Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Back to county redistricting: the majority-Dem Cobb County Commission will try to amend the commission district map passed by the General Assembly. The Commission cites the home rule provisions in the state constitution, allowing counties and municipalities to amend legislation pertaining to their specific jurisdiction (a "local bill").

Typically, redistricting for county and city governing bodies (commissions, school boards, etc.) is treated as local legislation and passed in coordination between local officials and the county's General Assembly delegation. However, for the most recent session the General Assembly opted to draw their own maps in a few (largely Dem-leaning) counties like Cobb and Gwinnett.

Under the new maps (and assuming Cobb is not successful in this maneuver) is that Cobb's Dem majority will be left untouched (3-2), but one Dem commissioner (Jerica Richardson) will be drawn out of her seat and another GOP district will be shored up. In Gwinnett, the Dem monopoly (5-0) will give way to a 4-1 majority for at least one or two terms, as one district was redrawn to be more Republican.

If Cobb is successful, the Commission will just pass the map originally proposed by the Dem-controlled General Assembly delegation, which was mostly a least-change map. I don't know if Gwinnett will try something similar, but given the time left before the midterm election, I don't think they will.

I believe the new maps (however they turn out) don't take effect until after this election.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1579531367934672896

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution home page (https://www.ajc.com/) currently has a voter registration deadline countdown clock in the corner of the page (tomorrow is the deadline for this year's election).  Nice reminder.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Early in-person voting begins today.  The AJC has an early vote tracker up at https://www.ajc.com/politics/early-voting/.

EDIT: Be sure to scroll all the way down the page for demographic breakdowns.

[Adam Griffin]

Early in-person voting begins today.  The AJC has an early vote tracker up at https://www.ajc.com/politics/early-voting/.

Also, don't forget georgiavotes.com! First batch of early in-person (for today) should show up sometime after 9 PM ET this evening.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Early in-person voting begins today.  The AJC has an early vote tracker up at https://www.ajc.com/politics/early-voting/.

Also, don't forget georgiavotes.com! First batch of early in-person (for today) should show up sometime after 9 PM ET this evening.

Thanks!  Are you going to provide periodic updates again this year of how things look compared to prior years?  (I hope so...)

[Adam Griffin]

Early in-person voting begins today.  The AJC has an early vote tracker up at https://www.ajc.com/politics/early-voting/.

Also, don't forget georgiavotes.com! First batch of early in-person (for today) should show up sometime after 9 PM ET this evening.

Thanks!  Are you going to provide periodic updates again this year of how things look compared to prior years?  (I hope so...)

I'll do my best (probably won't be daily, though).

Nevertheless, using GAVotes before it gets polluted by in-person voting updates tonight, here are the request breakdowns for mail (216,331 applications):

52.6% White
33.0% Black
9.5% Other/Unknown
3.2% Asian
1.7% Hispanic

58.8% Female
40.5% Male
0.7% Other/Unknown

63.0% 65+
16.8% 50-64
7.8% 18-29
6.1% 30-39
5.9% 40-49
0.5% Unknown

58.0% Voted Early in 2018
16.0% Voted on ED in 2018
27.2% DNV in 2018
(Does Not Add Up to 100)

Screenshot data:

[Aurelius]

Early in-person voting begins today.  The AJC has an early vote tracker up at https://www.ajc.com/politics/early-voting/.

Also, don't forget georgiavotes.com! First batch of early in-person (for today) should show up sometime after 9 PM ET this evening.

Thanks!  Are you going to provide periodic updates again this year of how things look compared to prior years?  (I hope so...)

I'll do my best (probably won't be daily, though).

Nevertheless, using GAVotes before it gets polluted by in-person voting updates tonight, here are the request breakdowns for mail (216,331 applications):

52.6% White
33.0% Black
9.5% Other/Unknown
3.2% Asian
1.7% Hispanic

58.8% Female
40.5% Male
0.7% Other/Unknown

63.0% 65+
16.8% 50-64
7.8% 18-29
6.1% 30-39
5.9% 40-49
0.5% Unknown

58.0% Voted Early in 2018
16.0% Voted on ED in 2018
27.2% DNV in 2018
(Does Not Add Up to 100)

Screenshot data:

For those of us who aren't well versed in Georgia tea-leaves-reading, is this good/bad for anyone?

[Adam Griffin]

For those of us who aren't well versed in Georgia tea-leaves-reading, is this good/bad for anyone?

At first glance, it doesn't seem particularly good/bad for either side in the aggregate. It's hard for me to reference my previous analyses in such detail, because I usually tracked returned ballots during the period prior to early in-person voting rather than applications. Previously, counties would start mailing out ballots in late-August/early-September, but GAGOP restricted this post-2020 to no earlier than October 10 this year, so there's fewer than 3,000 returned ballots as of now.

One thing is clear: there's not going to be anywhere close to the number of mail votes as there was in 2020. In fact, it's very close to the 2018 figure in terms of applications at this point. I assumed it would surpass 10% of all votes at minimum, but we're on track for something like the 6% we saw in 2018.

At any rate, given only around 5% of likely votes cast have been documented thus far - overwhelmingly so merely in mail ballot requests rather than returns - waiting for in-person votes to begin pouring in at 100k+ votes per day on average during the early in-person period is needed.

[SCNCmod]

Here is the link to watch the Governor's Debate that was earlier tonight...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNtlU7Rkp7w

[Calthrina950]

Here is the link to watch the Governor's Debate that was earlier tonight...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNtlU7Rkp7w

From what I've seen and read of the debate, it appears that Kemp won. Abrams is sinking fast, and she is going to lose by more than in 2018, which is what she deserves.

[Aurelius]

Stop 👏 inviting 👏 Libertarians 👏 to 👏 debates

[Rookie Yinzer]

Here is the link to watch the Governor's Debate that was earlier tonight...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNtlU7Rkp7w

From what I've seen and read of the debate, it appears that Kemp won. Abrams is sinking fast, and she is going to lose by more than in 2018, which is what she deserves.

Here y’all go. LOL.

“The candidate I don’t like and disagree with on most, if not all issues lost the debate”

[Calthrina950]

Here is the link to watch the Governor's Debate that was earlier tonight...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNtlU7Rkp7w

From what I've seen and read of the debate, it appears that Kemp won. Abrams is sinking fast, and she is going to lose by more than in 2018, which is what she deserves.

Here y’all go. LOL.

“The candidate I don’t like and disagree with on most, if not all issues lost the debate”

I'm not just basing my opinion on that. As I've said before, Abrams is clearly the underdog at this point.

[Adam Griffin]

Day 1 AIP Voting: 127,685 voters cast ballots in-person today, and an additional 1,627 mail ballots were returned, for a grand total of 129,312 votes.

Breakdown of today's voters:

Code:

63920 	White	49.43%
49735 	Black	38.46%
1844	        Latino	1.43%
1792	        Asian	1.38%
12021	Other	9.30%

68030	Female	52.61%
60583	Male	        46.85%
699	        Other	0.54%

91067	Early Voters in 2018	70.40%
17838	ED Voters in 2018	13.79%
20450	Did Not Vote in 2018	15.81%

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think Abrams did slightly better than Kemp overall in the debate. She comes across as smart and gets a lot of points across. A little obnoxious though. Kemp was okay but seemed a bit stiff.

The worst, however, was the libertarian. Shane Hazel was just annoying as , and seemed like he didn't have any positions besides exactly what the libertarian party says. And seemed like an extreme hack.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There could be split voting in AZ, GA, FL, IA and OH anyways Abrams and Hobbs can win but they won't win by margins of Warnock and Kelly

[Aurelius]

I think Abrams did slightly better than Kemp overall in the debate. She comes across as smart and gets a lot of points across. A little obnoxious though. Kemp was okay but seemed a bit stiff.

The worst, however, was the libertarian. Shane Hazel was just annoying as , and seemed like he didn't have any positions besides exactly what the libertarian party says. And seemed like an extreme hack.

Never forget.

[Ferguson97]

I think Abrams did slightly better than Kemp overall in the debate. She comes across as smart and gets a lot of points across. A little obnoxious though. Kemp was okay but seemed a bit stiff.

The worst, however, was the libertarian. Shane Hazel was just annoying as , and seemed like he didn't have any positions besides exactly what the libertarian party says. And seemed like an extreme hack.

Never forget.

I still can't believe this isn't a sketch. The comedic timing is incredible.

[Aurelius]

I think Abrams did slightly better than Kemp overall in the debate. She comes across as smart and gets a lot of points across. A little obnoxious though. Kemp was okay but seemed a bit stiff.

The worst, however, was the libertarian. Shane Hazel was just annoying as , and seemed like he didn't have any positions besides exactly what the libertarian party says. And seemed like an extreme hack.

Never forget.

I still can't believe this isn't a sketch. The comedic timing is incredible.

To be fair, the best parts of the driver's license dialogue were clipped and stitched together. But it's still great.

[SCNCmod]

Here is the link to watch the Governor's Debate that was earlier tonight...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNtlU7Rkp7w

From what I've seen and read of the debate, it appears that Kemp won. Abrams is sinking fast, and she is going to lose by more than in 2018, which is what she deserves.

I'm not sure what debate those ppl were watching?  Any reviews on debates- typically come from ppl who are online to support one of the candidates.

I think Kemp will most likely win the election- but I think he gained the least of the 3 candidates in the debate.  Kemp in general is not a strong debater- and he comes across as not as sharp (regardless if this is true or not).

The 3rd party candidate benefited b/c everything he was saying, was right up the alley of many of the Trump type voters (regarding sort of anti-vax tones & government should not tell ppl what to do... even in a pandemic, etc).  So he likely picked up some of the Trump voters- who already were not crazy about Kemp.  (so this is also naturally a loss for Kemp).

Abrams came across more personable- and had a genuine smile or two  (sometimes her sort of non blink gaze- comes off a little cold).  She also did not come across as someone who is incapable of working with other viewpoints (which has occasionally been the case in the past). And its always clear that Abrams is the biggest policy wonk in the room.

Overall all, Kemp's demeanor does not show up well on stage with the more energetic and passionate Hazel & Abrams.  Kemp was also on his keels more than I expected... thanks in large part to Hazel also hitting him hard from the Libertarian Right (from the sort of the Don't Tread on Me politics).  And I think Abrams was successful at remedying her 2018 Election night speech (which was a disaster- and out of character imo).

Abrams best hope- is probably, that Hazel takes enough of the the Trump voters- to deny Kemp getting 50%... and then she gets incredible turnout in the runoff (and Warnock wins outright... so there is less attention placed on the Governor's runoff).

[SCNCmod]

https://twitter.com/BigUpsideStocks/status/1582514911275384833

A lighter few seconds of the debate (between Abrams & Hazel).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Shane Hazel has done more for Democratic Senate prospects two years ago than the DSCC.

[Adam Griffin]

Day 2 AIP (+ABM) Voting: 156,078 voters cast ballots today, for a grand total of 291,740 votes.

Breakdown of today's voters:

Code:

89587 	White	55.15%
54746 	Black	33.70%
2072	        Latino	1.28%
1752	        Asian	1.08%
14271	Other	8.79%

85751	Female	52.79%
75708	Male	        46.61%
699	        Other	0.60%

[Adam Griffin]

Looking over the voting groups by age and method of 2018 voting (or lack thereof), this isn't such a rosy picture for Democrats as it might first appear.

Code: (All 2022 Votes Thus Far)

Voted Early in 2018
86.7%	50+
11.6%	30-49
1.7%	18-29

Voted ED in 2018
77.7%	50+
19.3%	30-49
3.0%	18-29

Did Not Vote in 2018
62.2%	50+
23.7%	30-49
15.0%	18-29

This definitely thus far is an old person's game: not sure how it looked in 2018 (or 2020), but seeing over 60% of the DNV-2018ers being 50+ seems...bad for Democrats - though it's still very early.


Looking by race, strong black numbers are definitely being inflated by older 2018 early voters showing up en masse early in the voting period (there was a similar pattern in 2018, but the black share was not this strong after the second day of EV then; it went from 34% black on early in-person voting Day 1 to 30% by the end of early voting). Between yesterday and today alone, the figure dropped from 38.5% (excl. unknowns) to 35.8%.

It's not that these numbers don't look good for Democrats currently, but the distribution by voting method/lack thereof from 2018 suggests the black figure will continue to collapse day-by-day due to earlier cannibalization of EV until it finds whatever equilibrium will be the case. We'll have a better idea by the weekend in all likelihood of where this will fall. No need to draw absolute conclusions yet, but I still found this interesting:

Code: (All 2022 Votes Thus Far)

Voted Early in 2018*
57.2%	White
40.9%	Black
1.9%	Other/Unknown

Voted ED in 2018*
62.2%	White
35.5%	Black
2.3%	Other

Did Not Vote in 2018*
58.3%	White
37.7%	Black
4.0%	Other

*Uses my personal formula for reassigning excess "unknown/other" voters into appropriate black/white categories; necessary due to initial lack of classification of newer GA RVs into respective racial/ethnic categories