Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Has Abrams finally realized one of the weakest links in her electoral chain from 2018, and is trying to address it? Hopefully so!

Stacey Abrams: ‘If Black men vote for me, I’ll win Georgia.’

An Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll last month showed Abrams underperforming with Black voters, with about 80% of the vote, and significantly trailing Gov. Brian Kemp among male voters, 57% to 33%.

...

Abrams’ performance among Black men, in particular, is one reason she’s lagging behind Kemp in public and internal surveys. That’s a metric she and her campaign are working to change in the months ahead.

Been talking about this for years: in the months following the 2018 election, her campaign tried to act as if she achieved some unprecedented level of support % among black voters across the board (patently false with some simple precinct analysis); the reality was that she did worse with black men than any prominent statewide candidate in modern Georgia history (worse than Jason Carter & worse than Hillary Clinton). Keep in mind that historically, black women make up 60%+ of black voters in Georgia, so perhaps they just ignored this dynamic prior. If she had held Carter's share of the vote among black men, she possibly would be running for re-election right now (via a runoff win, but still).

I don't know how much there is to be said about negative stereotypes and the supposed notion that black men don't want to "take orders" from black women, but it was peculiar how in a Democratic surge election, black men were one of only like 2 major groups (along with rurals) that swung R. She definitely lost immense ground with black rural men in 2018 (if not for the above reason, then my next suspicion would be her past positions on guns; not every black person lives in urban GA, after all).

I do know in my heart of hearts that, overall, if Abrams-18 had just taken the position of every other recent gubernatorial nominee in GA on guns and confederate monuments (i.e. "duck and dodge"), she'd be the current Governor of Georgia. She set a wildfire across (particularly white) rural GA and it absolutely cost her in the end.

Looking at precinct results, Abrams def did slightly better than Clinton with black voters in greater Atlanta overall as well as smaller cities. Rural GA is a bit tricky to tell because most rural precincts with large black populations are depopulating and becoming whiter, plus Kemp universally improved in rural areas over Trump throughout GA (whereas Abrams had a pretty universal overperformance in the metros).

I think in hindsight given Biden's victory and the Senate races, Abram's performance in 2018 really doesn't seem all that impressive, but her performance amongst black voters was genuinely impressive.

To me, it seems like Abrams problem in 2018 was universally underperforming Biden in white communities throughout the state, especially many Atlanta suburbs.

Any honestly, Democrats expecting to win black voters by like 90% seems like a really tough strategy with minimal reward long term. Yes, every vote counts, but that sort of political lop-sideness just seems unsustainable, espeically as younger generations of black voters tend to be slightly less Dem already.

[Adam Griffin]

Looking at precinct results, Abrams def did slightly better than Clinton with black female voters in greater Atlanta overall as well as smaller cities.

Again, given that they are 60% or more of the black vote in most places in GA, her improvement there helped offset the toplines to a degree. Even comparing at the county level, let alone the precinct level (both of which in GA publish turnout and registration figures by every race/gender combo), there was a clear correlation to places where Abrams made up less ground/lost ground & where black men were closer to 50-55% of the black electorate, as opposed to 60-65%.

I'd also say that comparing to Biden/Warnock/Ossoff might not be the right measurement for that time and place: comparing to Clinton was the better choice then. End result: all of the kudos Abrams got for turning out voters really was rooted in the fact that AVR went into effect immediately following 2016, with an average of 350k new voters per year being added to the rolls each year consistently up until the 2020 election. Abrams enjoyed better figures turnout-wise largely because the voting pool got dramatically expanded and when people get registered, they tend to vote at levels closer to that of the previously-registered. I've actually broke down the statistics on AVR/turnout/etc in Georgia previously if you're interested - I'd just need to find the past posts with the figures in them. Long and short: Abrams saw surges in most voter groups because AVR picked up lower-propensity voters who were more likely to back Ds in the first place, which ultimately carried over (and doubled in size) for Biden, Ossoff and Warnock.

Biden definitely ended up doing even worse with black men than Abrams, so perhaps some is an irreversible trend now that we have another set of elections with the same patterns occurring - but I do know if Abrams only tries to run up the score with black women, she won't garner the numbers necessary in this type of election to cross the finish line.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking at precinct results, Abrams def did slightly better than Clinton with black female voters in greater Atlanta overall as well as smaller cities.

Again, given that they are 60% or more of the black vote in most places in GA, her improvement there helped offset the toplines to a degree. Even comparing at the county level, let alone the precinct level (both of which in GA publish turnout and registration figures by every race/gender combo), there was a clear correlation to places where Abrams made up less ground/lost ground & where black men were closer to 50-55% of the black electorate, as opposed to 60-65%.

I'd also say that comparing to Biden/Warnock/Ossoff might not be the right measurement for that time and place: comparing to Clinton was the better choice then. End result: all of the kudos Abrams got for turning out voters really was rooted in the fact that AVR went into effect immediately following 2016, with an average of 350k new voters per year being added to the rolls each year consistently up until the 2020 election. Abrams enjoyed better figures turnout-wise largely because the voting pool got dramatically expanded and when people get registered, they tend to vote at levels closer to that of the previously-registered. I've actually broke down the statistics on AVR/turnout/etc in Georgia previously if you're interested - I'd just need to find the past posts with the figures in them. Long and short: Abrams saw surges in most voter groups because AVR picked up lower-propensity voters who were more likely to back Ds in the first place, which ultimately carried over (and doubled in size) for Biden, Ossoff and Warnock.

Biden definitely ended up doing even worse with black men than Abrams, so perhaps some is an irreversible trend now that we have another set of elections with the same patterns occurring - but I do know if Abrams only tries to run up the score with black women, she won't garner the numbers necessary in this type of election to cross the finish line.

Yeah, fair enough, it can just be difficult to tell the gender divide cause gender tends to be pretty evenly distributed across communities though I trust your analysis on this.

Abrams def helped to accelerate shifts in the state for Dems and her 2018 Gov race was sorta a midpoint between 2018 and 2020. I have no doubt without her Biden prolly would've narrowly lost the state and Perdue may have outright won.

Obviously, I don't think Democrats should ignore any voters and I think much of their messaging has been offputting to many men, especially men who believe in more traditional gender roles. If they can't appeal to men that's a problem cause men are a huge chunk of the electorate anywhere. However, to believe that getting like 90% of the black male vote is realistic long term is probably setting one up for disappointment, especially as younger generations of black folks don't hold the same identity many of their parents held. What matters more with the black vote imo is turnout overall since higher black turnout always means a stronger dem performance statewide reguardless if you're winning the black vote 85-12 or 90-8

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just saw an anti-Kemp ad during the Braves game hitting him for his anti-abortion stance.  Powerful ad; I don't see it up on YouTube yet.

[skbl17]

Quick note: The two Public Service Commission elections scheduled this year have been cancelled.

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1560770567854333954

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Quick note: The two Public Service Commission elections scheduled this year have been cancelled.

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1560770567854333954

Can… can he just do that?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quick note: The two Public Service Commission elections scheduled this year have been cancelled.

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1560770567854333954

Can… can he just do that?

This is NOT a case of Raffensperger arbitrarily canceling an election.  It's a long story (see this AJC article for the whole background) but it boils down to this:

1. There are five PSC district positions, but all of them are voted on statewide.

2. This setup was challenged in federal court on the grounds that it dilutes Black voting power.  (This is demonstrably true; only one Black candidate has been elected in the PSC's 143-year history.)

3. The court agreed and ordered the state to change the system, which would have resulted in postponing this year's two district elections.

4. The state appealed, and the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals stayed the lower court ruling, allowing the election to go forward in November under the old systems.

5. The plaintiffs appealed to SCOTUS, who reversed the Circuit Court (while leaving the door open for additional challenges), again postponing the two elections.

6. The state could have asked SCOTUS for an emergency stay to let the elections go forward in November anyway.  Raffensperger chose not to because time is short; ballots start being printed next week.  That is what the tweet is talking about.

Bottom line: this is a good decision for democracy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mluckovichajc/status/1560692963839180803

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/Claire_FOX5/status/1562203174169198592

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

RIP

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

God bless

[Buzz]

So the music midtown incident has completely blown over as expected.  A non issue

[LostFellow]

So the music midtown incident has completely blown over as expected.  A non issue

What is your evidence for this..?

[Rookie Yinzer]

So the music midtown incident has completely blown over as expected.  A non issue

What is your evidence for this..?

Right. The event is not happening. What is raging about it going to do about it? It doesn’t mean people that will lose income/opportunities over this won’t be thinking about that in October/November.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/AmoneyResists/status/1565134290366730242

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/AmoneyResists/status/1565134290366730242

Kemp is such a clown.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1562907069979639810?cxt=HHwWhICqseLsx7Ar...

This is the worst ad ever! /s

[GeorgiaModerate]

All Georgia election aficionados should read this AJC article about voter registration changes in the state over the past four years.  Here's the summary:

Georgia has changed ahead of this year’s elections:

Over 1.6 million new voters over the past four years, representing more than one-fifth of all registered voters. A growing and more diverse electorate. A swing state with close and high-stakes elections.

Many of the new voters come from groups that typically support Democrats, including people of color, those under age 35 and people from other states who moved to urban and suburban areas in Georgia, according to an analysis of the state’s registration list by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/in-battleground-georgia-new-voters-on-the-rise-before-22-election/W2VMBFGVXJCNVM3MIIKTMN4OYI/

[Хahar 🤔]

https://twitter.com/AmoneyResists/status/1565134290366730242

This clip is from 2018.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AmoneyResists/status/1565134290366730242

This clip is from 2018.

correct, but it's currently going viral.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting interview with AJC political cartoonist Mike Luckovich: https://www.ajc.com/things-to-do/ajc-cartoonist-mike-luckovich-on-his-new-book-and-his-process/H2FMRHHWA5AOBNKQSN3KTMCLLE/

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/jchaltiwanger/status/1567604270803075072



RCP already has him at 49%, I think he clearly wins without a runoff only question is does he get enough to take Walker with him?

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/jchaltiwanger/status/1567604270803075072



RCP already has him at 49%, I think he clearly wins without a runoff only question is does he get enough to take Walker with him?

We'll see as the election gets closer if he's still polling at sub 50% levels. Generally a candidate doesn't do much worse than their average in the polls, but at this point it's basically impossible to see Abrams winning outright. A good example of what could happen with polls would be Perdue v Ossoff where Perdue's share was pretty consistent throughout, but Ossoff really shot up a lot in the last month and he ultimately forced a runoff and is now Senator. I think lean Kemp feels fair.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It shouldn't be surprising that Abrams is running behind Warnock.  She's running against a much more formidable opponent.

[omar04]

Georgia’s shifting politics force GOP to look beyond Atlanta

https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-mountains-georgia-atlanta-newt-gingrich-8ce56c6671c2991c222e024577e3656f