely curious...how did NW Georgia get such a large Latino population?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Blue Fayette is nice. Now can I have blue Forsyth by the end of the decade?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

After some facetious commentary elsewhere, I decided to look at the trajectory of a 7-county area that's essentially the North ATL suburbs/exurbs. This area was 942k people in 2010 (9.7% of state) and 1.06m in 2018 (10.3% of state). Georgia would have voted both for Clinton (narrow plurality) and Abrams (clear majority) without this area.

Mixed feelings here. On one hand, this has been ground zero for GOP dominance in the state for the past 20 years, so seeing it as the most compact and smallest (geographically and population-wise) area still wrecking statewide Democratic fortunes is unsurprising (and a bit gratifying, given my disdain for suburbrons and exurbrons). On the other hand, I really expected more movement here between 2016 and 2018; Trump and Kemp basically got the same share of voters, with Abrams (mathematically) absorbing nearly all of the '16 third-party voters who backed a major party candidate in '18.

This doesn't really surprise me. The GOP has to have run up votes in some populated areas to be a viable national party and the exurbs have remained in GOP hands even as the suburbs have fallen. Compare Temecula against Laguna Niguel, or Conroe against Sugarland. They aren't the same. Understandably, the parts of Georgia which are moving to Dems the hardest are the inner-ring suburbs: Marietta, Alpharetta, Duluth, Sandy Springs, and so on. There's a fundamental difference between these places and areas like Cumming, and it makes sense that they have differing political trends.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Will Abrams go for it?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

How did Alpharetta vote in 2016-2018, and how do you think it will vote in 2020?

Trump+8
Kemp+2

I think Biden should flip it.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I feel like Fayette County is going to shock the hell out of people come November 4...

I agree. Douglass, Henry, Rockdale, and Newton have all flipped in the south suburbs. Most people thought Gwinnett and Cobb were to much of a lift in 2016 and they've flipped. I definitely see Biden winning Fayette as a legitimate possibility.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Obama is coming to Georgia on Monday. IM SHOOK.

He'll be at a public Atlanta rally. You should go.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Besides their presences in the final 48 hours of the campaign, where they are going says a lot as well. Particularly interesting to me is why Trump's team felt the need to choose Rome as opposed to, say, Gainesville or Canton.

(I saw some real internal data broken down by region at the beginning of October: let's just say that Rome/NW GA would make a better defensive choice for Trump if that data was accurate; it showed Trump sliding much more in NW GA than NE GA.)

That's interesting and frankly surprising. Isn't NE GA (Hall, Forsyth, Cherokee, etc.) more connected to Atlanta and thus more liberal? Do you see anything on the ground in NW GA to indicate Trump slipping?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Attorney General:  Lucy McBath

That's a very weird office to have McBath running for.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1382282869830205443?s=21

Oh hell yeah!
This is gonna be great.

GA Dems really are throwing all the A-listers at the row offices--Nguyen, Jordan, etc.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1382282869830205443?s=21

Oh hell yeah!
This is gonna be great.

GA Dems really are throwing all the A-listers at the row offices--Nguyen, Jordan, etc.

What's Nguyen running for?

Nothing official yet, but probably SOS.