Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Do we know how many people have requested ballots for January 5?

ETA:
https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1326973582161948673?s=20

[President Johnson]

Do we know how many people have requested ballots for January 5?

ETA:
https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1326973582161948673?s=20

Wholeheartedly endorsed.

[Pollster]

Wholly unsurprising yet simultaneously incredibly energizing.

[Heebie Jeebie]

2022 Predictions:

Governor:  Stacey Abrams
Senator:  Raphael Warnock
Lt. Governor:  Keisha Lance Bottoms
Attorney General:  Lucy McBath
Secretary of State:  Nikki Merritt

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Attorney General:  Lucy McBath

That's a very weird office to have McBath running for.

[lfromnj]

Abrams reelection campaign to continue being governor is a tossup.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Attorney General:  Lucy McBath

That's a very weird office to have McBath running for.

Don't you think it's better than being a back-bench Representative in the House minority?

[Continential]

Attorney General:  Lucy McBath

That's a very weird office to have McBath running for.

Don't you think it's better than being a back-bench Representative in the House minority?

She isn't a lawyer.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I think Keisha Lance Bottoms will serve in the Biden cabinet and there will be a messy battle for Atlanta Mayor in 2021.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Attorney General:  Lucy McBath

That's a very weird office to have McBath running for.

Don't you think it's better than being a back-bench Representative in the House minority?

She isn't a lawyer.

You don't have to be a lawyer to do the job.  In the House, she serves on the Committee on Education and Labor (the Subcommittee on Health, Employment, Labor, and Pensions, and the Subcommittee on Workforce Protections) and the Committee on the Judiciary (the Subcommittee on Antitrust, Commercial and Administrative Law, and the Subcommittee on Crime, Terrorism and Homeland Security).  If she can do that, she can run an Attorney General's office.

[Not Me, Us]

Attorney General:  Lucy McBath

That's a very weird office to have McBath running for.

Don't you think it's better than being a back-bench Representative in the House minority?

She isn't a lawyer.

You don't have to be a lawyer to do the job.  In the House, she serves on the Committee on Education and Labor (the Subcommittee on Health, Employment, Labor, and Pensions, and the Subcommittee on Workforce Protections) and the Committee on the Judiciary (the Subcommittee on Antitrust, Commercial and Administrative Law, and the Subcommittee on Crime, Terrorism and Homeland Security).  If she can do that, she can run an Attorney General's office.

You absolutely have to be an attorney to be attorney general.

[Heebie Jeebie]

Attorney General:  Lucy McBath

That's a very weird office to have McBath running for.

Don't you think it's better than being a back-bench Representative in the House minority?

She isn't a lawyer.

You don't have to be a lawyer to do the job.  In the House, she serves on the Committee on Education and Labor (the Subcommittee on Health, Employment, Labor, and Pensions, and the Subcommittee on Workforce Protections) and the Committee on the Judiciary (the Subcommittee on Antitrust, Commercial and Administrative Law, and the Subcommittee on Crime, Terrorism and Homeland Security).  If she can do that, she can run an Attorney General's office.

You absolutely have to be an attorney to be attorney general.

If that's a legal requirement, I wasn't aware and I stand corrected.  If not, in practice the AG is more of a political and managerial job so it doesn't really matter if they aren't up to date on the nuances of federal or state procedure, and I maintain that McBath would be well qualified.

EDIT:  Looked it up--you're right and I'm wrong.  The Georgia AG "must be an active-status member of the Georgia State Bar for seven years."  Though, interestingly, many states have no such formal requirement.

Updated 2022 Predictions:

Governor:  Stacey Abrams
Senator:  Raphael Warnock (Lucy McBath if Warnock loses his runoff)
Lt. Governor:  Keisha Lance Bottoms
Attorney General:  Teresa Tomlinson
Secretary of State:  Nikki Merritt

[Adam Griffin]

Maps showing which counties had raw turnout increase by more or less than overall (statewide, 2020 raw turnout was 121.98% of 2016's). Clear, very contiguous patterns exist when using this metric (and I don't think it is all necessarily tied to population decline).

The bottom map combines that data with whether the county swung R or D between 2016-2020: can you spot the white flight?

Of particular interest in general terms (in my opinion) are the light red counties (below average raw vote increase that swung D) and dark blue counties (above average raw vote increase that swung R).

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1327998018520551427?s=20

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/1327998018520551427?s=20

I wonder if this is the number of post-11/4 requests, or the total? Because there are >500k mail ballot requests just like in the general that are automatically queued up for the runoff (65+, disabled, veteran, overseas). If so, that'd imply only about 100k actual post-ED requests at max.

If that number is post-11/4 requests alone, then the total mail ballot requests would be north of 1.1m right now (for perspective, the total number of returned mail ballots in November was a little over 1.3m).

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1328688180497887234

LOL RIP BRIAN KEMP if Biden wins with this  relative turnout?

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ That data is likely bogus and isn't accounting for the huge increases in "other/unknown" voters that are siphoning off numbers among the newly-registered for white and black totals alike. Turnout stats aren't yet available from the state, which means they are using voter files (which may or may not be trying to guess which otherwise-undefined voters), or just guessing based on exit polls in general.

The same graph (if using VR stats as a baseline) would likely show a huge dip in white turnout as well, with Latino and Asian voters (who are the only groups growing by enough to offset the other/unknown misallocation trends) being the only groups to increase their share: and they combined in their explicitly-defined categories would be 5% at most, which isn't enough to objectively offset both black and white shares of the electorate.

I'm still standing by my premise that black turnout was fine, but that black support leaked to Trump (until I see SoS precinct breakdowns at minimum).


Speaking of reinforcing my assumptions (i.e. black voters swinging R, white voters minus some South GA areas swinging D), here's a simplified 2016-2020 swing map by precinct (from the NYT's link above):

[Rookie Yinzer]

I don’t know anything about the files that are updated during election season. Do we have data on absentee requests/votes yet? My friend voted the Democratic ticket with his absentee ballot today.

[randomusername]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/527882-trump-im-ashamed-that-i-endorsed-kemp-in-georgia

If a Trump loyalist runs as a third-party in 2022, that could give Stacey Abrams a massive boost (in what theoretically would be considered a Republican year)

[GALeftist]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/527882-trump-im-ashamed-that-i-endorsed-kemp-in-georgia

If a Trump loyalist runs as a third-party in 2022, that could give Stacey Abrams a massive boost (in what theoretically would be considered a Republican year)

lol what a great party

[lfromnj]

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/527882-trump-im-ashamed-that-i-endorsed-kemp-in-georgia

If a Trump loyalist runs as a third-party in 2022, that could give Stacey Abrams a massive boost (in what theoretically would be considered a Republican year)

"Republican year"

Just like how 2012 was R+7.8 in the closest Georgia race and 2014 was R+7.7?

[2016]

The Republican Party still hasn't realized how much leverage Trump has over them. Yes, he'll be out of Office come January 20th but he'll be the one who is going to pick Candidates for the 2022 Midterms and not the Steve Schmidt's, Bill Kristols, Kochs and Murdochs of this world.

And if McConnell does compromise with Democrats in the Senate Trump is going to throw Mitch under the bus I can guarantee you that. The Trump Party is a lot bigger than the Republican Party.

[Adam Griffin]

As of yesterday, 965,474 ballots have been requested for the January 5 runoff.

This includes:

• 631,332 automatic ballots for November GE 65+, disabled, veteran and/or overseas voters
• 334,142 ballots manually requested post-11/3

[QAnonKelly]

I finally got the DOL to get me a replacement UI debit card because I never received mine in April.

[GALeftist]

Lol, I just went to drop off my absentee ballot and there was some NEET lookin kid in a Trump shirt like examining the dropbox and trying to look in and stuff, he came up to me and asked if it was locked (the dropbox was working fine). Claimed to be "canvassing." The GOP certainly has a devoted base