Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Barack Oganja]

Kemp is going to be dragged even further to the right to win the primary, seems like a familiar story

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA is a weird state I do expect Kemp to win and WARNOCK to win, it's a Runoff and I expect Ryan to win and DeWine to win

[Suburbia]

Vernon Jones is a clown and he'd go nowhere in a Georgia GOP primary for obvious reasons (hint: it starts with an r, and ends in -ace), especially since North Georgia white people, who are a significant chunk of said primary electorate, are extremely racist.

Would Jones win Forsyth County, GA?

[S019]

Vernon Jones is a clown and he'd go nowhere in a Georgia GOP primary for obvious reasons (hint: it starts with an r, and ends in -ace), especially since North Georgia white people, who are a significant chunk of said primary electorate, are extremely racist.

Would Jones win Forsyth County, GA?

In the general, absolutely, in the primary, I have no idea.

[Real Texan Politics]

Vernon Jones is a clown and he'd go nowhere in a Georgia GOP primary for obvious reasons (hint: it starts with an r, and ends in -ace), especially since North Georgia white people, who are a significant chunk of said primary electorate, are extremely racist.

Would Jones win Forsyth County, GA?

In the general, absolutely, in the primary, I have no idea.

Probably depends on how alive racism still is there. I obviously know it was a sundown county in the past (not sure if it still is today). I'm sure the racists will vote for Kemp but I'm sure there are enough Trumpers in Forsyth that'll vote for Jones anyways regardless of his race.

[Roll Roons]

Vernon Jones is a clown and he'd go nowhere in a Georgia GOP primary for obvious reasons (hint: it starts with an r, and ends in -ace), especially since North Georgia white people, who are a significant chunk of said primary electorate, are extremely racist.

Would Jones win Forsyth County, GA?

In the general, absolutely, in the primary, I have no idea.

Wonder when it finally flips. Trump won it by over 30 points, but it's trending left REALLY quickly. Gotta be one of the fastest left-trending counties in the country.

[LostFellow]

Vernon Jones is a clown and he'd go nowhere in a Georgia GOP primary for obvious reasons (hint: it starts with an r, and ends in -ace), especially since North Georgia white people, who are a significant chunk of said primary electorate, are extremely racist.

Would Jones win Forsyth County, GA?

In the general, absolutely, in the primary, I have no idea.

Wonder when it finally flips. Trump won it by over 30 points, but it's trending left REALLY quickly. Gotta be one of the fastest left-trending counties in the country.

I think maybe by the early-mid 2030s Forsyth will flip, but a few contenders for the fastest left-trending counties are other suburban counties in the Atlanta metro.

If we use the metric of Presidential swing from 2012 to 2020, Forsyth does have the largest swing in the state of GA (~29.5 points, slightly more than Cobb, Gwinnett, Fayette, Rockdale). But taking 2008 to 2020 or 2004 to 2020 the southern ATL suburbs have the greatest swing by a large margin. Rockdale County swung 62.4!! points leftward from 2004 to 2020.

[Inmate Trump]

When Trump starts campaigning with Jones, it's all over for Kemp.

[skbl17]

Bert Reeves, the Republican incumbent in GA-HD-34, is resigning to take up a new position at Georgia Tech. Reeves won reelection in this Cobb County district by 12 points last November.

HD-34 was Trump+4 (or was it Trump+3?) in 2020 (down from Trump+16 in 2016,) and is sandwiched between HD-35 (Biden-won but GOP-held by less than 300 votes) and HD-37 (Biden-won, Dem-held since 2018).

For now, I think this'll be an R hold, but it will be interesting to see what the margin in the special election ends up being.

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1385262472530210817

[Adam Griffin]

This was an interesting exercise I began roughly calculating late last year, but now that DRA has 2020 data for Georgia, I'm able to conduct it more precisely.

Below is a comparison of Stacey Abrams' and Joe Biden's performances displaying the harmonized outcome and rooted in raw vote.

What does this mean? While an overly-simplistic explanation, essentially: "how would Biden and Abrams compare to one another if Abrams had faced a 2020-sized electorate while maintaining the margins by precinct/county/region that she received in 2018?".

I'll be publishing analysis for each region in the coming days, but as I've alluded to since November 2020 (or in some cases, since November 2018), obvious contributors to a Democratic win in GA should be obvious & so should the effects of historically weak performances by a certain candidate in select areas.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/beeforgeorgia/status/1389521407420375042?s=21

[Real Texan Politics]

https://twitter.com/beeforgeorgia/status/1389521407420375042?s=21

Cringe pun, but does she have a chance to win? Let alone "bee" the dem nominee?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Cringe pun, but does she have a chance to win? Let alone "bee" the dem nominee?

Yes and yes.

[VAR]

I suppose I'll post this here--AJC/UGA poll, conducted April 20-May 3, 844 RV, MoE: 3.4%.

Approvals/favorabilities
Joe Biden: 51/45 (+6)
Brian Kemp: 45/49 (-4) and 69/25 (+44) among Republicans.
Jon Ossoff: 48/40 (+8)
Raphael Warnock: 48/41 (+7)
Stacey Abrams: 48/45 (+3)
Donald Trump: 45/50 (-5)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IbJP58EcsG2W_L-A6gnb81blnIhfAFoP/view

[Devils30]

Inelastic Georgia was a problem for Dems in 2014, 16, 18 and the same dynamics that helped Dems in 2020 could help them in 2022. The numbers that used to leave Dems slightly short might leave them with 50-51.5% now.

[Real Texan Politics]

I suppose I'll post this here--AJC/UGA poll, conducted April 20-May 3, 844 RV, MoE: 3.4%.

Approvals/favorabilities
Joe Biden: 51/45 (+6)
Brian Kemp: 45/49 (-4) and 69/25 (+44) among Republicans.
Jon Ossoff: 48/40 (+8)
Raphael Warnock: 48/41 (+7)
Stacey Abrams: 48/45 (+3)
Donald Trump: 45/50 (-5)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IbJP58EcsG2W_L-A6gnb81blnIhfAFoP/view

Curious to know about Herschel Walker's approval ratings, but I doubt there's information about that?

[2016]

Kemp is a GONER, will not win Republican Primary

Remington Poll has Kemp leading Vernon Jones only by 4 Points (39-35)
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/552223-poll-shows-tight-gop-primary-for-georgia-governor
Every Republican who is against Trump need to be purged out!

[JRP1994]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1390470645255966725

[Suburbia]

Yikes....Lance Bottoms probably is exhausted with the APD/AFD drama and all the other nonsense.

She probably runs for governor if Abrams declines?

And why doesn't Stacey Evans run for Lt. Gov. or AG in '22....

[Lognog]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1390470645255966725

Is she getting a job with the Biden admin?

[FourEyedRick]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1390470645255966725

Is she getting a job with the Biden admin?

Ambassadorship maybe?

[Lognog]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1390470645255966725

Is she getting a job with the Biden admin?

Ambassadorship maybe?

Maybe going statewide?

[brucejoel99]

LMAO it's literally just for a job at Walgreens, presumably at the corporate level:

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/atlanta-mayor-keisha-lance-bottoms-will-not-seek-re-election/ADFKHCQ6V5B2LBZFNW5GHWRENU/

[Suburbia]

Kemp is a GONER, will not win Republican Primary

Remington Poll has Kemp leading Vernon Jones only by 4 Points (39-35)
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/552223-poll-shows-tight-gop-primary-for-georgia-governor
Every Republican who is against Trump need to be purged out!

You actually think that Kemp will lose a primary to a Black man who turned Republican in 2019-20?? If it is Jones vs. Abrams, I wonder who wins Forsyth?

[Oryxslayer]

LMAO it's literally just for a job at Walgreens, presumably at the corporate level:

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/atlanta-mayor-keisha-lance-bottoms-will-not-seek-re-election/ADFKHCQ6V5B2LBZFNW5GHWRENU/

Plenty of people have noted, including the NYT, that mayors of both parties are running for the doors because the pandemic made their usually thankless task even harder.