Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1159131047344443392

[YE]

Isn’t the Georgia State House unwinnable?

[Politician]

Isn’t the Georgia State House unwinnable?

It's an extreme Longshot.

Here are my rating for State Houses:

And State Senate's (CO/NV a Democratic legislator could be recalled, otherwise they would be Safe D)

[ON Progressive]

Isn’t the Georgia State House unwinnable?

It’s not unwinnable, but it’s definitely Likely R.

[Adam Griffin]

Isn’t the Georgia State House unwinnable?

From a nominal standpoint and based on 2018, Democrats would need to win every seat where the GOP candidate won by single-digits to get a 1-seat majority.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Geez this state is so polarized. Am I right when I see only 4 districts that were decided by single digits? That's why I laugh when I see people hand wringing about Tomlinson being full throated on impeachment and blowing up the filibuster.

[Pericles]

Given State Senate seems have been Kemp 33-Abrams 23, it seems some state Senate districts are represented by a different party from the one they voted for Governor. Also can someone get me info on the current composition of the Georgia State Senate, I have seen both 37 R-19 D and 35 R-21 D.

[Adam Griffin]

Geez this state is so polarized. Am I right when I see only 4 districts that were decided by single digits? That's why I laugh when I see people hand wringing about Tomlinson being full throated on impeachment and blowing up the filibuster.

As far as State House goes and if I recall correctly, there were 16 HDs that were won by the GOP State House nominee by less than 10.0 points; Democrats won 75 seats (+11 compared to 2016) in the State House.

EDIT: oh, you were talking about the Senate. Yes, that sounds right more or less. In many states where legislatures have went from R to D, the Senates have flipped first. However, I think in GA, the lower chamber will be the first to flip of the two. It's not an absolute hard rule, but in GA, bigger districts = harder for Democrats to flip given the sheer polarization and localized concentration of Democratic voters.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Given State Senate seems have been Kemp 33-Abrams 23, it seems some state Senate districts are represented by a different party from the one they voted for Governor. Also can someone get me info on the current composition of the Georgia State Senate, I have seen both 37 R-19 D and 35 R-21 D.

It's 35R-21D Senate Districts 40 and 48 flipped last November.

[Storr]

Given State Senate seems have been Kemp 33-Abrams 23, it seems some state Senate districts are represented by a different party from the one they voted for Governor. Also can someone get me info on the current composition of the Georgia State Senate, I have seen both 37 R-19 D and 35 R-21 D.

It's 35R-21D Senate Districts 40 and 48 flipped last November.

Hopefully (at least) Senate Districts 9 and 56 flip in 2020.

[QAnonKelly]

Federal judge ruled today that the state has to stop all paperless voting as of January 1st.

[Adam Griffin]

Unscientific straw poll from Whitfield County's Kennedy-Carter Dinner. The vast majority of people in attendance were from Whitfield and Gordon.

(For those wondering, median age was probably ~50 and the racial breakdown was 65% white, 25% black and 10% latino; not at all much different from the national primary electorate)




And for reference, here are last year's results (taken the same week in 2018):

27% Joe Biden
23% Elizabeth Warren
21% Bernie Sanders
12% Cory Booker
11% Somebody Else
6% Kamala Harris

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1166720735999668224

[Continential]

Are there any GOPers who may run for Isakson's seat?

[skbl17]

Are there any GOPers who may run for Isakson's seat?

The AJC reports that some potential candidates include:

* Attorney General Chris Carr
* Senate President Pro Tem Butch Miller
* Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan
* Congressman Doug Collins (ugh)
* Agriculture Secretary (and former Governor) Sonny Perdue

They may be appointed by Kemp to serve as a placeholder; they could then decide to run in 2020.

Other names that have been suggested for the seat include Jack Kingston (double ugh,) Nick Ayers (he said no,) and Karen Handel.

Of course, from that AJC list only Perdue could be appointed without triggering some kind of early special election:

* Collins is a sitting congressman. Luckily for the GOP, his seat is Safe R under any circumstances.

* Butch Miller is a sitting state senator. His seat is Safe R, but quirky things can happen with low-turnout state special elections (like that time in 2015 when a Republican won a D+30-ish majority-minority state Senate seat because of low turnout).

* Carr and Duncan are incumbent row officers. Under the state constitution, Kemp would appoint their replacements and quasi-special elections would likely be held in 2020 to elect replacements to serve until 2022.

[Rookie Yinzer]

* Butch Miller is a sitting state senator. His seat is Safe R, but quirky things can happen with low-turnout state special elections (like that time in 2015 when a Republican won a D+30-ish majority-minority state Senate seat because of low turnout).

That was us! Sorry y'all.

Anyway- I hope McBath is the consensus candidate for Isakson's seat.

[QAnonKelly]

So I’m in the district with the special house election and I voted last week. Turns out the lady I voted for isn’t even a dem but rather a never-Trumper running as a dem. Don’t know how to feel about it but I guess I need to learn to do my research better and it’s not like she’s gonna win anyway

[Rookie Yinzer]

So I’m in the district with the special house election and I voted last week. Turns out the lady I voted for isn’t even a dem but rather a never-Trumper running as a dem. Don’t know how to feel about it but I guess I need to learn to do my research better and it’s not like she’s gonna win anyway

HD-71?

[QAnonKelly]

So I’m in the district with the special house election and I voted last week. Turns out the lady I voted for isn’t even a dem but rather a never-Trumper running as a dem. Don’t know how to feel about it but I guess I need to learn to do my research better and it’s not like she’s gonna win anyway

HD-71?

Yep

[Rookie Yinzer]

So I’m in the district with the special house election and I voted last week. Turns out the lady I voted for isn’t even a dem but rather a never-Trumper running as a dem. Don’t know how to feel about it but I guess I need to learn to do my research better and it’s not like she’s gonna win anyway

HD-71?

Yep

Oh wow. I know people who canvassed for her. They definitely didn't know that about her. LOL.

[QAnonKelly]

So I’m in the district with the special house election and I voted last week. Turns out the lady I voted for isn’t even a dem but rather a never-Trumper running as a dem. Don’t know how to feel about it but I guess I need to learn to do my research better and it’s not like she’s gonna win anyway

HD-71?

Yep

Oh wow. I know people who canvassed for her. They definitely didn't know that about her. LOL.

I don’t think I would have voted if I had known this

[Adam Griffin]

Just a couple of updates from a very reliable source:

• 15+ "credible" candidates have reached out to the state party in interest over Isakson's seat
• Sally Yates is not interested in elected office at all

[Rookie Yinzer]

Just a couple of updates from a very reliable source:

• 15+ "credible" candidates have reached out to the state party in interest over Isakson's seat
• Sally Yates is not interested in elected office at all

I just want to know if McBath is one of them? She's the only one whose potential candidacy excites me.

Yeah... Sally Yates is never going to happen. #ResistanceTwitter needs to let it go. LOL.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Whew! Stacey Abrams & Fair Fight Action just released the most comprehensive case for Georgia being a swing state I have ever seen:

-Georgia is experiencing a population boom, and it is benefiting progressive candidates. For voters who have lived in GA less than 10 years- they voted for Abrams 65-35
-Stacey Abrams tripled Asian and Latinx turnout, increased black turnout by 40%, and youth turnout by 139%
-Stacey Abrams got unprecedented levels of support from college-educated white women.
-As of June 2019, there have been 200,000 new registered voters since the last election, these voters lean Democratic.
-By November 2020, there will be 1.7 million irregular and new voters on the rolls who did not vote in 2018 and are inclined to support Democratic candidates.
-There have been at least 80,000 Abrams supporters identified as victims of voter suppression. She lost* by 54,000.
-Georgia is changing fast, and non-white voters will make up 42% of the voters in 2020 (up from 40% in 2018)

So much more detailed than my cliff notes. Check it out:

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1o3D06XqVado9icWfhAw5ylL6KaiBuWSm

[Cassandra]

Shenanigans!!!

https://flagpole.com/news/city-dope/2019/09/11/weird-winterville-election-results-raise-questions