Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Coolface’s actual roommate]

Stacey will lose again

[skbl17]

fwiw I don't think the income tax will actually be eliminated, even if you have a Gov. (David) Perdue. Unless he's willing to go to war with the General Assembly over eliminating the income tax (he won't), it'll be quietly dropped as an idea in favor of more piecemeal cuts to the income tax. Considering the arm-twisting that was necessary back in 2015 to get the legislature to support a modest increase to the fuel tax just to support basic upkeep on our highway system, I think the bevy of budget cuts and tax/fee increases that would be necessary to support such a move would be nonstarters under the Gold Dome.

The fact that the House Appropriations Committee chair is opining about this should be a signal.

England said the state’s current mix of revenue – which mostly comes from the 5.75% income tax and 4% sales tax – has kept finances stable and allowed Georgia to annually balance its budget. Georgia has maintained a AAA bond rating for decades – meaning it can borrow money at the lowest interest rates - and bond-rating agencies often cite the revenue mix as one of the reasons why.

I don't think there will be an appetite for anything other than a continuation of piecemeal tax cuts, which has been SOP for the General Assembly for years.

Kemp (or Abrams, should Kemp be defeated in the primary) could use the proposal to paint his primary opponents as fiscally reckless, especially considering their lack of concrete plans on how they'd fill a $14+ billion hole as a result of eliminating the income tax. Not sure if that would have much sway with increasingly radicalized GOP primary voters, though - they probably don't care, and for all I know if they did they'd paint Kemp as a tax-and-spend liberal if he tried to criticize any income tax elimination proposal.

Besides, it's not like Georgia is a high-tax state to begin with. We have a low (very low by some metrics) tax burden per capita. As a Georgia taxpayer, I think this kind of proposal is a solution in search of a problem. From my perspective, there's no need to convert the state's revenue base to a more unstable regime based more heavily on sales taxes.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1468730939182354434

[Inmate Trump]

Some Trumper coworkers were discussing this today.

Basically they're very mad Trump has endorsed Perdue.  They want Trump to back Jones.  They're still supporting Jones.  They're worried Perdue will split the anti-Kemp vote and cause Kemp to come out on top by default.  They said Perdue has already lost statewide once and they don't want to go with him.

[Coolface’s actual roommate]

Some Trumper coworkers were discussing this today.

Basically they're very mad Trump has endorsed Perdue.  They want Trump to back Jones.  They're still supporting Jones.  They're worried Perdue will split the anti-Kemp vote and cause Kemp to come out on top by default.

Don’t they know that Georgia has runoffs?

[Inmate Trump]

Some Trumper coworkers were discussing this today.

Basically they're very mad Trump has endorsed Perdue.  They want Trump to back Jones.  They're still supporting Jones.  They're worried Perdue will split the anti-Kemp vote and cause Kemp to come out on top by default.

Don’t they know that Georgia has runoffs?

Who knows?  I didn't engage with them, and generally keep my mouth shut when politics comes up at the workplace.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some Trumper coworkers were discussing this today.

Basically they're very mad Trump has endorsed Perdue.  They want Trump to back Jones.  They're still supporting Jones.  They're worried Perdue will split the anti-Kemp vote and cause Kemp to come out on top by default.

Don’t they know that Georgia has runoffs?

The number of Georgia voters who don't know about the runoff rule is surprisingly high.  I encountered a bunch who were surprised that the Senate races weren't over in November.

[skbl17]

Yeah, a fair number of voters here assume we use plurality voting for everything, when in reality it's only used for presidential races.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1468898224706625537?s=21

[Coolface’s actual roommate]

Will Abrams win Glasscock county and the counties in the Northwest corner in the primary?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Will Abrams win Glasscock county and the counties in the Northwest corner in the primary?

Does she have any primary opponents?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will Abrams win Glasscock county and the counties in the Northwest corner in the primary?

Does she have any primary opponents?

Not so far, and it's unlikely that there will be any.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Will Abrams win Glasscock county and the counties in the Northwest corner in the primary?

Yes, because no one is going to run against her.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Will Abrams win Glasscock county and the counties in the Northwest corner in the primary?

Does she have any primary opponents?

Not so far, and it's unlikely that there will be any.

Maybe they’ll be some random low key misogynist who gets maybe 5%

[Barack Oganja]

Trump endorsing early means its effect is going to be somewhat "baked in" for a May primary.  I.e., don't expect a late surge toward Perdue (like Kemp had in 2018), it's going to be a slog to the finish.

The cleavage here is going to be the state/county GOP organization (Kemp) vs Trump surrogates and aligned national media (Perdue.)  I'll rate the primary as toss-up/Tilt Kemp to start. 

What do you think Trump is going to do if Kemp indeed wins the nomination? Just sit it out, endorse him reluctantly or will he at least somehow call upon his supporters to vote for Abrams? Latter would be extremely hilarious and instantly move it to Lean Democratic.

I still believe Kemp will go down and the general election is at least Tilt Republican.

Trump probably tucks his tail and goes home to lick his wounds, and there's enough of an anti-Biden vote in November for either Perdue or Kemp to win. 

Trump has never, and will never go out quietly. If Kemp wins he probably says it's based on voter fraud and dampens GOP turnout, Senate runoffs 2.0

[PSOL]

They’re purging political opponents from being election workers

Republicans are going to steal this election again.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538's weekly polling column features the Georgia gubernatorial race this week: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/an-early-look-at-georgias-governors-race/

Interesting tidbit:

Moreover, many Georgians — not just Democrats — like Abrams. According to a spring survey by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia, 48 percent of Georgia’s registered voters had a favorable view of her, while 45 percent viewed her unfavorably. Abram’s base was concentrated among liberal and moderate voters, with 88 percent and 64 percent holding her in high regard, respectively; it’s also worth noting that 18 percent of conservative voters had a positive view of her. Kemp, meanwhile, earned higher marks among conservative voters (67 percent had a favorable view), but otherwise, he lagged behind Abrams with moderate (34 percent) and liberal voters (16 percent). Overall, just 44 percent had a favorable view of him, compared with 47 percent who had an unfavorable view.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Perdue is going full 2020 election conspiracy theorist.  Possibly a good strategy in the primary, but not in the general election.

David Perdue files election lawsuit with recycled, already-disproven claims of fraud

[GALeftist]

538's weekly polling column features the Georgia gubernatorial race this week: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/an-early-look-at-georgias-governors-race/

Interesting tidbit:

Moreover, many Georgians — not just Democrats — like Abrams. According to a spring survey by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution/University of Georgia, 48 percent of Georgia’s registered voters had a favorable view of her, while 45 percent viewed her unfavorably. Abram’s base was concentrated among liberal and moderate voters, with 88 percent and 64 percent holding her in high regard, respectively; it’s also worth noting that 18 percent of conservative voters had a positive view of her. Kemp, meanwhile, earned higher marks among conservative voters (67 percent had a favorable view), but otherwise, he lagged behind Abrams with moderate (34 percent) and liberal voters (16 percent). Overall, just 44 percent had a favorable view of him, compared with 47 percent who had an unfavorable view.

Would seem to corroborate my anecdotal experience that Abrams remains popular among her 2018 voters despite her refusal to concede.

[Pericles]

Perdue is going full 2020 election conspiracy theorist.  Possibly a good strategy in the primary, but not in the general election.

David Perdue files election lawsuit with recycled, already-disproven claims of fraud

What a disgusting, sore loser, and this is probably just pure political opportunism which makes it even worse. Kemp definitely deserves the win more, but hopefully they take each other out and give Abrams the win.

[Del Tachi]

My hunch is that the primary campaign will not end up being very kind to Perdue.

I'll bake in my first "way too early" prediction for the GOP primary as a 59-37 win for Kemp.

[Inmate Trump]

My hunch is that the primary campaign will not end up being very kind to Perdue.

I'll bake in my first "way too early" prediction for the GOP primary as a 59-37 win for Kemp.

You think Kemp will win it outright, or in a runoff?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Source: https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/review?uri=urn:aaid:scds:US:e9caaf39-ce23-4cee-b00c-82948e388566

We found that incumbent Governor Brian Kemp has overstayed his welcome with the Republican electorate and a plurality back another candidate, chiefly David Perdue. Furthermore, President Trump’s endorsement of Sen. Perdue serves to further solidify his advantage over Brian Kemp.

In the head-to-head ballot, Perdue’s lead shoots up from +3 to +22 over Brian Kemp. All of the growth in Perdue’s share of the vote came amongst those who say they are “definitely” voting for him. A slight plurality of voters were already backing Perdue, but once all the RPV heard about Trump’s endorsement, that lead improved significantly.

Intial:
Perdue 47% - Kemp 44%

When informed of President Trump's endorsement:
Perdue 56% - Kemp 34%

[Adam Griffin]

A great victory against pilferers and scoundrels!

Georgia court rejects property owners’ right to boot unauthorized cars

The age-old practice used by property owners to boot unauthorized vehicles on their premises was dealt a serious blow Tuesday by the state’s highest court.

In a unanimous opinion, the Georgia Supreme Court flatly rejected a shopping mall’s assertion that a law established centuries ago allowed it to immobilize cars and trucks until their owners pay a fine to have the boot removed.

The ruling is a victory for Forrest Allen, whose tractor-trailer was booted after he parked it in a DeKalb County shopping center in February 2018. After paying a $650 fee to have the boot removed, he filed suit against Wesley Chapel Crossing and several of the mall’s tenants.

“Booting as it’s currently practiced is predatory and leads to violence between private citizens in dark parking lots,” Wetherington said. “This decision makes Georgia a safer place.”

A number of municipalities, such as Atlanta, Decatur and Union City, have passed local ordinances that allow unauthorized vehicles to be booted, Wetherington noted. But there are some property owners who are booting cars in areas with no such laws and who are requiring motorists to pay up to $2,600 to have a boot removed, he said.

Note that because of the "home rule" provisions in the Georgia Constitution, municipalities can still pass these laws - but this case was in a place that did not have such rules, and will apply to all unincorporated areas in the state (as well as any municipalities that do not have these rules on the books, which is basically everywhere save for Atlanta proper and a handful of nearby municipalities).

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1470912072192073728