Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Perdue's in: https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/breaking-david-perdue-plans-to-run-for-governor-in-2022/WRIWO2GV3ZG5ZCC6VO7B2XCI4M/

This should be a fun primary to watch.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Perdue's in: https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/breaking-david-perdue-plans-to-run-for-governor-in-2022/WRIWO2GV3ZG5ZCC6VO7B2XCI4M/

This should be a fun primary to watch.

Yep, even if it is just two boring old white guys going at each other.

[Del Tachi]

Kemp vs Perdue is an interesting match-up that will probably expose some local fault-lines that national commentators and Atlas-type pundits will gladly be oblivious to.  Back in his 2018 primary, Kemp was the more moderate/rural Republican over Cagle.  The Cagle and Perdue analouges are strong; the only thing that has really changed is that Trump is apparently all-in on unseating Kemp.  Perdue trying to U-turn from a country club type to unapologetic Trumpian does have the potential to come off as insincere and opportunistic, so we'll see how the GA-GOP responds.  Kemp is likely to going to have the support of most local GOP county chairs and state legislators.   

The national environment obviously matters a lot more than whatever happens in the GOP primary when it comes to the GE, and it doesn't strike me that either Kemp or Perdue would be a much stronger GE contender than the other.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In the Environment we're in now it's an R wave but 300 days til Nov, Sinema and Manchin needs to stop playing games on VR and Filibuster

[JMT]

Assuming Perdue receives Trump’s endorsement, I wonder if Vernon Jones stays in the race?

[Woody]

Good. Get that idiot out of there. Lean R with Perdue.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In a Kemp vs Perdue race, I would expect Kemp to have an edge due to incumbency and establishment support. But a Perdue victory is always still a potential outcome.

[Podgy the Bear]

Look for a major Democratic crossover vote to defeat the perceived weaker opponent to Abrams (if the Republicans go to a primary runoff).

[wbrocks67]

What do moderates/independents in GA think of Kemp though? I feel like they'd be way more sour on Perdue than Kemp. Makes me think Kemp would be stronger against Abrams than Perdue would be.

[President Johnson]

Perdue's in: https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/breaking-david-perdue-plans-to-run-for-governor-in-2022/WRIWO2GV3ZG5ZCC6VO7B2XCI4M/

This should be a fun primary to watch.

He may actually be favored, especially in a runoff.

Two challengers could actually save Kemp due to split opposition, but since Georgia has a runoff system, he's almost certainly screwed simply for simply doing a formality such as certifying an election. The Republican Party is a joke.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The fact that the state GOP couldn’t stop this is telling.

I hope Kemp wins his primary though.

[Blair]

FWIW Perdue would not be the first senator or D.C creature to be pushed into primarying a disliked state official- the issue is that they've got a record of doing quite badly!

[VBM]

Good. Get that idiot out of there. Lean R with Perdue.

What do you not like about Kemp?

[Podgy the Bear]

An indication here that by keeping Trump as a major force, the Republicans are in more trouble nationally than they think.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The Georgia*** GOP seems to be in outright civil war

[GALeftist]

You hate to see it, but more than that, you love to see it.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Perdue is clearly a stronger GE candidate than Kemp. Trumpists won't turn out for Kemp, but even establishment conservatives will turn out for Perdue.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Republican GOP seems to be in outright civil war

"Republican GOP" is rather redundant.  I assume you meant the Georgia GOP, in which case I agree.

Also, Vernon Jones is staying in.  Get the popcorn ready:

https://twitter.com/Emma_Hurt/status/1467617310496145414

And speaking of redundancies, note the last line in his statement.  "Gubernatorial candidate for Governor."   

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

The Republican GOP seems to be in outright civil war

"Republican GOP" is rather redundant.  I assume you meant the Georgia GOP, in which case I agree.

Also, Vernon Jones is staying in.  Get the popcorn ready:

https://twitter.com/Emma_Hurt/status/1467617310496145414

And speaking of redundancies, note the last line in his statement.  "Gubernatorial candidate for Governor."   

Yea you’re right, my fault for watching tv and foruming

[Canis]

I can only really see Jones getting 10-15% max with Perdue in the race no clue who his base is but theirs a good chance this goes to a runoff which will really help Abrams the winner of the eventual runoff will likely be damaged politically and low on cash.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am waiting for a Traggy poll, all the polls had Warnock and Ossoff winning by 6 by promising Stimulus checks and Traggy has it 51/49 they both UNDERPERFORMED polls abd won by 85/50K votes

The Gov race Cook has Lean R anyways abd Senate race is definitely going to a Runoff

[Agafin]

Is it possible for Abrams to get 50% outright and avoid a run-off? Or are there some green or minor dem candidates who render such a scenario near Impossible?

[Continential]

Is it possible for Abrams to get 50% outright and avoid a run-off? Or are there some green or minor dem candidates who render such a scenario near Impossible?

The Green Party in Georgia is disaffiliated from the national one and doesn't have ballot access.

[Real Texan Politics]

Is it possible for Abrams to get 50% outright and avoid a run-off? Or are there some green or minor dem candidates who render such a scenario near Impossible?

If turnout is insanely high for dems (Abrams effect) and embarrassingly low for republicans (assuming Kemp is the nominee) then it's certainly possible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Is it possible for Abrams to get 50% outright and avoid a run-off? Or are there some green or minor dem candidates who render such a scenario near Impossible?

If turnout is insanely high for dems (Abrams effect) and embarrassingly low for republicans (assuming Kemp is the nominee) then it's certainly possible.

It's not Lean D wait til we see a poll, all the polls had Ossoff and Warnock in Jan winning by six pts and Traggy had it 51/46 it's Bradley effect in these polls

Just like it was on VA

The only decent poll we had was Cali when Newsom and Biden were at 57% in September now they are low in Approvals

They won't give us a Governor poll for Nov 22/ there's no more stimulus his Approvals are way down again NEWSOM