Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Today's Doonesbury comic hits Gov. Brian Kemp for his voter purges: https://www.gocomics.com/doonesbury/2020/10/04

[Cassandra]

Hey can anyone explain or link to an explainer of the constitutional amendments/referendums that are on the ballot?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hey can anyone explain or link to an explainer of the constitutional amendments/referendums that are on the ballot?

Check Ballotpedia. I voted Yes on all three.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

How did Alpharetta vote in 2016-2018, and how do you think it will vote in 2020?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

How did Alpharetta vote in 2016-2018, and how do you think it will vote in 2020?

Trump+8
Kemp+2

I think Biden should flip it.

[forsythvoter]

I live in nearby South Forsyth County and would bet money on Biden flipping a number of northern Atlanta suburbs. A lot of my co-workers live in Roswell, Alpharetta, Johns Creek, Dunwoody and a good number of them are flipping from Trump to Biden this year. The ones that are flipping are still undecided on the senate races, though - many of us vote Republican out of habit, but Trump is really causing a lot of folks in this area to have second thoughts now that it's "Trump's Party". Trump will still win more exurban areas (including my county and nearby Cherokee), but I'll be curious to see the margins. I've seen quite a few Biden signs in my neighborhood, which would have been unheard of up until fairly recently.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I live in nearby South Forsyth County and would bet money on Biden flipping a number of northern Atlanta suburbs. A lot of my co-workers live in Roswell, Alpharetta, Johns Creek, Dunwoody and a good number of them are flipping from Trump to Biden this year. The ones that are flipping are still undecided on the senate races, though - many of us vote Republican out of habit, but Trump is really causing a lot of folks in this area to have second thoughts now that it's "Trump's Party". Trump will still win more exurban areas (including my county and nearby Cherokee), but I'll be curious to see the margins. I've seen quite a few Biden signs in my neighborhood, which would have been unheard of up until fairly recently.

I’m curious to see if Biden can break 30% in your county. Welcome!

[forsythvoter]

Thanks @TrendsareUsuallyReal! It's definitely going to happen in South Forsyth - Biden might get closer to 40% in this part of the county from what I'm observing, but not sure how the more exurban and rural areas will go.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My guess is that Forsyth will go somewhere around 65-35 for Trump (for comparison, it was 71-24 Trump in 2016 and 81-18 Romney in 2012).

[Rookie Yinzer]

Man these Trump margins in suburban Atlanta are going to be devastating. I'm interested in seeing how he underperforms in college educated suburban/exurban counties outside of ATL like Columbia, Oconee, Houston as well.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Man these Trump margins in suburban Atlanta are going to be devastating. I'm interested in seeing how he underperforms in college educated suburban/exurban counties outside of ATL like Columbia, Oconee, Houston as well.

I’m actually from Houston County so I’m interested to see if Democrats can cut down on GOP margins there this year (partially for my own future political aims)

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

My guess is that Forsyth will go somewhere around 65-35 for Trump (for comparison, it was 71-24 Trump in 2016 and 81-18 Romney in 2012).

That would be downright crippling for Trump. Kemp won it 71-28, and that was already a historically low performance for R's.

[skbl17]

In district attorney election news, the Georgia Supreme Court unanimously rules that the District Attorney election for the Western Judicial Circuit (Clarke and Oconee counties) must be held this year, rather than waiting until 2022.

[forsythvoter]

Trump definitely has room to fall from Kemp's performance in 2018 in Forsyth given trends that are ongoing but have been accelerating:
1) There's a sizeable contingent of Republican-leaning voters who've never liked Trump but still voted Republican, but and now think Biden would be easier to stomach for the next four years than Trump. I and several of my neighbors / friends fall into this bucket, actually
2) On top of that, there's also a rapidly growing Asian (especially Indian) population that seems highly excited by Harris being selected as VP, and they will probably turn-out in much higher numbers than is typical
3) Tech workers who have started moving into the county in large numbers due to the tech boom in nearby Alpharetta. It seems like people in those industries lean pretty Democratic.

My guess is that Forsyth will go somewhere around 65-35 for Trump (for comparison, it was 71-24 Trump in 2016 and 81-18 Romney in 2012).

That would be downright crippling for Trump. Kemp won it 71-28, and that was already a historically low performance for R's.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I feel like Fayette County is going to shock the hell out of people come November 4...

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I feel like Fayette County is going to shock the hell out of people come November 4...

I agree. Douglass, Henry, Rockdale, and Newton have all flipped in the south suburbs. Most people thought Gwinnett and Cobb were to much of a lift in 2016 and they've flipped. I definitely see Biden winning Fayette as a legitimate possibility.

[forsythvoter]

I think Trump will win Fayette by somewhere in the mid to high single digits (maybe low double digits if he's having a good night), but it's pretty clearly heading in the D direction. Fayette strikes me as a southside metro version of Cobb - mix of traditionally and still affluent (PTC) with rapidly diversifying inner / middle class suburbia (North Fayette and Fayetteville), plus a few more rural parts towards the southern end. Cobb went from +14R in 2012 to +2D in 2016, so I could see a similar shift away from the Trump in Fayette this time around.

[DrScholl]

Democrats did of course outvote Republicans in the primary so Fayette County could go Democratic this year. The D vs. R variance between the 2018 primary and general elections was barely any different (in fact, Kemp got almost 2% less than the combined GOP total in the primary). My prediction is that the general election totals will somewhat mirror the primary.

[Adam Griffin]

It's hard to say what'll happen with Fayette, but in terms of its growth and primary turnout, the odds would suggest less than a 50% chance of flipping when taking a 30,000-foot view:

'20 Primary, % of '16 Pres GE Turnout:
Fayette: 47.95
Georgia: 49.11

'20 Primary, % of '18 Gov GE Turnout:
Fayette: 50.86
Georgia: 51.63

This is despite the fact that Fayette County is growing at a faster clip than the state as a whole and has the third highest MHI of any county in the state; had real turnout been equal in Fayette relative to the state, its share along these lines should have been higher, not lower. This tentatively suggests a turnout differential was in play here that may have benefitted Democratic vote share in the primary.

[Adam Griffin]

The final pre-EV voting figures (total votes cast: 439018).

[QAnonKelly]

Took me three hours today to vote and I don’t even live in a big county. My grandparents said it took an hour and they’ve live in a rural county.

[Dr. Arch]

Took me three hours today to vote and I don’t even live in a big county. My grandparents said it took an hour and they’ve live in a rural county.

Looking forward to seeing those EV totals.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Voter suppression is real but I wonder how COVID restrictions play into these long lines as well. It’s an awful situation all around.

I saw my vote was received and accepted. So glad I can dedicate the next 22 days on getting other people out.

[Adam Griffin]

Voter suppression is real but I wonder how COVID restrictions play into these long lines as well. It’s an awful situation all around.

Basically most of it. People don't realize how much of an impact COVID is having. Just like in the primary, there are tons of cutesy videos on social media saying "look how these lines wrap around the block!", ignoring that prior to this year, people standing in line were spacing themselves 1-2 feet apart instead of 5-10 feet. It should also be mentioned that there's a subtle phenomenon here just like with car traffic: when people are further spaced apart, as they're served at the front of the line, there is a cascading delay effect the longer the line is (physically) in terms of people moving forward when able. When you have thousands of people in line over the day at a voting site, this actually starts adding up. Lines in my county were 30-40 minutes consistently today, which is relatively unreasonable...until you consider that regular wait times of 60-90 minutes were common throughout most of 2016 EV in Whitfield.

Add to that the fact that the first day of early in-person voting is always a clusterf[inks]k in GA, as tons of people (relatively) show up on the first day. The reality is that these wait times were largely created by high-info Democrats wanting to "send a message" or whatever, when they could have just submitted an application in 90 seconds online and received their ballot (whether they dropped it off in-person or cast it by mail directly would be up to them).

County election boards likely haven't ramped up staff as much as might have otherwise occurred because 35-40% of 2016 voters have already requested a mail ballot, which takes some pressure off in-person voting (both EV & ED, but especially EV given a metric s[inks]t-ton of GOP voters are still going to insist on voting on ED). Additionally, it's not exactly easy to hire lots of temporary staff when you're having to put people at multiple locations throughout a county, which usually means EV sites in metro areas are understaffed (to contrast, at my county's 1 EV site, there were 6 people checking in voters alone because the site is the county elections board and these people are full-time staff). As an example, Metro ATL had more in-person early voting sites than ever before yet record wait times - because they're spreading their resources too thin in the name of "easier access".


126,876 votes were cast on the first day, which...isn't that impressive. Sure, it's the biggest number for any election in terms of the first day of EV, but:

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1315801909744238593

https://twitter.com/gtryan/status/1315819283629441024

[Adam Griffin]

After today's update of voters, the electorate got quite a bit blacker (33.6 -> 34.4) and substantially younger (18-29: 5.2 -> 6.1; 65+: 60.0 -> 52.5).

601,247 voters have cast ballots as of Monday.