Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

Cinyc compiled a map of population changes in every municipality and county since 2010, which you can find here. It's customizable, meaning you can change the scale/steps to make colors more or less intense based on growth/loss.

Anyway, here's Georgia:

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Georgia poll: AJC/UGA, Jan. 6-15, 1025 RV

NOTE: beginning with this poll, UGA is now weighting by education (previously it was weighting only by race, age, and sex).  As such, this poll result is not comparable to previous AJC/UGA polls.

Trump job approval 51/48 (strongly: 35/42)

2020: Plan to vote for Trump 44, against him 47

Has Trump committed an impeachable offense? Yes 45, No 50

Regarding removal, I don't like the way this question is framed: "At the end of the impeachment process, what do you think should happen to President Trump? Should he be removed from office by the Senate, or should the voters be allowed to decide his fate in the 2020 election?"

Remove Trump 38, voters decide 58

Favorability numbers:

Donald Trump 47/50
Brian Kemp 55/35 (Kemp job approval: 60/31)
David Perdue 52/30 (Perdue job approval: 51/28)
Kelly Loeffler 23/20
Doug Collins 35/18

Joe Biden 35/57
Bernie Sanders 36/58
Elizabeth Warren 31/55
Pete Buttigieg 22/49

I'm glad they've started weighting by education, but these numbers seem a little too R-friendly to me.

[Bidenworth2020]

New Georgia poll: AJC/UGA, Jan. 6-15, 1025 RV

NOTE: beginning with this poll, UGA is now weighting by education (previously it was weighting only by race, age, and sex).  As such, this poll result is not comparable to previous AJC/UGA polls.

Trump job approval 51/48 (strongly: 35/42)

2020: Plan to vote for Trump 44, against him 47

Has Trump committed an impeachable offense? Yes 45, No 50

Regarding removal, I don't like the way this question is framed: "At the end of the impeachment process, what do you think should happen to President Trump? Should he be removed from office by the Senate, or should the voters be allowed to decide his fate in the 2020 election?"

Remove Trump 38, voters decide 58

Favorability numbers:

Donald Trump 47/50
Brian Kemp 55/35 (Kemp job approval: 60/31)
David Perdue 52/30 (Perdue job approval: 51/28)
Kelly Loeffler 23/20
Doug Collins 35/18

Joe Biden 35/57
Bernie Sanders 36/58
Elizabeth Warren 31/55
Pete Buttigieg 22/49

I'm glad they've started weighting by education, but these numbers seem a little too R-friendly to me.

I sincerely doubt that a quarter of blacks disapprove of Joe Biden, or that a fifth of blacks approve of Doug Collins when only 29% dissaprove.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'm glad they've started weighting by education, but these numbers seem a little too R-friendly to me.

Same.

[QAnonKelly]

Our illustrious “governor” was supposed to sit for a deposition over a 2014 voting case in Gwinnett by Jan 10. Wonder when we’ll hear something out of it.

[Adam Griffin]

As of last night, 17,337 ballots have been requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown is:

55.4% Democratic
42.2% Republican
1.4% Non-Partisan
1.0% Unknown

Not sure why there are so relatively many without a party listed (i.e. the unknowns) and the poor suckers who requested a non-partisan ballot won't have anything to vote on unless there are referendums or special elections in their counties. The 55-42 ratio might look good, but given that there isn't anything on the GOP ballot other than Trump (and/or those special elections in some counties), not very impressive.

[Adam Griffin]

As of last night, 20,586 ballots have been requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown is:

54.3% Democratic
43.3% Republican
1.4% Non-Partisan
1.0% Unknown

[Adam Griffin]

As of last night, 23,088 ballots have been requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown is:

54.2% Democratic
43.3% Republican
1.4% Non-Partisan
1.1% Unknown

[QAnonKelly]

I’m guessing the people who request early ballots skew black?

[Adam Griffin]

I’m guessing the people who request early ballots skew black?

I don't have any racial data available statewide, but this early batch I imagine (I hope?) skews somewhat older and whiter. Historically mail ballots were more GOP than the state as a whole, but 2016 and 2018 changed that trend (though if I'm recalling correctly from 2018, the initial round started off very GOP, but became much more DEM as time progressed; Abrams mail campaign).

If Republicans are only down by 12 in a presidential primary with nothing else on their ballot and no contested GOP primary - and this is reflective of the final ballot composition - then I think that's a really bad sign for the general. We saw a similar situation in NH, but the GOP overperformance was far less. It basically indicates that either the Trump campaign is really organized and turning out voters just for a show of force, or these people are so fired up that they're doing it on their own.

*Note: it's possible there are a lot of special elections, SPLOSTs, etc going on around the state and that could be driving some of it, but definitely not all unless all the big counties have issues on the ballot

[QAnonKelly]

Yeah I’m really interested to see the raw difference between D & R in the primary.

[Adam Griffin]

As of last night, 24,873 ballots have been requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown is:

13582   54.61% Democratic
10685    42.96% Republican
357        1.44% Non-Partisan
249        0.99% Unknown

[QAnonKelly]

Wow so it's only getting more D? Hopefully this is a good sign.

[Adam Griffin]

As of today, 26,496 ballots have been requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown is:

14591   55.07% Democratic
11256    42.48% Republican
384        1.45% Non-Partisan
265        1.00% Unknown

[Adam Griffin]

As of today, 27,754 ballots have been requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown is:

14591   55.30% Democratic
11256    42.10% Republican
384        1.48% Non-Partisan
265        1.12% Unknown

[QAnonKelly]

https://www.instagram.com/dekalb_gop/

TIL that the DeKalb GOP has an instagram account. It's about as serious as one would expect the GOP in an 80% democratic county to be.

[Frodo]

Cinyc compiled a map of population changes in every municipality and county since 2010, which you can find here. It's customizable, meaning you can change the scale/steps to make colors more or less intense based on growth/loss.

Anyway, here's Georgia:

If we were to use pre-2008 Virginia as an analogy, the Atlanta area is comparable to the Northern Virginia suburbs, and Savannah is like Richmond and its suburbs (as well as Norfolk/Hampton Roads) all wrapped together.  

[Mr. Smith]

Cinyc compiled a map of population changes in every municipality and county since 2010, which you can find here. It's customizable, meaning you can change the scale/steps to make colors more or less intense based on growth/loss.

Anyway, here's Georgia:

If we were to use pre-2008 Virginia as an analogy, the Atlanta area is comparable to the Northern Virginia suburbs, and Savannah is like Richmond and its suburbs (as well as Norfolk/Hampton Roads) all wrapped together.  

I suppose that makes Athens like C-Ville or Lexington? Columbus like Roanoke then?

[Adam Griffin]

As of today, 32,783 ballots have been requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown is:

18506   56.45% Democratic
13445    41.01% Republican
461        1.41% Non-Partisan
371        1.13% Unknown

[QAnonKelly]

As of today, 32,783 ballots have been requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown is:

18506   56.45% Democratic
13445    41.01% Republican
461        1.41% Non-Partisan
371        1.13% Unknown

Damn, is any recent election this D skewing for early ballots?

[Adam Griffin]

Damn, is any recent election this D skewing for early ballots?

No, but there hasn't really been an opportunity: 2004 was the last cycle where these conditions (no contested GOP primary) existed, and Democrats were collapsing statewide hard by then. Also, mail voting was much less common then - I'm not even sure if no-excuse mail voting was available in '04?

Personally, I'm still not impressed with these numbers (and likely won't be until/unless the D share is >70%). If Democrats can't get at least 2 people to show up in a contested presidential primary for every 1 person who shows up to solely rubberstamp Trump in his coronation, then we've likely got big problems.


As of 2/26, 36,382 ballots have been requested for the March 24th presidential primary (11,730 have been returned). Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

20698   56.89% Democratic
14729    40.48% Republican
525        1.44% Non-Partisan
430        1.19% Unknown

60.9% of ballot requests received yesterday were Democratic; 35.7% Republican.

BTW: the "Unknown" category is mostly ballots that have either been rejected or are currently not being issued due to a problem with the application (the overwhelming majority of these are people who didn't check which party's primary ballot they wanted on the application).

[Adam Griffin]

As of today (2/27), 38,014 ballots have been requested for the March 24th presidential primary (12,885 have been returned). Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

21764   57.25% Democratic
15233    40.07% Republican
545        1.43% Non-Partisan
472        1.25% Unknown

65.3% of ballot requests received today were Democratic; 30.9% Republican.

[Adam Griffin]

As of today (2/28), 39,410 ballots have been requested for the March 24th presidential primary (14,199 have been returned). Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

22599   57.34% Democratic
15763    40.00% Republican
563        1.43% Non-Partisan
485        1.23% Unknown

59.8% of ballot requests received today were Democratic; 38.0% Republican. Looks like the GOP will cling to the 40% threshold for another day or two.

Early in-person voting begins Monday.

[Adam Griffin]

Not much of a change (since it's Saturday; GOP drops below 40 for the first time, though).

As of today (2/29), 39,648 ballots have been requested for the March 24th presidential primary (14,387 have been returned). Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

22741   57.36% Democratic
15849   39.97% Republican
570        1.44% Non-Partisan
488        1.23% Unknown

[Adam Griffin]

First day of early in-person voting today: 20,002 ballots were cast (in-person) or requested (by mail) today.

As of today (3/2), 59,650 ballots have been cast or requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

35123   58.88% Democratic
23332    39.11% Republican
680        1.14% Non-Partisan
512        0.86% Unknown

61.9% of ballots cast or requested today were Democratic; 37.4% were Republican.