Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL. But running for state SoS from the House of Representatives is a downgrade, isn't it? State AG would be a different story, but SoS? Anyways, Raffensberger is probably toast.

[brucejoel99]

He was just endorsed by Trump

https://twitter.com/craigcaplan/status/1373997465226125320?s=21

So far, Trump has endorsed Lisa Murkowski's yet-to-be-determined "primary" challenger, Anthony Gonzales' primary challenger, & now Raffensperger's primary challenger. I wonder if he'll ever actually endorse any Republican candidates running for seats which are currently held by Democrats, or if he's just gonna continue trying to destroy the Republican Party out of pure spite? (Not that I'm complaining, of course.)

[BuckeyeNut]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1373989839872405508?s=20
Jody Hice is in for SoS. It's Lean D now

Why?   Atleast we get someone else in Congress(Unless it's the second coming of MTG).

Given this district, that seems reasonably likely.

[GALeftist]

Lukewarm take: If Hice beats Raffensperger, which he's probably favored to do, GA-SOS is farther left than GA-GOV, although both shift left substantially. I mean, this man is cuckoo for cocoa puffs, he's on record opposing separation of church and state and calling supporters of abortion worse than Hitler (winning message in Cobb).

[Left Wing]

I’m hoping Barrow runs for SOS again, he was really wronged with the Supreme Court election cancellation

[Calthrina950]

I’m hoping Barrow runs for SOS again, he was really wronged with the Supreme Court election cancellation

And if he does run and is opposed by Hice, I believe he would win this time.

[Adam Griffin]

On one hand, Barrow came closest to winning in 2018 of any Democrat (-0.42 points - though his vote share was 0.2 points lower than Abrams' - which was fueled by a combination of high 3P vote share and his name rec propping him up in the Onion Belt), but on the other, his primary performance against two no-names was pathetic (he nearly went to a primary runoff; black-sounding names will get you far in GA-DEM primaries - especially if your campaign sucks) and his overall GE and runoff campaign was minimal.

Given everybody and their mother now knows GA is winnable, I imagine there will be a variety of capable people vying for this seat and the party establishment will not being deferring to him like they did in 2018. I do believe he would win if he got the nomination, though.

[forsythvoter]

My sense is Raffensperger is still pretty popular even among most Republicans here in the N Atl suburbs (which also tend to have the highest turnout in the R primaries), so I'm not convinced Hice would take him out in a primary. I would also think the State Establishment R circles would also strongly back Raffensperger against Hice, which carries some weight given most voters probably don't know who Hice is.

That said, if Hice does win, barring the Ds nominating someone truly crazy (someone along the lines of Cynthia McKinney), I do think the race would be the Dems' to lose.

[Pink Panther]

My sense is Raffensperger is still pretty popular even among most Republicans here in the N Atl suburbs (which also tend to have the highest turnout in the R primaries), so I'm not convinced Hice would take him out in a primary. I would also think the State Establishment R circles would also strongly back Raffensperger against Hice, which carries some weight given most voters probably don't know who Hice is.

That said, if Hice does win, barring the Ds nominating someone truly crazy (someone along the lines of Cynthia McKinney), I do think the race would be the Dems' to lose.

Off topic, but I wonder what happened to her.

[beesley]

My sense is Raffensperger is still pretty popular even among most Republicans here in the N Atl suburbs (which also tend to have the highest turnout in the R primaries), so I'm not convinced Hice would take him out in a primary. I would also think the State Establishment R circles would also strongly back Raffensperger against Hice, which carries some weight given most voters probably don't know who Hice is.

That said, if Hice does win, barring the Ds nominating someone truly crazy (someone along the lines of Cynthia McKinney), I do think the race would be the Dems' to lose.

Off topic, but I wonder what happened to her.

She became President of the United States.

[MaxQue]

My sense is Raffensperger is still pretty popular even among most Republicans here in the N Atl suburbs (which also tend to have the highest turnout in the R primaries), so I'm not convinced Hice would take him out in a primary. I would also think the State Establishment R circles would also strongly back Raffensperger against Hice, which carries some weight given most voters probably don't know who Hice is.

That said, if Hice does win, barring the Ds nominating someone truly crazy (someone along the lines of Cynthia McKinney), I do think the race would be the Dems' to lose.

Off topic, but I wonder what happened to her.

She is apparently an university teacher in Bangladesh.

[Horus]

My sense is Raffensperger is still pretty popular even among most Republicans here in the N Atl suburbs (which also tend to have the highest turnout in the R primaries), so I'm not convinced Hice would take him out in a primary. I would also think the State Establishment R circles would also strongly back Raffensperger against Hice, which carries some weight given most voters probably don't know who Hice is.

That said, if Hice does win, barring the Ds nominating someone truly crazy (someone along the lines of Cynthia McKinney), I do think the race would be the Dems' to lose.

McKinney is now a Libertarian and I'm pretty sure she endorsed Trump last year.

[Skill and Chance]

I’m hoping Barrow runs for SOS again, he was really wronged with the Supreme Court election cancellation

Ehhh... Barrow is just very old news at this point.  They could do better recruiting a young candidate from suburban Atlanta.

[Хahar 🤔]

All of a sudden there's a real logjam at the top for Georgia Democrats: the next time that someone new will be able to run for governor or Senate is 2026 at earliest, and probably later than that. Secretary of State is the highest-profile office available, and I wonder if it would have any appeal to someone like Jen Jordan, a rising star suddenly without anywhere to rise.

[Skill and Chance]

All of a sudden there's a real logjam at the top for Georgia Democrats: the next time that someone new will be able to run got governor or Senate is 2026 at earliest, and probably later than that. Secretary of State is the highest-profile office available, and I wonder if it would have any appeal to someone like Jen Jordan, a rising star suddenly without anywhere to rise.

You see a lot of examples of this in rapidly trending states- local elected officials with federal/statewide aspirations planning to wait their turn while the seats they were waiting for get taken by people who never held elected office in an upset.   

[Canis]

Georgia House passes bill allowing for RCV for Oversees and absentee ballots
http://ballot-access.org/2021/03/25/georgia-house-passes-bill-to-use-ranked-choice-voting-for-overseas-absentee-ballots/
If this bill passes in the state senate and is signed into law it would also make Runoffs occur 4 weeks after the election instead of 9 weeks. The ranking would only come into play in elections that would go to runoffs. The bill would also make it so that party preference for candidates in special elections would be shown.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I'm starting to get the feeling that 10 years down the line the GAGOP is going to look back at this moment as their Prop 187 moment.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm starting to get the feeling that 10 years down the line the GAGOP is going to look back at this moment as their Prop 187 moment.

I can see the reasoning for this argument, but for it to be valid, the GOP would have to have black votes they would lose because of it.

[Progressive Pessimist]

What drives me up the wall about Republican's efforts to suppress is voting is their complete disregard for wanting to understand what really cost them the presidency and the Senate in states like Georgia. For all the venom aimed at voters of color in Atlanta, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia they really should be more upset at white voters in Chester, Cobb, Oakland, and Ozaukee counties. It just goes to show that the Republican party really can't resist being racist.  

Obviously minority voters are integral to Democratic victories but in actuality it would be in the GOP's best interests in finally accepting how voting patterns are changing. Educated suburbanites are going to see attempts at suppressing the votes of people of color as the blatant manipulation that they are and continue reacting with disgust to the party and continue favoring Democrats. It may very well be the GOP shooting themselves in the foot in some states. I hope so. They deserve it.

[Adam Griffin]

What drives me up the wall about Republican's efforts to suppress is voting is their complete disregard for wanting to understand what really cost them the presidency and the Senate in states like Georgia. For all the venom aimed at voters of color in Atlanta, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia they really should be more upset at white voters in Chester, Cobb, Oakland, and Ozaukee counties. It just goes to show that the Republican party really can't resist being racist.  

Obviously minority voters are integral to Democratic victories but in actuality it would be in the GOP's best interests in finally accepting how voting patterns are changing. Educated suburbanites are going to see attempts at suppressing the votes of people of color as the blatant manipulation that they are and continue reacting with disgust to the party and continue favoring Democrats. It may very well be the GOP shooting themselves in the foot in some states. I hope so. They deserve it.

It's pretty hilarious - particularly in GA's case - because, as you touched on:

1) It was white voters that delivered GA (PRES) to the Democrats: Trump and the GOP gained with voters of color across the board (black, Latino, Asian) and still did worse than 2/4 years prior.

Democratic Coalition Composition by Race, Georgia

Group	2012	2014	2016	2018	2020
Black	62	64	63	59	54
White	27	30	28	32	38
Other	11	6	9	9	8

2) Throughout all of this, they seem unwilling to entertain the revocation of the number one election law-related reason they lost GA: automatic voter registration (which GAGOP implemented in the first place!). Increasing the voter rolls by 1.5m net people over 4 years - leading to 1m net new voters - is arguably the only non-Trump-related reason the state flipped when it did.

I would point out that GA's transformation over the past 4 years is perfectly in line with automatic voter registration trends.

Between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, GA netted 1,562,282 active registered voters. For several years now, Democrats have been roughly 60% of the gains in voter registration based on demographics alone. This would point to a net gain for Democrats of 312,000 registered voters between the two elections.

Roughly two-thirds of these voters can be expected to show in a presidential election. This would be a net of 200,100 registered voters for Democrats over the same time period.

Hillary Clinton lost the state by 211,141 votes; Biden won by 11,779. That's a net shift of 222,920 votes.

So:

2016-2020 VR Partisan Shift: 200,100
2016-2020 Actual Partisan Shift: 222,920

The state's margins are tracking very well with projected performance based on voter registration alone. Of course there is generational turnover that actually is factored into performance, but this one metric is performing at basically a 1:1 ratio for the time being. Over the next four years, the immense gains of AVR will dissipate as the entire eligible population becomes registered (we're already very close), but expect an additional baseline net gain for Democrats of 80-100k votes.

Unless "independents" or moderate suburbrons abandon the party, this is basically set in stone.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm starting to get the feeling that 10 years down the line the GAGOP is going to look back at this moment as their Prop 187 moment.

I can see the reasoning for this argument, but for it to be valid, the GOP would have to have black votes they would lose because of it.

There are probably many non-white voters they would otherwise have picked up in the next couple of elections that now won't flip because of stuff like this.  That could be decisive. 

On the other hand, it looks like the most severe and controversial provisions were removed from the final bill?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm starting to get the feeling that 10 years down the line the GAGOP is going to look back at this moment as their Prop 187 moment.

I can see the reasoning for this argument, but for it to be valid, the GOP would have to have black votes they would lose because of it.

There are probably many non-white voters they would otherwise have picked up in the next couple of elections that now won't flip because of stuff like this.  That could be decisive. 

On the other hand, it looks like the most severe and controversial provisions were removed from the final bill?

I doubt there are huge stores of non-white voters whose tipping point was this bill. Something like this won't actually move a lot of voters, not even black voters.

[GALeftist]

I'm starting to get the feeling that 10 years down the line the GAGOP is going to look back at this moment as their Prop 187 moment.

I can see the reasoning for this argument, but for it to be valid, the GOP would have to have black votes they would lose because of it.

Maybe not that many black votes, but I could see a substantial number of white voters taking the plunge earlier than they would have otherwise.

[Adam Griffin]

Was doing some regional analysis for an unrelated topic and found myself comparing shifts over the past decade. I ultimately decided to group these segments into 2 distinct regions (each of which comprises roughly half of the state).

A couple of top-level (otherwise non-obvious) observations:

1) Definitely shows the effects post-2018 among white and non-white voters: that a 67% white, largely rural area could see greater Democratic improvement than a 51% white, suburban/urban area would not have been expected at all prior to November.

2) Based on VAP alone, there's still reason to believe that more rural areas are underperforming representation-wise, given that the blue region comprises 52% of VAP but only comprised 47-49% of votes in 2008/2018/2020.

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[Pollster]

We completed our first poll of Georgia since right before the runoffs today. Caveat that the poll is of registered voters, not a likely voter model. Broad generalities, as always:

-Abrams is more popular today than she has ever been in any of our polling, though not by a huge amount (opinion of her has been baked in for a while).

-Kemp has made up a good chunk of lost ground among Republicans, but still faces a tough road. We actually found that his spat with Trump improved his numbers with independents and softer Democrats...the voting/elections bill saga completely reversed that.

-For the first time ever in our Georgia polling, a plurality of respondents favor increased gun control.

-By a wide margin, a plurality say that "the recent increased competitiveness of Georgia's statewide elections" is a good thing for the state, but only a plurality. Most Republicans/right-leaning independents say it is neither a good nor bad thing for the state.

-Georgians are divided three ways on whether or not the new law "mostly has to do with voting rights" or "mostly has to do with election administration" or "has to do with both voting rights and election administration." Majorities say the new law will make it harder to vote, but also say it will make it easier to conduct elections. Potentially a tricky spot for Dems.

-Young Republicans (under age 40, but more specifically under age 30) continue to be a major issue for the Georgia GOP. They show very little excitement about their elected officials at every level, and are starting to split with them on culture war issues. Important to remember that many of them grew up in rapidly diversifying suburban areas and are moving leftward on issues like gay rights, racial justice (particularly in the criminal justice reform/felons' voting rights vein), weed, and now even guns as well. Most of them remain cool towards Dem leaders as well, but decreased excitement and enthusiasm among this group will always hurt Republicans first.