Georgia's Very Own Megathread!
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  Georgia's Very Own Megathread!
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #600 on: October 30, 2020, 09:42:25 AM »

Harris coming back to Georgia and North Carolina (2 separate stops) on Sunday.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #601 on: October 30, 2020, 10:40:49 AM »
« Edited: October 30, 2020, 11:30:22 AM by Questionable Intent »

^^^ And Trump's going to be in Rome on Monday Sunday evening apparently...
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #602 on: October 30, 2020, 12:50:50 PM »

Rep. Drew Ferguson has tested positive for COVID, and Gov. Kemp and his wife are quarantining after exposure.


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forsythvoter
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« Reply #603 on: October 31, 2020, 12:04:50 AM »

Hope they recover and start to take COVID more seriously in terms of state policy

Rep. Drew Ferguson has tested positive for COVID, and Gov. Kemp and his wife are quarantining after exposure.


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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #604 on: October 31, 2020, 01:47:46 PM »

Obama is coming to Georgia on Monday. IM SHOOK.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #605 on: October 31, 2020, 02:19:14 PM »

Obama is coming to Georgia on Monday. IM SHOOK.

He'll be at a public Atlanta rally. You should go.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #606 on: October 31, 2020, 03:08:41 PM »
« Edited: October 31, 2020, 03:16:24 PM by Questionable Intent »

The plotted stops of Harris, Obama and Trump:



Besides their presences in the final 48 hours of the campaign, where they are going says a lot as well. Particularly interesting to me is why Trump's team felt the need to choose Rome as opposed to, say, Gainesville or Canton.

(I saw some real internal data broken down by region at the beginning of October: let's just say that Rome/NW GA would make a better defensive choice for Trump if that data was accurate; it showed Trump sliding much more in NW GA than NE GA.)
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #607 on: October 31, 2020, 03:24:57 PM »

Besides their presences in the final 48 hours of the campaign, where they are going says a lot as well. Particularly interesting to me is why Trump's team felt the need to choose Rome as opposed to, say, Gainesville or Canton.

(I saw some real internal data broken down by region at the beginning of October: let's just say that Rome/NW GA would make a better defensive choice for Trump if that data was accurate; it showed Trump sliding much more in NW GA than NE GA.)

That's interesting and frankly surprising. Isn't NE GA (Hall, Forsyth, Cherokee, etc.) more connected to Atlanta and thus more liberal? Do you see anything on the ground in NW GA to indicate Trump slipping?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #608 on: October 31, 2020, 04:31:28 PM »

Besides their presences in the final 48 hours of the campaign, where they are going says a lot as well. Particularly interesting to me is why Trump's team felt the need to choose Rome as opposed to, say, Gainesville or Canton.

(I saw some real internal data broken down by region at the beginning of October: let's just say that Rome/NW GA would make a better defensive choice for Trump if that data was accurate; it showed Trump sliding much more in NW GA than NE GA.)

That's interesting and frankly surprising. Isn't NE GA (Hall, Forsyth, Cherokee, etc.) more connected to Atlanta and thus more liberal? Do you see anything on the ground in NW GA to indicate Trump slipping?

Screw it: we're 72 hours away and this R internal was taken the first week of October (+ I've already showed it to some Atlas members in confidence). I got the region boundaries used, the topline margins from each region and the share of each region in the poll for the presidential leaked to me. Here's the map/regional breakdowns (reconstructed by me in DRA) along with 16/18 margins added (by me, of course). 2500 LVs.

"NW Georgia" here includes a significant portion of suburban ATL turf (Cherokee, Paulding, even Carroll) - but it would not shock me at all to see more a shift across the broader turf when compared to NE GA: a lot of people moving into NE GA are wealthy out-of-state types seeking rural life (make of that what you will). NW (non-ATL) GA on the other hand is an area with the largest Latino population share in GA (as a broader geographic region) and is one of the most heavily-manufacturing economies in the country. Latinos + tariffs/job losses + the suburban ATL swings = not too surprising.

I don't expect it to swing by 11 points any more than I expect the inner ATL metro to only swing by 8, but alas. Some of these regions only have 150-300 LVs each. Rounded, this showed Biden +1 overall.

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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #609 on: November 01, 2020, 08:18:57 AM »

Besides their presences in the final 48 hours of the campaign, where they are going says a lot as well. Particularly interesting to me is why Trump's team felt the need to choose Rome as opposed to, say, Gainesville or Canton.

(I saw some real internal data broken down by region at the beginning of October: let's just say that Rome/NW GA would make a better defensive choice for Trump if that data was accurate; it showed Trump sliding much more in NW GA than NE GA.)

That's interesting and frankly surprising. Isn't NE GA (Hall, Forsyth, Cherokee, etc.) more connected to Atlanta and thus more liberal? Do you see anything on the ground in NW GA to indicate Trump slipping?

Chuckle on NE GA being more liberal.

Actually, Forsyth and Cherokee are more connected to metro Atlanta.  As you go on I-75 north, Bartow County and above in NW GA are much less so.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #610 on: November 01, 2020, 10:08:52 AM »

Besides their presences in the final 48 hours of the campaign, where they are going says a lot as well. Particularly interesting to me is why Trump's team felt the need to choose Rome as opposed to, say, Gainesville or Canton.

(I saw some real internal data broken down by region at the beginning of October: let's just say that Rome/NW GA would make a better defensive choice for Trump if that data was accurate; it showed Trump sliding much more in NW GA than NE GA.)

That's interesting and frankly surprising. Isn't NE GA (Hall, Forsyth, Cherokee, etc.) more connected to Atlanta and thus more liberal? Do you see anything on the ground in NW GA to indicate Trump slipping?

Chuckle on NE GA being more liberal.

Actually, Forsyth and Cherokee are more connected to metro Atlanta.  As you go on I-75 north, Bartow County and above in NW GA are much less so.

The southern half of Forsyth (the part in GA-07) is becoming more and more an extension of the north Fulton cities of Alpharetta, Milton, and Johns Creek, and is going to vote more like them.  The northern part (in GA-09) is more conservative, but is also becoming less so as population booms off the northern exits of Georgia highway 400.
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #611 on: November 01, 2020, 05:28:08 PM »

Looks like Kemp isn’t gonna be able to vote lol.

 

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forsythvoter
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« Reply #612 on: November 01, 2020, 07:09:16 PM »

Forsyth and maybe Cherokee should really be part of the ATL region given most of the population and growth are in the southern portions, but the northern half of the two counties would fit in well with North GA culturally. Forsyth is almost certainly going to have a strong D swing (may be the largest in the state) due to new voters and Trump being an unusually bad fit for the high amount of college educated voters in this area.

Besides their presences in the final 48 hours of the campaign, where they are going says a lot as well. Particularly interesting to me is why Trump's team felt the need to choose Rome as opposed to, say, Gainesville or Canton.

(I saw some real internal data broken down by region at the beginning of October: let's just say that Rome/NW GA would make a better defensive choice for Trump if that data was accurate; it showed Trump sliding much more in NW GA than NE GA.)

That's interesting and frankly surprising. Isn't NE GA (Hall, Forsyth, Cherokee, etc.) more connected to Atlanta and thus more liberal? Do you see anything on the ground in NW GA to indicate Trump slipping?

Screw it: we're 72 hours away and this R internal was taken the first week of October (+ I've already showed it to some Atlas members in confidence). I got the region boundaries used, the topline margins from each region and the share of each region in the poll for the presidential leaked to me. Here's the map/regional breakdowns (reconstructed by me in DRA) along with 16/18 margins added (by me, of course). 2500 LVs.

"NW Georgia" here includes a significant portion of suburban ATL turf (Cherokee, Paulding, even Carroll) - but it would not shock me at all to see more a shift across the broader turf when compared to NE GA: a lot of people moving into NE GA are wealthy out-of-state types seeking rural life (make of that what you will). NW (non-ATL) GA on the other hand is an area with the largest Latino population share in GA (as a broader geographic region) and is one of the most heavily-manufacturing economies in the country. Latinos + tariffs/job losses + the suburban ATL swings = not too surprising.

I don't expect it to swing by 11 points any more than I expect the inner ATL metro to only swing by 8, but alas. Some of these regions only have 150-300 LVs each. Rounded, this showed Biden +1 overall.


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TrumpBritt24
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« Reply #613 on: November 03, 2020, 03:54:07 PM »

Anecdotal

Spoke to a close friend who works in the Athens GOP.

Party is feeling fairly confident about their stance in the Special, but increasingly worried about the Perdue/Ossoff race, expecting an overperformance by Libertarian Shane Hazel. Noted that some prominent local Republicans themselves say they are a fan of him.
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« Reply #614 on: November 03, 2020, 04:09:32 PM »

Anecdotal

Last week I spoke to a 72-year-old retired pilot who lives near Atlanta he is a lifelong Republican and this is the first time he is voting Democrat and he is voting straight ticket.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #615 on: November 05, 2020, 04:02:46 AM »

US House Popular Vote

Republicans 2,456,792 (52.5%)
Democrats 2,220,645 (47.5%)

GA State Senate Popular Vote

Republicans 2,388,617 (54.1%)
Democrats 2,029,246 (45.9%)

I'll do House in the morning




for future reference this does not include the outstanding absentee ballots yet to report that will probably push Biden over the edge. current prez vote is:

2,429,783 Trump (49.6%)
2,406,774 Biden (49.2%)
60,265 Jorgensen (1.2%)
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Bacon King
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« Reply #616 on: November 07, 2020, 04:28:15 AM »

GA State House Popular Vote

Republicans 2,357,154 (51.73%)
Democrats 2,189,289 (48.25%)
independent 1,129 (0.02%)

note: there were 141 Democratic candidates, 125 GOP candidates, and one independent candidate



for future reference the count is almost but not quite entirely complete. current prez vote:

2,456,845 Biden (49.34%)
2,452,845 Trump (49.42%)
61,672 Jorgensen (1.24%)
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #617 on: November 07, 2020, 11:30:17 PM »

I'm going to start posting my #analysis in bits and pieces. I can't wait for the precinct turnout data to become available next month! In the meantime, there are some pretty clear trends afoot that contributed to a Biden win.

Disclaimer: I am going to compare Georgia's results to 2018, because 1) we basically had a presidential election in 2018 and 2) the baseline for 2018 was far more relevant to this year than the baseline for 2016.



First: it's rather obvious at this point that Biden lost ground with non-white voters of every category when compared to 2018 (and even 2016). You can see it in the maps (below) quite easily. You can see it in the Latino vote in my county (guess which 3 precincts have the most Latino vote?). The raw vote margin Biden garnered from non-whites probably increased - but so did the overall number of voters (raw turnout is 120% of 2018's total). Once the demographic turnout figures are released, we'll see if Biden's raw turnout-adjusted margin among non-white voters increased or not (my guess is no).

The black vote is obviously the easiest area in which to spot this given its size. There were 25 counties that swung R compared to 2018: in the 25 blackest-counties, 9 of them swung R in 2020 (and several more barely swung D). We might be able to contribute much of this to simple black population decline throughout large parts of rural Georgia, except...Clayton swung R by 5 points, while Dekalb swung R by half a point. Additionally, the single-biggest R swing was in Hancock: the blackest county in Georgia. There's a fairly strong (though not perfect) correlation between black population percentage and R swing showing up in this election across a variety of terrains. Again, precinct data in December will verify or refute this.




Next: while an election this close can result in dozens of individual groups being (rightfully) given credit for the win, it's quite obvious that the single-biggest group that deviated from expectations (i.e. that weren't already primed to swing D and/or pad Democratic margins statewide) was rural white Georgia.

Biden did significantly better among white rural Georgians than the past two top-ticket candidates (see map below), especially in North Georgia (but generally everywhere as well). This goes to show what I have argued but many don't want to accept: that Clinton (and especially Abrams) were bad fits for rural Georgia, and therefore this group - for the time being, at least - still has sway over whether Democrats win or not. I'll do some more precise calculations in the next few days, but my back-of-the-napkin math points to Biden losing GA by 40-50k votes if he had performed as Abrams did in rural GA in 2018.




Last but not least: the current 30 counties with the greatest D swings (2018-2020). If the above points didn't drive it home, then consider a couple of data-points here:

  • My county (Whitfield) swung exactly as much as Cobb County
  • Gwinnett County didn't even make the list
  • The combined list was 60-39 Kemp & 70-21 white

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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #618 on: November 09, 2020, 05:17:41 AM »

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lfromnj
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« Reply #619 on: November 09, 2020, 10:37:45 AM »

So increased hispanic vote is moving Whitfield to the left despite a hispanic swing right.
GJ Adam.
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RFKFan68
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« Reply #620 on: November 09, 2020, 08:18:36 PM »

So an (Atlas) red Fayette in 2022? 2024?
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #621 on: November 11, 2020, 12:26:35 AM »

So an (Atlas) red Fayette in 2022? 2024?

I think the more likely of the two would be 2024. Even if favorable realignment trends continue, there's likely to be a dampening effect of some sort in 2022 just because it's a Democratic midterm.

I wouldn't rule out a 2022 win, though. Fayette swung 12.7 points to Biden compared to Clinton (and 6.9 points compared to Abrams). That averages out to a 3.3-point Democratic shift every 2 years: if that rate of movement held (which this is a dubious comparison, admittedly), you could see a 0.2-point win in 2022. Again, this is without any negative effects applying as a result of a Democratic midterm.

So increased hispanic vote is moving Whitfield to the left despite a hispanic swing right.
GJ Adam.

Yes - the sheer increase in their representation is a major long-term driving force and why my county doesn't vote closer to 80% Republican (our whites still aren't as GOP as the surrounding area). A potentially interesting fact: from at least 2008 through 2016, Whitfield's whites were a near-perfect bellwether/predictor of statewide white Democratic vote share. With Abrams, that dynamic finally broke down and now white Democratic vote share here is 5-7 points less than the state.

Once we get the demographic precinct breakdowns in December, I'll know precisely to what extent Latinos and whites contributed. However, it's clear from the precinct results that white voters still contributed the bulk of the shift; all but 1 of Whitfield's precincts that swung to Biden by >5 points are generally the precincts that are among the wealthiest and/or have the largest concentrations of white college grads.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #622 on: November 11, 2020, 12:31:11 AM »

I don't know if the SUBURBAN TITAN DAVID PERDUE memes and what have you originated from my insistence last year that Perdue would meaningfully overperform in the metro, but: told you so. Tongue

Here's a set of maps comparing Trump's margin against Perdue's. All 3 maps show the same thing, but in different ways.

The top two maps show which candidate had the stronger margin (red is Perdue, green is Trump). Perdue did better than Trump in all but 25 counties - with the only counties of substantial population being Clayton and Bartow.

The bottom map shows which counties had stronger than average Perdue overperformances (statewide as of right now, Perdue is doing 2.02 points better than Trump; counties where his overperformance is greater than that are colored red).

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skbl17
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« Reply #623 on: November 11, 2020, 11:50:44 AM »

The Public Service Commission runoff and all other state runoffs will be delayed until January 5 (the same day as the Senate runoffs).
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #624 on: November 11, 2020, 12:51:04 PM »

Based on my tracking of provisional ballots prior to military ballots being counted/the raw vote margins that have shifted since then, Biden won approximately 55% of the military vote in Georgia.

While this category doesn't get delineated by SoS, assuming 75% of black military voters cast ballots for Biden (a fair number given that black voters in heavily-military precincts around the state have tended to be around 80% D historically), that means Biden won 40% of the non-black military vote (and was in the high-thirties among white military voters - significantly better than the overall state white D vote share!).

What kind of an s[inks]thead do you have to be as a sitting Republican President to do 10 points worse with the military vote than overall (and close to 20 points worse among whites specifically)?
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