Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Bacon King]

regarding our prospects in the General Assembly, here's a random bit of analysis I messaged Adam immediately after the 2018 election: the number of seats we'd win with a three, five, and eight point uniform swing.



I know it's all relative but "we'll have a majority if we win every seat where we got at least 42%" was (and honestly still is) amazingly close because I remember a time where the GA Dems weren't even able to run candidates in a majority of seats.

It won't exactly be easy to win the Assembly in 2020 but it' will be both reasonable and good to actually invest in and actually coordinate legislative races statewide for a change -- and honestly this is the one and only chance we have left to not suffer under a GOP gerrymander for another decade so I'm all in

[Bacon King]

US House Popular Vote

Republicans 2,456,792 (52.5%)
Democrats 2,220,645 (47.5%)

GA State Senate Popular Vote

Republicans 2,388,617 (54.1%)
Democrats 2,029,246 (45.9%)

I'll do House in the morning



for future reference this does not include the outstanding absentee ballots yet to report that will probably push Biden over the edge. current prez vote is:

2,429,783 Trump (49.6%)
2,406,774 Biden (49.2%)
60,265 Jorgensen (1.2%)

[Bacon King]

GA State House Popular Vote

Republicans 2,357,154 (51.73%)
Democrats 2,189,289 (48.25%)
independent 1,129 (0.02%)

note: there were 141 Democratic candidates, 125 GOP candidates, and one independent candidate


for future reference the count is almost but not quite entirely complete. current prez vote:

2,456,845 Biden (49.34%)
2,452,845 Trump (49.42%)
61,672 Jorgensen (1.24%)

[Bacon King]

so this poll is certainly something

https://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Georgia-Senate-Runoff-Executive-Summary.pdf (pdf)

50 Ossoff to 43 Perdue
(becomes 53 Ossoff to 45 Perdue when undecideds are pushed)

53 Warnock to 44 Loeffler
(becomes 54 Warnock to 45 Loeffler when undecideds are pushed)

Brian Kemp
29 approve
57 disapprove

Brad Raffensperger
47 approve
35 disapprove

not sure if I believe it but JMC is really putting his reputation on the line here

most interesting thing in the crosstabs is the white vote