Georgia's Very Own Megathread!
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  Georgia's Very Own Megathread!
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skbl17
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« Reply #25 on: June 25, 2019, 12:29:02 PM »

What do you think about Senate District 17? Brian Strickland won 54-46 in 2018. I guess how he'll do is dependent on if Abrams 2018 is the new Democratic floor in a high turnout general election. Not sure how Abrams did in this district.

I live in SD-17. I do think it can flip down the road with demographic changes, but as of now it's a bit too red for 2020. The problem for Dems is that the district takes in the entire southern half of Henry - including the blood-red bits in HD-109 and HD-110 - and the entire eastern half of Newton, a part that has precincts that vote GOP by northern-Forsyth County margins.

Since 2012, the margins for SD-17 have been:

- 2012: Jeffares (R)+25.6
- 2014: Jeffares unopposed
- 2016: Jeffares (R)+19.3
- (2018 special: Strickland (R)+27.6*)
- 2018: Strickland (R)+9.0

I'm ignoring the 2018 special because as with HD-111, HD-117, and HD-119, insanely low turnout can make things very misleading. I'd imagine that a contested 2020 race in SD-17 would look a lot like a redder version of HD-109 from last year: it will look closer than expected but still be a decent win for Strickland (probably a 4-point margin). Abrams probably lost SD-17 by high single digits.

The Dems should certainly try to play for SD-17, which they'll be doing anyway considering the Tossup nature of the (somewhat) overlapping HD-109, but I'll have to characterize the Senate district as Likely R for 2020.

Anyone know what the state house margin was? I know we’d have to win probably 60 % to flip it and the senate is worse so best we can do is keep chipping away

If you're referring to HD-109, it was Kemp+190 votes (+0.7%), Rutledge+828 votes (+3.08%). Definitely a tossup in 2020.

Mean the state house in general

Apparently 54.3-45.6 (R+8.7), at least if Wikipedia is to be believed.
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #26 on: June 25, 2019, 12:54:42 PM »

What do you think about Senate District 17? Brian Strickland won 54-46 in 2018. I guess how he'll do is dependent on if Abrams 2018 is the new Democratic floor in a high turnout general election. Not sure how Abrams did in this district.

I live in SD-17. I do think it can flip down the road with demographic changes, but as of now it's a bit too red for 2020. The problem for Dems is that the district takes in the entire southern half of Henry - including the blood-red bits in HD-109 and HD-110 - and the entire eastern half of Newton, a part that has precincts that vote GOP by northern-Forsyth County margins.

Since 2012, the margins for SD-17 have been:

- 2012: Jeffares (R)+25.6
- 2014: Jeffares unopposed
- 2016: Jeffares (R)+19.3
- (2018 special: Strickland (R)+27.6*)
- 2018: Strickland (R)+9.0

I'm ignoring the 2018 special because as with HD-111, HD-117, and HD-119, insanely low turnout can make things very misleading. I'd imagine that a contested 2020 race in SD-17 would look a lot like a redder version of HD-109 from last year: it will look closer than expected but still be a decent win for Strickland (probably a 4-point margin). Abrams probably lost SD-17 by high single digits.

The Dems should certainly try to play for SD-17, which they'll be doing anyway considering the Tossup nature of the (somewhat) overlapping HD-109, but I'll have to characterize the Senate district as Likely R for 2020.

Anyone know what the state house margin was? I know we’d have to win probably 60 % to flip it and the senate is worse so best we can do is keep chipping away

If you're referring to HD-109, it was Kemp+190 votes (+0.7%), Rutledge+828 votes (+3.08%). Definitely a tossup in 2020.

Mean the state house in general

Apparently 54.3-45.6 (R+8.7), at least if Wikipedia is to be believed.

Seems a little high to me but I guess some Indies in the metro ticket split.
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Continential
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« Reply #27 on: June 26, 2019, 11:27:10 AM »

Who is running for Lt. Governor in 2022.
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #28 on: June 30, 2019, 12:24:51 AM »

ACLU formally filed the lawsuit against the abortion bill Friday
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« Reply #29 on: July 08, 2019, 10:14:31 PM »

Fair Fight Action raised $3.9 million since the start of the year:

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/stacey-abrams-voting-rights-group-raises-million-six-months/JupQ020s8Uev9oz2eFOCuI/

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« Reply #30 on: July 10, 2019, 04:49:59 PM »

Quote
Senate Minority Leader Steve Henson, the only white male Democrat in the chamber, said Wednesday that he would not seek re-election to his suburban Atlanta seat in 2020.

Henson survived a primary scare in 2018, when he finished 111 votes ahead of an unknown Democratic challenger, Sabrina McKenzie.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/steve-henson-leader-senate-democrats-won-seek-election-2020/1gbMla3IiH3Flp1dsyQrBL/
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #31 on: July 10, 2019, 09:26:41 PM »

Quote
Senate Minority Leader Steve Henson, the only white male Democrat in the chamber, said Wednesday that he would not seek re-election to his suburban Atlanta seat in 2020.

Henson survived a primary scare in 2018, when he finished 111 votes ahead of an unknown Democratic challenger, Sabrina McKenzie.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/steve-henson-leader-senate-democrats-won-seek-election-2020/1gbMla3IiH3Flp1dsyQrBL/

He's the only white male D in the senate
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skbl17
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« Reply #32 on: July 15, 2019, 12:57:27 AM »

Some more Gwinnett news: the incumbent Republican Clerk of Superior Court, Richard Alexander, has apparently opted not to run for reelection.

With the longtime DA (Danny Porter) considering a party switch to run for reelection as a Democrat, and county commission chair Charlotte Nash not running for reelection, the Gwinnett GOP dumpster fire continues to grow. I would not be shocked if the Dems swept every partisan elected county position - district or countywide - up next year.

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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #33 on: July 15, 2019, 10:07:43 AM »

Some more Gwinnett news: the incumbent Republican Clerk of Superior Court, Richard Alexander, has apparently opted not to run for reelection.

With the longtime DA (Danny Porter) considering a party switch to run for reelection as a Democrat, and county commission chair Charlotte Nash not running for reelection, the Gwinnett GOP dumpster fire continues to grow. I would not be shocked if the Dems swept every partisan elected county position - district or countywide - up next year.



At least the Gwinnett GOP is self aware
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #34 on: July 15, 2019, 10:28:42 AM »

Some more Gwinnett news: the incumbent Republican Clerk of Superior Court, Richard Alexander, has apparently opted not to run for reelection.

With the longtime DA (Danny Porter) considering a party switch to run for reelection as a Democrat, and county commission chair Charlotte Nash not running for reelection, the Gwinnett GOP dumpster fire continues to grow. I would not be shocked if the Dems swept every partisan elected county position - district or countywide - up next year.



I’d be shocked if they didn’t sweep every spot. They did in 2018 and none of the countrywide races were even close.
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« Reply #35 on: July 18, 2019, 05:13:01 PM »

Can Abrams still ask for a recount or sue Gov. Kemp, months after the election?
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #36 on: July 20, 2019, 03:48:41 PM »

Can Abrams still ask for a recount or sue Gov. Kemp, months after the election?
No and she won't, she'll just continue to raise money from gullible idiots by pretending that the race was stolen from her
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« Reply #37 on: July 20, 2019, 04:08:19 PM »

Can Abrams still ask for a recount or sue Gov. Kemp, months after the election?
No and she won't, she'll just continue to raise money from gullible idiots by pretending that the race was stolen from her
Tell that to the federal judges who have permitted discovery to commence in their case against the GA Secretary of State's office for the malfeasance during the 2018 elections.
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #38 on: July 21, 2019, 02:54:29 PM »

Can Abrams still ask for a recount or sue Gov. Kemp, months after the election?
No and she won't, she'll just continue to raise money from gullible idiots by pretending that the race was stolen from her
Uhhh most of the legal action has landed on her side
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bronz4141
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« Reply #39 on: July 21, 2019, 03:34:19 PM »

Quote
Senate Minority Leader Steve Henson, the only white male Democrat in the chamber, said Wednesday that he would not seek re-election to his suburban Atlanta seat in 2020.

Henson survived a primary scare in 2018, when he finished 111 votes ahead of an unknown Democratic challenger, Sabrina McKenzie.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/steve-henson-leader-senate-democrats-won-seek-election-2020/1gbMla3IiH3Flp1dsyQrBL/

He's the only white male D in the senate

Yes, just like how John Barrow was the last white male Georgia Democrat in Congress, Henson is the last white male Democrat in the Georgia State Senate.
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henster
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« Reply #40 on: July 21, 2019, 06:23:30 PM »

Kemp's JA is apparently 61/37 according to SurveyMonkey outpacing Trump's 48/51 JA. I don't know what to make of it, but it appears Stacey Abrams election trutherism has fallen on deaf ears in GA.
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« Reply #41 on: July 21, 2019, 10:18:20 PM »

Kemp's JA is apparently 61/37 according to SurveyMonkey outpacing Trump's 48/51 JA. I don't know what to make of it, but it appears Stacey Abrams election trutherism has fallen on deaf ears in GA.
Simple. Those numbers are inaccurate. Anything else?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #42 on: July 21, 2019, 10:20:48 PM »

Kemp's JA is apparently 61/37 according to SurveyMonkey outpacing Trump's 48/51 JA. I don't know what to make of it, but it appears Stacey Abrams election trutherism has fallen on deaf ears in GA.
Simple. Those numbers are inaccurate. Anything else?

I mean it is survey monkey so the SAMPLE could be wrong but even with a weird sample its tough to get a specific sample that shows that many Kemp approves and Trump dissaprovers without it actually being true.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #43 on: July 21, 2019, 11:55:39 PM »

No way Kemp's approvals are that high, nor that 98% of Georgians even have an opinion on the Governor at present.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #44 on: July 22, 2019, 12:35:23 AM »

MC also found Kemp with a +20 approval, though there were far more undecided and they also had Trump at +3
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #45 on: July 22, 2019, 01:33:07 AM »

MC also found Kemp with a +20 approval, though there were far more undecided and they also had Trump at +3

I could see something like 50/30 or 45/25 (maybe even 55/35 given the legislature is out of session and Kemp hasn't been stepping in crap constantly); the margin might be accurate, but the overall share of support shown above definitely isn't at or above 60. Deal's approval numbers outside of the months preceding the 2014 election (and excluding the approval spike in the final year of his tenure) followed a similar trajectory.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #46 on: July 23, 2019, 08:13:13 AM »

Was reading about the plan to spend money on high-speed internet lines to rural GA and it got me wondering just how much of the state doesn't have access to broadband. According to the state's statistics, it's around 8% of the population - but the sheer geographic desert where broadband isn't available is pretty astounding.


Source: Georgia Broadband Deployment Initiative, https://broadband.georgia.gov

Hancock County (the blackest county in GA) has virtually no broadband access at all. As does most of the Black Belt in terms of geography. To be fair, though, this shows just how devoid of population most of GA's terrain is becoming in relative terms, given that:

Quote
Percent of Locations Unserved: 8%
Unserved Households: 334,259
Unserved Businesses: 13,710
Unserved Population: 765,739


Source: Georgia Broadband Deployment Initiative, https://broadband.georgia.gov
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skbl17
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« Reply #47 on: July 30, 2019, 04:02:28 AM »

The state has selected a new vendor to provide the new ballot-marking devices that will replace the old and antiquated DREs.

Election Systems & Software, the current vendor, lost out to Denver-based Dominion Voting. Unlike the current DREs, the new Windows 10-based system will print a ballot with the voters' choices once the voter selects their choices on the touchscreen. The printed ballot will contain the voter's choices marked similar to that of a scantron, but the ballot will also contain a barcode that the scanner will read. The paper ballots will be locked away in a ballot box for use in audits or recounts.

The new voting machines, paper ballots, and optical scanners will be rolled out to six counties for use in a pilot program this fall, before the entire state uses them in the March 24 presidential primary.

Personally, this news alleviates most of my concerns (the operating system used in the new machines, whether the printer would print a receipt or a full ballot, the cost of the contract, and the choice of vendor;) that said, I feel that there should be a parallel hand count of the printed ballot papers on election night to ensure that the totals from there line up with what is returned from the scanner reading the barcodes, instead of needing to wait for an audit to do so. Either that or make a full audit mandatory prior to a county certifying its results.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #48 on: August 06, 2019, 12:27:10 PM »

This may be a first: a losing candidate apologizes for running.

Quote
Republican Michael Williams, who finished last place in last year’s gubernatorial primary, said Tuesday he should never have sought higher office and blamed missed “red flags” for mistakes that led to a guilty plea on charges of filing a false report.

The former state senator said he should not have allowed his “public persona to be so drastically changed to something it wasn’t” during a controversial campaign that included a series of ill-fated publicity stunts capped by a “deportation bus tour.”

“I should have found a gubernatorial candidate whom I could support. I should have done what each of you did,” he wrote to supporters. “Instead, I allowed my pride, ego, and bad advice, to persuade me that I had a solid chance in the governor’s race.”

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/deportation-bus-candidate-apologizes-for-running-for-governor/5VcMZUyLBDEsieu53TEttJ/
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« Reply #49 on: August 07, 2019, 01:58:13 PM »

Many of you probably already know this story but it's been re-examined in a post-2018 election lens:

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