Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good chance for the Forsyth County GOP to make fools of themselves this Sunday:

After the Forsyth County Democratic Committee announced plans to welcome Stacey Abrams to a Sunday night barbecue dinner, the local GOP announced plans for protests with loaded language.

“This is a call to save and protect our neighborhoods, our communities and our county! The moment is at hand,” said a Forsyth County GOP flyer. “The designers of destructive radicalism and socialism are crossing over our county border and into Cumming this Sunday.”

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-outrage-after-gop-warns-stacey-abrams-is-crossing-border-for-visit/TK4SRTLELRG3LAC7DL3K35LLRQ/

Read the flyer shown in the article; the GOP is planning to picket the route and entrance to the venue.

They backed off, which is for the best:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1570931142899167232

[Adam Griffin]

Good chance for the Forsyth County GOP to make fools of themselves this Sunday:

After the Forsyth County Democratic Committee announced plans to welcome Stacey Abrams to a Sunday night barbecue dinner, the local GOP announced plans for protests with loaded language.

“This is a call to save and protect our neighborhoods, our communities and our county! The moment is at hand,” said a Forsyth County GOP flyer. “The designers of destructive radicalism and socialism are crossing over our county border and into Cumming this Sunday.”

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-outrage-after-gop-warns-stacey-abrams-is-crossing-border-for-visit/TK4SRTLELRG3LAC7DL3K35LLRQ/

Read the flyer shown in the article; the GOP is planning to picket the route and entrance to the venue.

They backed off, which is for the best:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1570931142899167232

Not hard to understand why. The parallels between that and what happened in Forsyth County in 1987 would have been too strong to ignore - even for them:

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1570790548700823555

Why would Raphael Warnock be popular with older, socially moderate Black voters? The reason escapes me.

In all seriousness that's very good news.

Why wouldn’t they? Even if they’re 60 they reminder the end of the civil rights movement and the start of integration. They know what racism in America looks like. Not to mention Warnock is a pastor and native lifelong Georgian who literally preaches at King’s church. My mom (not black) is in her late 50s and has memories of integration of schools and segregated movie theaters. You’re not gonna fool people by having a black man sing the same song as white supremacists

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1570790548700823555

Why would Raphael Warnock be popular with older, socially moderate Black voters? The reason escapes me.

In all seriousness that's very good news.

Why wouldn’t they? Even if they’re 60 they reminder the end of the civil rights movement and the start of integration. They know what racism in America looks like. Not to mention Warnock is a pastor and native lifelong Georgian who literally preaches at King’s church. My mom (not black) is in her late 50s and has memories of integration of schools and segregated movie theaters. You’re not gonna fool people by having a black man sing the same song as white supremacists

That was sarcastic. Obv Warnock will be popular with older Black folks.

[Spectator]

Just got my UOCAVA ballot. Voted all GOP except Dem for Senate, LG, and AG.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just got my UOCAVA ballot. Voted all GOP except Dem for Senate, LG, and AG.

Thanks, we'll take all the help we can get.

[patzer]

That makes me wonder how much of a chance there is of the lieutenant gubernatorial election going D while the gubernatorial election goes R...

[GeorgiaModerate]

538: How Black Americans Reshaped Politics In Georgia

This is a must-read for anyone interested in Georgia politics.

[Adam Griffin]

Federal judge (Obama appointee) for the Northern District of Georgia upholds Georgia election laws on all counts in 2018-19 case brought by Fair Fight/Abrams org

A federal judge delivered a decisive ruling Friday against allies of Democrat Stacey Abrams in their 4-year-old voting rights lawsuit, upholding Georgia election laws on all counts in the case Fair Fight Action filed days after the 2018 election.

U.S. District Judge Steve Jones’ judgment concludes the ambitious case against Georgia’s voter registration and absentee ballot practices after a trial in which voters testified about problems at the polls but few of them were unable to cast a ballot.

“Although Georgia’s election system is not perfect, the challenged practices violate neither the Constitution nor the VRA (Voting Rights Act),” Jones wrote in a 288-page order.

The decision followed what is believed to be the longest voting rights trial in the history of the Northern District of Georgia, lasting 21 days with testimony from over 50 witnesses, wrote Jones, a nominee of President Barack Obama.

Jones ruled against Fair Fight on claims over Georgia’s “exact match” voter registration policy, absentee ballot cancellation practices and registration inaccuracies.

[ProgressiveModerate]

538: How Black Americans Reshaped Politics In Georgia

This is a must-read for anyone interested in Georgia politics.

This is actually quite a good piece thank you for sharing.

Georgia is really special because I think it’s the first case where black voters can dominate a Dem primary but also Dems have the votes to realistically win statewide without extraordinary circumstances. Maryland comes close except you have tons of white liberals and Hispanics to the point where Black voters seem to be a large plurality in the dem primaries but not majority.

Georgia’s black population is also genuinely very diverse. You have rural black communities. Urban black communities. Both poor and wealthy pockets of black voters, especially in Atlanta. And a good scattering of black voters in suburbs often seen as mostly white. I think Georgia will be fascinating to watch cause I could def see 10 years down the road black Dems holding basically all statewide offices.

And unlike much of the southeast, the black population is actually growing, growing fast, but also expanding rapidly into new places. This def explains why long term Georgia is going to be such a problem for the gop until black voters end voting like 90-8 in favor of Dems.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia is really special because I think it’s the first case where black voters can dominate a Dem primary but also Dems have the votes to realistically win statewide without extraordinary circumstances. Maryland comes close except you have tons of white liberals and Hispanics to the point where Black voters seem to be a large plurality in the dem primaries but not majority.

For what it's worth, this period is coming to an end in GA as well. As late as 2014, roughly two-thirds of Democratic GE support came from black voters. Fast forward to 2018-2020, and this figure is now 55% and 53%, respectively.

It is a necessity for victory anytime soon, quite frankly. Black primary composition does remain elevated, to be fair (60% in 2018 and 56% in 2020; largely because more white voters live in places where it strategically makes since to vote in GOP primaries, and Black voters disproportionately live in places where DEM primaries are crucial), but given that white voters have went from 20-22% D support to 28-30% D support in just 4 years - and still comprise the better part of 60% of the electorate - even the current Black share of the D electorate is still on track for a continued decline (and to be clear, this 15-point-plus margin shift among white voters is the only reason why GA flipped when it did).

Unless augmented white D support collapses in the next 2-4 years in GA, I wouldn't be surprised to see Black voters be a strong plurality (i.e. something like 49%) for GA Democrats as early as the 2024 General Election. Additionally, huge increases in Latino and Asian turnout have and will continue to reduce the share of the Democratic coalition that is Black (given I can't see the white share of the vote continuing to become statistically more D anytime soon, this will likely be the biggest contributor over the next decade).

It's basically impossible anywhere on a statewide level to have a supermajority of your Democratic coalition 1) be Black and 2) achieve statewide victory in a general election. The closest and most feasible option remains to this day Mississippi. Even in DC - where whites and Blacks vote D at comparable levels, which is a completely freakish anomaly - you're not capable of seeing a winning Democratic electorate be really any more than 55-57% Black.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Are Dems going to pull the plug on Abrams the same way Rs are doing to Mastriano?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Are Dems going to pull the plug on Abrams the same way Rs are doing to Mastriano?

Hopefully, Abrams is the worst!

[2016]

If this happens TRUMP will be right and KEMP & Others will be wrong? Trump said over and over again that Trump Voters would not vote for Kemp after Perdue lost the Primary.

I am going to watch the Rual Vote in GA on E-Night!
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/results/georgia/governor

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Kemp loses, which I consider unlikely, it will not be because Trump voters failed to turn out, but rather due to a massive turnout overperformance of women and young voters in response to the Dobbs decision.  And if this occurs, no other Republican would conceivably have won; Kemp was their best possible candidate.

[2016]

If Kemp loses, which I consider unlikely, it will not be because Trump voters failed to turn out, but rather due to a massive turnout overperformance of women and young voters in response to the Dobbs decision.  And if this occurs, no other Republican would conceivably have won; Kemp was their best possible candidate.

I disagree. If you look at the recent Special Elections: It wasn't about Dobbs in NY-19. It was about Molinaro not getting the Turnout he needed in his Home Base while Ryan overperformed in his.

Republicans have a Turnout Problem when Trump is not on the Ballot. That's why Trump is going around the Country helping Republican Candidates.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Kemp loses, which I consider unlikely, it will not be because Trump voters failed to turn out, but rather due to a massive turnout overperformance of women and young voters in response to the Dobbs decision.  And if this occurs, no other Republican would conceivably have won; Kemp was their best possible candidate.

I disagree. If you look at the recent Special Elections: It wasn't about Dobbs in NY-19. It was about Molinaro not getting the Turnout he needed in his Home Base while Ryan overperformed in his.

Republicans have a Turnout Problem when Trump is not on the Ballot. That's why Trump is going around the Country helping Republican Candidates.

Perhaps so, but local Georgia Republicans don't seem to want Trump here:

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1576591151754199042

[Adam Griffin]

Probably has something to do with the fact that since the appearance of Trump, GA rocketed the better part of 10 points to the left. He's not an asset everywhere, despite what some insist.

[2016]

If Kemp loses, which I consider unlikely, it will not be because Trump voters failed to turn out, but rather due to a massive turnout overperformance of women and young voters in response to the Dobbs decision.  And if this occurs, no other Republican would conceivably have won; Kemp was their best possible candidate.

I disagree. If you look at the recent Special Elections: It wasn't about Dobbs in NY-19. It was about Molinaro not getting the Turnout he needed in his Home Base while Ryan overperformed in his.

Republicans have a Turnout Problem when Trump is not on the Ballot. That's why Trump is going around the Country helping Republican Candidates.

Perhaps so, but local Georgia Republicans don't seem to want Trump here:

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1576591151754199042

I will watch the Exit Polling very closely in GA and elsewhere regarding Trump and Biden Favorables.

If you look at Virginia last year those Voters who disliked BOTH, Trump and Biden voted by Youngkin by some decent margin.

That could easily happen in GA and other Statewide Races this November.

[2016]

Probably has something to do with the fact that since the appearance of Trump, GA rocketed the better part of 10 points to the left. He's not an asset everywhere, despite what some insist.

It very much depends where Trump goes. I certainly would not advice him to go into a big metro area but if he goes to the rual part of the State turning out the Vote I am all for that.

Last Night he was in Warren, Michigan (Macomb County). He won twice there in 2016 and 2020 and while Whitmer, Benson and Nessel are likely to be re-elected there is a very big Congressional Race in the County. If John James wins that then Republicans will likely get the House.

[Buzz]

Hopefully Trump doesn't come to GA, would not be a good thing.  Kemp will outperform him with ease.

[Calthrina950]

Hopefully Trump doesn't come to GA, would not be a good thing.  Kemp will outperform him with ease.

What would be your judgment of the races in Georgia at this point? Is a split outcome between Kemp and Warnock likely? And will Republicans sweep all of the statewide offices again?

[Buzz]

Governor is Lean R

Senate is pure toss up and probably going to a runoff

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I hope Warnock starts helping Abrams more if the abortion scandal wrecks Walker's campaign.

[skbl17]

Just on a side note, several black radio stations in Atlanta have organized a town hall tonight at Clark Atlanta University, an HBCU. Warnock, Abrams, and Kemp will all be there:

https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1577419687096635392