Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

I mean...obviously it's not the same as it was even 10 years ago, but the underestimation by many of how much the GOP still relies upon even the bluer parts of the metro is boggling. The rest of the state continues to become a greater share of the GOP's vote not because of growth, but simply because of sliding fortunes within the metro. Giving up on the metro is a long-term (or even short-term) losing strategy for them.

To illustrate, Trump still got 32% of his statewide vote from the counties below in blue (which Biden won nearly 2:1!), which comprise 45% of the state's population. It's not some dramatically huge difference between vote share and population share, in other words.

In fact, below shows three areas, each of which is responsible for one-third of Trump's 2020 vote (with a remainder of Muscogee County and Chatham County).

2020 GOP Vote Per Person (VAP):
Metro: 0.212
North: 0.442
South: 0.343

So yes, of course they need additional votes from elsewhere and the northern third of the state is the most logical choice based on support levels and population density (though voter participation is markedly lower south of the metro; to what degree prisons account for this I don't know, but the north has probably double the percentage of adults who are non-citizens).

However, if they continue to essentially abandon the metro, what they'll squeeze out from elsewhere may buy them a couple of years at most.

2020 Voter Participation (VAP):
Metro: 62.59%
North: 62.23%
South: 57.98%

2010-2020 VAP Change:
Metro: +19.1%
North: +16.1%
South: +6.3%

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ In fact, based on VAP growth alone over the past 10 years - coupled with 2020 margins of support - the GOP added 125k new voters in the metro area (versus 157k elsewhere). It's not even that big of a difference!

(Obviously what makes the difference margin-wise is that DEM only added half as many voters outside the metro as the GOP, while DEM added roughly twice as many as GOP in the metro - point still remains that close to half of new GOP voters added in the past decade still came from the counties in blue above)

[Adam Griffin]

Furthermore - and while I clearly understand how population growth works, that NE GA in particular is growing very rapidly, and that it will net GOP votes even if it slides a bit DEM - it's not as if they had their best performance in northern non-ATL GA in 2020/21 (though I do expect Abrams to bomb regionally just like she did in 2018):

[GeorgiaModerate]

From today's "The Jolt", the AJC's politics blog:

Abortion rights group NARAL Pro-Choice America released an analysis Wednesday of mail ballot request forms in Georgia that could give Democrats a new reason to be optimistic about November. The review was conducted by TargetSmart, the left-leaning data and polling firm.

Among the firm’s findings:

• Likely Democrats make up more than 62% of mail ballot requests, compared to this time in 2020, when voters modeled as Democrats made up about 48% of requests.
• More than 60% of mail ballot requests are from women voters.
• Black voters make up 37% of mail ballot requests compared to 26% at this time in 2018. Voters of color make up 43% of requests, up from 31% at this time in 2018
• More than 44,000 Black Georgians have requested mail ballots so far – four times the number of requests at this point in 2018.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-whats-at-stake-in-the-warnock-walker-debate/HWZOLTPWIZBXDOGBCBGBSWSDDM/

[Unelectable Bystander]

From today's "The Jolt", the AJC's politics blog:

Abortion rights group NARAL Pro-Choice America released an analysis Wednesday of mail ballot request forms in Georgia that could give Democrats a new reason to be optimistic about November. The review was conducted by TargetSmart, the left-leaning data and polling firm.

Among the firm’s findings:

• Likely Democrats make up more than 62% of mail ballot requests, compared to this time in 2020, when voters modeled as Democrats made up about 48% of requests.
• More than 60% of mail ballot requests are from women voters.
• Black voters make up 37% of mail ballot requests compared to 26% at this time in 2018. Voters of color make up 43% of requests, up from 31% at this time in 2018
• More than 44,000 Black Georgians have requested mail ballots so far – four times the number of requests at this point in 2018.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-whats-at-stake-in-the-warnock-walker-debate/HWZOLTPWIZBXDOGBCBGBSWSDDM/

I’m not discounting the possibility of that being real but can they compare to something more recent like the primaries? Every time we’ve seen mail in ballot data it’s looked awesome for democrats (even when it hasn’t been) because mail voting has become far more prevalent and republicans have turned against it for some reason.

Also, we should see how it changes over time because if Cohn’s theory is correct that the “do something” caucus loves to answer polls on the first ring, then they will certainly be voting at the earliest possible time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From today's "The Jolt", the AJC's politics blog:

Abortion rights group NARAL Pro-Choice America released an analysis Wednesday of mail ballot request forms in Georgia that could give Democrats a new reason to be optimistic about November. The review was conducted by TargetSmart, the left-leaning data and polling firm.

Among the firm’s findings:

• Likely Democrats make up more than 62% of mail ballot requests, compared to this time in 2020, when voters modeled as Democrats made up about 48% of requests.
• More than 60% of mail ballot requests are from women voters.
• Black voters make up 37% of mail ballot requests compared to 26% at this time in 2018. Voters of color make up 43% of requests, up from 31% at this time in 2018
• More than 44,000 Black Georgians have requested mail ballots so far – four times the number of requests at this point in 2018.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-whats-at-stake-in-the-warnock-walker-debate/HWZOLTPWIZBXDOGBCBGBSWSDDM/

I’m not discounting the possibility of that being real but can they compare to something more recent like the primaries? Every time we’ve seen mail in ballot data it’s looked awesome for democrats (even when it hasn’t been) because mail voting has become far more prevalent and republicans have turned against it for some reason.

Also, we should see how it changes over time because if Cohn’s theory is correct that the “do something” caucus loves to answer polls on the first ring, then they will certainly be voting at the earliest possible time.

You raise some valid points, but I don't think this year's primaries would be a valid comparision because all the competitive high-profile races were on the Republican side.

[wbrocks67]

Well I will say, I think one of the states where EV can be most constructive is Georgia. Both in 2020 and 2021, you could tell that the black vote was energized by their share of the EV.

[Unelectable Bystander]

From today's "The Jolt", the AJC's politics blog:

Abortion rights group NARAL Pro-Choice America released an analysis Wednesday of mail ballot request forms in Georgia that could give Democrats a new reason to be optimistic about November. The review was conducted by TargetSmart, the left-leaning data and polling firm.

Among the firm’s findings:

• Likely Democrats make up more than 62% of mail ballot requests, compared to this time in 2020, when voters modeled as Democrats made up about 48% of requests.
• More than 60% of mail ballot requests are from women voters.
• Black voters make up 37% of mail ballot requests compared to 26% at this time in 2018. Voters of color make up 43% of requests, up from 31% at this time in 2018
• More than 44,000 Black Georgians have requested mail ballots so far – four times the number of requests at this point in 2018.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-whats-at-stake-in-the-warnock-walker-debate/HWZOLTPWIZBXDOGBCBGBSWSDDM/

I’m not discounting the possibility of that being real but can they compare to something more recent like the primaries? Every time we’ve seen mail in ballot data it’s looked awesome for democrats (even when it hasn’t been) because mail voting has become far more prevalent and republicans have turned against it for some reason.

Also, we should see how it changes over time because if Cohn’s theory is correct that the “do something” caucus loves to answer polls on the first ring, then they will certainly be voting at the earliest possible time.

You raise some valid points, but I don't think this year's primaries would be a valid comparision because all the competitive high-profile races were on the Republican side.

For R vs D yes but I was thinking just based on demographics regardless of primary preference. You’re right though that would be flawed to the extent that democrats sat out the primary entirely but still plan on voting.

[Agafin]

Well I will say, I think one of the states where EV can be most constructive is Georgia. Both in 2020 and 2021, you could tell that the black vote was energized by their share of the EV.

Maybe I'm misremembering but was the black vote actually energized in 2020 (in Georgia)? I know it was energized in the runoff (2021) but the actual general election had standard or even slightly underwhelming share of the electorate that was black, no?

[Adam Griffin]

Looking at the ABM master file, it appears that one of the many grand changes GAGOP made with their election reform is restricting the window for ABM distribution. I wasn't previously aware of this.

Counties cannot mail out the ballots until October 10 (and for what it's worth, this is a state holiday). This basically makes the window for receiving and returning a mail ballot 3 weeks under normal elections (this year, there's an extra week more or less because the first Monday precedes the second Tuesday). In the past, most counties began mailing ballots at the beginning of September, for comparison. Pretty shady given you're probably looking at a week or more just in combined mail transit time - and god forbid someone's ballot gets lost.  

(For those curious, 126,275 mail ballot requests currently exist, with 124,597 being accepted. Also, approximately 750 seem to have already been mailed out according to listed mail date, and most don't appear to be UOCAVA - which even those aren't allowed to be transmitted until September 20. May just be a clerical issue).


Top 10 counties by requests, for those curious:



Looks like much more of a mixed bag than what TargetSmart et al are painting, IMO.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1570447074252197892

Is there a collective suicide pact among this year's Republican candidates?

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1570447074252197892

Is there a collective suicide pact among this year's Republican candidates?

Given that you are a Georgia resident, what are your perceptions of the gubernatorial and senatorial races right now? How is Abrams faring, and has she made up any ground?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1570447074252197892
Is there a collective suicide pact among this year's Republican candidates?

Given that you are a Georgia resident, what are your perceptions of the gubernatorial and senatorial races right now? How is Abrams faring, and has she made up any ground?

(Note: Edited OP because I had some D's and R's reversed.)

I think Abrams has certainly made up some ground following the Dobbs decision, as have many Democratic candidates across the nation.  After the May primary I had the gubernatorial race at Likely R.  Since Dobbs, Abrams has been hitting Kemp hard on abortion, and I moved it to Lean R with the expectation that Kemp would finish first in November, but there was a good chance of a runoff that would have an uncertain outcome.  Now?  If the above story gets real traction I would expect a close race with a very likely runoff.  It should be remembered that Abrams is very good at organizing new voters and turning out Democrats.  She's still behind, but has been gaining.

In the Senate, I think Warnock will finish first in November but a runoff is likely.  This view hasn't changed much except for minor fluctuations.  I've had it as Lean D the whole time.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1570447074252197892
Is there a collective suicide pact among this year's Republican candidates?

Given that you are a Georgia resident, what are your perceptions of the gubernatorial and senatorial races right now? How is Abrams faring, and has she made up any ground?

(Note: Edited OP because I had some D's and R's reversed.)

I think Abrams has certainly made up some ground following the Dobbs decision, as have many Democratic candidates across the nation.  After the May primary I had the gubernatorial race at Likely R.  Since Dobbs, Abrams has been hitting Kemp hard on abortion, and I moved it to Lean R with the expectation that Kemp would finish first in November, but there was a good chance of a runoff that would have an uncertain outcome.  Now?  If the above story gets real traction I would expect a close race with a very likely runoff.  It should be remembered that Abrams is very good at organizing new voters and turning out Democrats.  She's still behind, but has been gaining.

In the Senate, I think Warnock will finish first in November but a runoff is likely.  This view hasn't changed much except for minor fluctuations.  I've had it as Lean D the whole time.

I see. I've actually been of the view that Walker would finish first, but that he would lose the runoff to Warnock. But what you say is certainly possible. As for Abrams, it is true that she does know how to energize the Democratic base, and she has been credited with the state's recent turn to the Democrats on the federal level. But Abrams is herself a flawed candidate, and up to this point, her campaign this year had been lacking in enthusiasm. And Kemp certainly has gone farther to the right with regards to abortion than Georgia presently lies.

[Adam Griffin]

Still of the belief that Abrams will finish 1-3 points behind Warnock in final margin. All the polls showing him doing 6-10 points better than her earlier this year were ridiculous. Nevertheless, there has been a consistent pattern in favor of incumbency in GA this cycle (Kemp and Warnock). With that being said...

Abrams should hope that Warnock wins by at least 2 points and clears runoff territory - because if GA suddenly has to have two consecutive runoffs (remember that state runoffs are in December, and federal runoffs are in January), the concept of voter confusion and fatigue comes into play. Furthermore, I'm betting that if Warnock wins by less than 2 points - runoff or no - Kemp scores a narrow majority in November just like he did in 2018. If Warnock can win by 3-4 points, then there's a decent chance the electorate is favorable enough to drag Abrams across the 50% threshold barely (or perhaps force an exclusive state-level runoff where she comes in first in November by a small margin).

[skbl17]

Still of the belief that Abrams will finish 1-3 points behind Warnock in final margin. All the polls showing him doing 6-10 points better than her earlier this year were ridiculous. Nevertheless, there has been a consistent pattern in favor of incumbency in GA this cycle (Kemp and Warnock). With that being said...

Abrams should hope that Warnock wins by at least 2 points and clears runoff territory - because if GA suddenly has to have two consecutive runoffs (remember that state runoffs are in December, and federal runoffs are in January), the concept of voter confusion and fatigue comes into play. Furthermore, I'm betting that if Warnock wins by less than 2 points - runoff or no - Kemp scores a narrow majority in November just like he did in 2018. If Warnock can win by 3-4 points, then there's a decent chance the electorate is favorable enough to drag Abrams across the 50% threshold barely (or perhaps force an exclusive state-level runoff where she comes in first in November by a small margin).

Actually, one of the changes of that state voting law overhaul last year is that federal runoffs are now held in December, not January, so hypothetical Warnock/Walker and Kemp/Abrams runoffs would happen simultaneously.

In instances where no candidate receives a majority of the votes cast, a run-off primary, special primary runoff, run-off election, or special election runoff between the candidates receiving the two highest numbers of votes shall be held. Unless such date is postponed by a court order, such r̶u̶n̶-̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶,̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶,̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶-̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶,̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ runoff shall be held a̶s̶ ̶p̶r̶o̶v̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶s̶u̶b̶s̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶.̶ ̶

(̶2̶)̶ ̶I̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶a̶s̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶j̶u̶n̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶s̶h̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶T̶u̶e̶s̶d̶a̶y̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶n̶i̶n̶t̶h̶ ̶w̶e̶e̶k̶ ̶f̶o̶l̶l̶o̶w̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶s̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶.̶

(̶3̶)̶ ̶I̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶a̶s̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶d̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶d̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶j̶u̶n̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶s̶h̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶T̶u̶e̶s̶d̶a̶y̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶n̶i̶n̶t̶h̶ ̶w̶e̶e̶k̶ ̶f̶o̶l̶l̶o̶w̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶s̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶.̶

(̶4̶)̶ ̶I̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶a̶s̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶n̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶o̶t̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶d̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶n̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶o̶t̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶d̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶j̶u̶n̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶s̶h̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ on the twenty-eighth day after the day of holding the preceding general or special primary or general or special election.

[Adam Griffin]

Still of the belief that Abrams will finish 1-3 points behind Warnock in final margin. All the polls showing him doing 6-10 points better than her earlier this year were ridiculous. Nevertheless, there has been a consistent pattern in favor of incumbency in GA this cycle (Kemp and Warnock). With that being said...

Abrams should hope that Warnock wins by at least 2 points and clears runoff territory - because if GA suddenly has to have two consecutive runoffs (remember that state runoffs are in December, and federal runoffs are in January), the concept of voter confusion and fatigue comes into play. Furthermore, I'm betting that if Warnock wins by less than 2 points - runoff or no - Kemp scores a narrow majority in November just like he did in 2018. If Warnock can win by 3-4 points, then there's a decent chance the electorate is favorable enough to drag Abrams across the 50% threshold barely (or perhaps force an exclusive state-level runoff where she comes in first in November by a small margin).

Actually, one of the changes of that state voting law overhaul last year is that federal runoffs are now held in December, not January, so hypothetical Warnock/Walker and Kemp/Abrams runoffs would happen simultaneously.

In instances where no candidate receives a majority of the votes cast, a run-off primary, special primary runoff, run-off election, or special election runoff between the candidates receiving the two highest numbers of votes shall be held. Unless such date is postponed by a court order, such r̶u̶n̶-̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶,̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶,̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶-̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶,̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ runoff shall be held a̶s̶ ̶p̶r̶o̶v̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶s̶ ̶s̶u̶b̶s̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶.̶ ̶

(̶2̶)̶ ̶I̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶a̶s̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶j̶u̶n̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶s̶h̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶T̶u̶e̶s̶d̶a̶y̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶n̶i̶n̶t̶h̶ ̶w̶e̶e̶k̶ ̶f̶o̶l̶l̶o̶w̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶s̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶.̶

(̶3̶)̶ ̶I̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶a̶s̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶d̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶d̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶j̶u̶n̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶s̶h̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶o̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶T̶u̶e̶s̶d̶a̶y̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶n̶i̶n̶t̶h̶ ̶w̶e̶e̶k̶ ̶f̶o̶l̶l̶o̶w̶i̶n̶g̶ ̶s̶u̶c̶h̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶.̶

(̶4̶)̶ ̶I̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶c̶a̶s̶e̶ ̶o̶f̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶n̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶o̶t̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶d̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶f̶r̶o̶m̶ ̶a̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶p̶r̶i̶m̶a̶r̶y̶ ̶o̶r̶ ̶s̶p̶e̶c̶i̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶f̶o̶r̶ ̶a̶n̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶o̶t̶h̶e̶r̶ ̶t̶h̶a̶n̶ ̶a̶ ̶f̶e̶d̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶o̶f̶f̶i̶c̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶c̶o̶n̶j̶u̶n̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶ ̶w̶i̶t̶h̶ ̶a̶ ̶g̶e̶n̶e̶r̶a̶l̶ ̶e̶l̶e̶c̶t̶i̶o̶n̶,̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶r̶u̶n̶o̶f̶f̶ ̶s̶h̶a̶l̶l̶ ̶b̶e̶ ̶h̶e̶l̶d̶ on the twenty-eighth day after the day of holding the preceding general or special primary or general or special election.

Oh, Glorious News!

Yes, I'm still learning about all the smaller changes since I'm no longer an elected party official post-2021. Just figured out a day or two ago that they restricted ABM mailing to no earlier than October 10 for non-UOCAVA, as another example.

[Adam Griffin]

Publishing this here just because of some data-digging I did from the latest QPac GA-SEN poll thread: hoping not to lose it for comparison's sake in the coming weeks.

2020 RV Turnout
White    72.62%
Asian   64.63%
Black    59.97%
Latino    55.37%
Other    52.40%

TOTAL   65.74%

2018 RV Turnout
White   62.18%
Black   53.89%
Asian   44.42%
Latino   43.18%
Other   41.03%

TOTAL   56.36%

[wbrocks67]

Well, that audio certainly provides Abrams with another opening.

[Adam Griffin]

Personally, consider me skeptical about the Dobbs effect in GA compared to the ways that it is likely to impact other states. We could see a surge in presidential voters in GA who didn't vote in 2018 and wouldn't have in 2022 otherwise (particularly on the D side - which may be enough, mind you!), but combine this with AVR and you're not likely to see some huge shift in new registrations and the like that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

Also, obligatory "average D support for abortion in GA is lower than D support nationally (i.e. correlation to black vote share)" & "probably just about any defection-capable R voter already budged in 2018 and/or 2020; if Abrams was hanging onto all of them, Kemp would already be behind in polling in this celebrated post-Dobbs environment etc". In other words, don't project overwhelmingly white D electoral behavior onto substantially minority D voting behavior.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Personally, consider me skeptical about the Dobbs effect in GA compared to the ways that it is likely to impact other states. We could see a surge in presidential voters in GA who didn't vote in 2018 and wouldn't have in 2022 otherwise (particularly on the D side - which may be enough, mind you!), but combine this with AVR and you're not likely to see some huge shift in new registrations and the like that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

Also, obligatory "average D support for abortion in GA is lower than D support nationally (i.e. correlation to black vote share)" & "probably just about any defection-capable R voter already budged in 2018 and/or 2020; if Abrams was hanging onto all of them, Kemp would already be behind in polling in this celebrated post-Dobbs environment etc". In other words, don't project overwhelmingly white D electoral behavior onto substantially minority D voting behavior.

Yes, but Abrams has the Black vote, and if she doesn't, Warnock is insanely popular with the socially moderate more religious crowd.

Also, contraception is much different than abortion.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good chance for the Forsyth County GOP to make fools of themselves this Sunday:

After the Forsyth County Democratic Committee announced plans to welcome Stacey Abrams to a Sunday night barbecue dinner, the local GOP announced plans for protests with loaded language.

“This is a call to save and protect our neighborhoods, our communities and our county! The moment is at hand,” said a Forsyth County GOP flyer. “The designers of destructive radicalism and socialism are crossing over our county border and into Cumming this Sunday.”

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-outrage-after-gop-warns-stacey-abrams-is-crossing-border-for-visit/TK4SRTLELRG3LAC7DL3K35LLRQ/

Read the flyer shown in the article; the GOP is planning to picket the route and entrance to the venue.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1570790548700823555

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1570790548700823555

Why would Raphael Warnock be popular with older, socially moderate Black voters? The reason escapes me.

In all seriousness that's very good news.

[Spectator]

Still of the belief that Abrams will finish 1-3 points behind Warnock in final margin. All the polls showing him doing 6-10 points better than her earlier this year were ridiculous. Nevertheless, there has been a consistent pattern in favor of incumbency in GA this cycle (Kemp and Warnock). With that being said...

Abrams should hope that Warnock wins by at least 2 points and clears runoff territory - because if GA suddenly has to have two consecutive runoffs (remember that state runoffs are in December, and federal runoffs are in January), the concept of voter confusion and fatigue comes into play. Furthermore, I'm betting that if Warnock wins by less than 2 points - runoff or no - Kemp scores a narrow majority in November just like he did in 2018. If Warnock can win by 3-4 points, then there's a decent chance the electorate is favorable enough to drag Abrams across the 50% threshold barely (or perhaps force an exclusive state-level runoff where she comes in first in November by a small margin).

Agreed, I always thought the idea of the Senate and Governors races having as wide a gulf between them as polls have indicated is not what’s likely at all to happen in the end. I do think Warnock will do a bit better than Abrams, but only in the realm of 1-3 points like you suggested. There simply aren’t many people in Georgia that are willing to split their votes. The biggest gap we got in 2018 for example was only about 5 points of a gulf between the SOS margin and the Agriculture Commish race.