Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[wbrocks67]

This is probably the worst state to compare partisan turnout to each other considering what many have said in this thread - that many Dems are crossing over to vote R.

That being said, I'm surprised it's even 43% D, which suggests GA is continuing its evolution.

This is insanity. Turnout is hard to compare in this state but we are going to do it anyways to show that an R advantage is actually a sign of a D trend? I also expect Georgia to continue evolving but it won’t be because of this lol

Also, the Election Day vs early voting is so lopsided that it’s shocking R’s could lead anywhere in early voting. Any potential surge won’t be recognized until tomorrow

You're misreading what people are saying. With so many crossover D voters, you'd expect actual D votes to be way less than 43%, even in early vote. So just saying that the fact that it's even that high all things compared is not bad at all for Ds.

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/hotlinejosh/status/1528360027605585920?s=21&t=5V2FPS9jLY...

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm shocked. How are so many people able to vote early in this Jim Crow 2.0 era?

[President Johnson]

Are there any reliable projections for the Secretary of State primary? I haven't seen any recent polls. If Kemp is poised to win big, does Raffensberger survive as well?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Are there any reliable projections for the Secretary of State primary? I haven't seen any recent polls. If Kemp is poised to win big, does Raffensberger survive as well?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Georgia_Secretary_of_State_election#Graphical_summary

Looks like the polling is very tight

[President Johnson]

Are there any reliable projections for the Secretary of State primary? I haven't seen any recent polls. If Kemp is poised to win big, does Raffensberger survive as well?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Georgia_Secretary_of_State_election#Graphical_summary

Looks like the polling is very tight

Probably goes to a runoff then. I hope Raffensberger hangs on. He just did his job in 2020. It's an embarrassment the guy's life is in danger because of it.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Are there any reliable projections for the Secretary of State primary? I haven't seen any recent polls. If Kemp is poised to win big, does Raffensberger survive as well?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Georgia_Secretary_of_State_election#Graphical_summary

Looks like the polling is very tight

Probably goes to a runoff then. I hope Raffensberger hangs on. He just did his job in 2020. It's an embarrassment the guy's life is in danger because of it.

Same in GA this is what my ballot would be like:


Senate: Walker
Governor: Kemp
Secretary of State: Raffensberger

Not really following the other races so dont know about the rest

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker is another Elder he supports Leader McConnell for Majority Leader and the Rs Filibuster the Voting Rights to give Rs an unfair advantage I'm the Election, the Rs are cheating to win this Election

They're not winning this Election fair and square the SCOTUS already made Gerrymandering legal in 2017.
.
WARNOCK is leading 50/45
Kemp is leading 50/45

Rs think that we supposed to forget they Filibuster Voting Rights

[Adam Griffin]

For everyone speculating about crossover participation, we actually have data from last week on this (I'm doubtful the proportions changed all that much since).

AJC election guru Mark Niesse crunched the numbers and determined about 7% of Georgia voters who have cast GOP ballots so far previously pulled a Democratic ballot two years ago.

State election figures show smaller numbers of Republican voters from 2020 are voting in the Democratic primary this year. Less than 1% of Democratic voters participated in the 2020 GOP primary.

This would be enough to shift the 56.6-43.4 composition to roughly 53-47. 

[Unelectable Bystander]

For everyone speculating about crossover participation, we actually have data from last week on this (I'm doubtful the proportions changed all that much since).

AJC election guru Mark Niesse crunched the numbers and determined about 7% of Georgia voters who have cast GOP ballots so far previously pulled a Democratic ballot two years ago.

State election figures show smaller numbers of Republican voters from 2020 are voting in the Democratic primary this year. Less than 1% of Democratic voters participated in the 2020 GOP primary.

This would be enough to shift the 56.6-43.4 composition to roughly 53-47. 

So it’s not like 35% of democrats joining the GOP primary like some on here would say lol.

I would argue that a small portion of these crossovers could be legitimate swing voters who happened to change their voting preference recently. Even assuming that’s not the case, 53-47 early vote means that the GOP will run away with the majority of primary votes

[GeorgiaModerate]

For everyone speculating about crossover participation, we actually have data from last week on this (I'm doubtful the proportions changed all that much since).

AJC election guru Mark Niesse crunched the numbers and determined about 7% of Georgia voters who have cast GOP ballots so far previously pulled a Democratic ballot two years ago.

State election figures show smaller numbers of Republican voters from 2020 are voting in the Democratic primary this year. Less than 1% of Democratic voters participated in the 2020 GOP primary.

This would be enough to shift the 56.6-43.4 composition to roughly 53-47. 

So it’s not like 35% of democrats joining the GOP primary like some on here would say lol.

I would argue that a small portion of these crossovers could be legitimate swing voters who happened to change their voting preference recently. Even assuming that’s not the case, 53-47 early vote means that the GOP will run away with the majority of primary votes

Probably more Democratic voters just stayed home because the D primary is uninteresting at the top.  At least that's the case in the admittedly tiny sample of my nearest family members; out of four solid D voters, I was the only one to vote in the primary (crossing over).  The other three all thought it wasn't worth the trouble.  But all four of us are certain D votes in November.

[Unelectable Bystander]

For everyone speculating about crossover participation, we actually have data from last week on this (I'm doubtful the proportions changed all that much since).

AJC election guru Mark Niesse crunched the numbers and determined about 7% of Georgia voters who have cast GOP ballots so far previously pulled a Democratic ballot two years ago.

State election figures show smaller numbers of Republican voters from 2020 are voting in the Democratic primary this year. Less than 1% of Democratic voters participated in the 2020 GOP primary.

This would be enough to shift the 56.6-43.4 composition to roughly 53-47. 

So it’s not like 35% of democrats joining the GOP primary like some on here would say lol.

I would argue that a small portion of these crossovers could be legitimate swing voters who happened to change their voting preference recently. Even assuming that’s not the case, 53-47 early vote means that the GOP will run away with the majority of primary votes

Probably more Democratic voters just stayed home because the D primary is uninteresting at the top.  At least that's the case in the admittedly tiny sample of my nearest family members; out of four solid D voters, I was the only one to vote in the primary (crossing over).  The other three all thought it wasn't worth the trouble.  But all four of us are certain D votes in November.

I’m going to assume your family has much higher engagement than average, but noted possibility

[GeorgiaModerate]

For everyone speculating about crossover participation, we actually have data from last week on this (I'm doubtful the proportions changed all that much since).

AJC election guru Mark Niesse crunched the numbers and determined about 7% of Georgia voters who have cast GOP ballots so far previously pulled a Democratic ballot two years ago.

State election figures show smaller numbers of Republican voters from 2020 are voting in the Democratic primary this year. Less than 1% of Democratic voters participated in the 2020 GOP primary.

This would be enough to shift the 56.6-43.4 composition to roughly 53-47. 

So it’s not like 35% of democrats joining the GOP primary like some on here would say lol.

I would argue that a small portion of these crossovers could be legitimate swing voters who happened to change their voting preference recently. Even assuming that’s not the case, 53-47 early vote means that the GOP will run away with the majority of primary votes

Probably more Democratic voters just stayed home because the D primary is uninteresting at the top.  At least that's the case in the admittedly tiny sample of my nearest family members; out of four solid D voters, I was the only one to vote in the primary (crossing over).  The other three all thought it wasn't worth the trouble.  But all four of us are certain D votes in November.

I’m going to assume your family has much higher engagement than average, but noted possibility

That's probably a fair assumption.  Most of us are quite politically aware and engaged, though not all.

[Adam Griffin]

For everyone speculating about crossover participation, we actually have data from last week on this (I'm doubtful the proportions changed all that much since).

AJC election guru Mark Niesse crunched the numbers and determined about 7% of Georgia voters who have cast GOP ballots so far previously pulled a Democratic ballot two years ago.

State election figures show smaller numbers of Republican voters from 2020 are voting in the Democratic primary this year. Less than 1% of Democratic voters participated in the 2020 GOP primary.

This would be enough to shift the 56.6-43.4 composition to roughly 53-47.  

So it’s not like 35% of democrats joining the GOP primary like some on here would say lol.

For what it's worth, this actually happens in heavily-R counties (65-80% R) in GA in virtually every primary: 15-20% of R primary voters are actually general election Democrats because there is either no action on the D side and/or lots of reliable-D voters cast ballots in the GOP primary in order to say who will be their local or statewide elected officials in the upcoming term (much more so in the former case; lots of county-level Republicans are elected by the grace of Democrats crashing the primaries and choosing the least-crazy of options).

As someone who spent a decade organizing in one of these counties, it is a very irritating concept in terms of being able to identify actual Democratic voters; around one-third of Democrats in my county on average pull GOP primary ballots for such reasons in an average year. You can usually decipher who's who based on presidential primary choices (which are separate in GA from state/local primaries), but it's an extra step and can sometimes be thrown off by people who have actually defected.

From the internal data I've seen, I would also argue that since circa 2006, there have always been more Georgia Democrats voting in GOP primaries statewide than vice-versa (2020 is the lone exception).  

[MillennialModerate]

For everyone speculating about crossover participation, we actually have data from last week on this (I'm doubtful the proportions changed all that much since).

AJC election guru Mark Niesse crunched the numbers and determined about 7% of Georgia voters who have cast GOP ballots so far previously pulled a Democratic ballot two years ago.

State election figures show smaller numbers of Republican voters from 2020 are voting in the Democratic primary this year. Less than 1% of Democratic voters participated in the 2020 GOP primary.

This would be enough to shift the 56.6-43.4 composition to roughly 53-47. 

I literally have no clue which party is the 56.6 (or 53) and which one is the 43.4/47

We really need a uniform color code on this site.

It’s time to make the switch - blue for Dems, Red for Repubs.

[MillennialModerate]

I would love Rafensberger to win but I doubt it

[Adam Griffin]

For everyone speculating about crossover participation, we actually have data from last week on this (I'm doubtful the proportions changed all that much since).

AJC election guru Mark Niesse crunched the numbers and determined about 7% of Georgia voters who have cast GOP ballots so far previously pulled a Democratic ballot two years ago.

State election figures show smaller numbers of Republican voters from 2020 are voting in the Democratic primary this year. Less than 1% of Democratic voters participated in the 2020 GOP primary.

This would be enough to shift the 56.6-43.4 composition to roughly 53-47.  

I literally have no clue which party is the 56.6 (or 53) and which one is the 43.4/47

We really need a uniform color code on this site.

It’s time to make the switch - blue for Dems, Red for Repubs.

I think context is pretty important: is this really a year where Democrats would be getting 56% of primary voters in Georgia? The AJC quote figures also more or less tell you which group is which. Previous page has the color scheme identified as well, for what it's worth.

Other than a handful of stubborns, most people use the color scheme of the website for text and custom media; outside images and maps obviously can't be controlled.

[Buzz]

Just got done voting in Cobb.  Lines were not bad.  Was interviewed by WSB outside lol

[wbrocks67]

For everyone speculating about crossover participation, we actually have data from last week on this (I'm doubtful the proportions changed all that much since).

AJC election guru Mark Niesse crunched the numbers and determined about 7% of Georgia voters who have cast GOP ballots so far previously pulled a Democratic ballot two years ago.

State election figures show smaller numbers of Republican voters from 2020 are voting in the Democratic primary this year. Less than 1% of Democratic voters participated in the 2020 GOP primary.

This would be enough to shift the 56.6-43.4 composition to roughly 53-47. 

So it’s not like 35% of democrats joining the GOP primary like some on here would say lol.

I would argue that a small portion of these crossovers could be legitimate swing voters who happened to change their voting preference recently. Even assuming that’s not the case, 53-47 early vote means that the GOP will run away with the majority of primary votes

Nobody was acting as if it was 35%. But 7% is substantial, considering a 53-47 early vote is even less than the R/D EV composition in 2018.

[Agafin]

For everyone speculating about crossover participation, we actually have data from last week on this (I'm doubtful the proportions changed all that much since).

AJC election guru Mark Niesse crunched the numbers and determined about 7% of Georgia voters who have cast GOP ballots so far previously pulled a Democratic ballot two years ago.

State election figures show smaller numbers of Republican voters from 2020 are voting in the Democratic primary this year. Less than 1% of Democratic voters participated in the 2020 GOP primary.

This would be enough to shift the 56.6-43.4 composition to roughly 53-47. 

So it’s not like 35% of democrats joining the GOP primary like some on here would say lol.

I would argue that a small portion of these crossovers could be legitimate swing voters who happened to change their voting preference recently. Even assuming that’s not the case, 53-47 early vote means that the GOP will run away with the majority of primary votes

Nobody was acting as if it was 35%. But 7% is substantial, considering a 53-47 early vote is even less than the R/D EV composition in 2018.

2018 is like a lifetime away when it comes to early voting since that was prior to Trump's demonization of mail-in voting. I'd say these results are incomparable with the previous ones and we just have to wait for the final turnout to make comparisons.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1529115917766037504

[Adam Griffin]

For everyone speculating about crossover participation, we actually have data from last week on this (I'm doubtful the proportions changed all that much since).

AJC election guru Mark Niesse crunched the numbers and determined about 7% of Georgia voters who have cast GOP ballots so far previously pulled a Democratic ballot two years ago.

State election figures show smaller numbers of Republican voters from 2020 are voting in the Democratic primary this year. Less than 1% of Democratic voters participated in the 2020 GOP primary.

This would be enough to shift the 56.6-43.4 composition to roughly 53-47.  

So it’s not like 35% of democrats joining the GOP primary like some on here would say lol.

I would argue that a small portion of these crossovers could be legitimate swing voters who happened to change their voting preference recently. Even assuming that’s not the case, 53-47 early vote means that the GOP will run away with the majority of primary votes

Nobody was acting as if it was 35%. But 7% is substantial, considering a 53-47 early vote is even less than the R/D EV composition in 2018.

2018 is like a lifetime away when it comes to early voting since that was prior to Trump's demonization of mail-in voting. I'd say these results are incomparable with the previous ones and we just have to wait for the final turnout to make comparisons.

2.4% of 2018 primary voters in GA cast a ballot by mail; the mail vote was 53.1 GOP - 46.9 DEM. Even with said argument, we're talking about a negligible skew at best.

Even now - in 2022 - the mail vote is 52.3 DEM - 47.7 GOP (8.1% of primary voters). We're not seeing some herculean surge or split in ABM, at least in this primary. Important to remember that GAGOP kneecapped ABM options post-2020 for a lot of voters who skew Democratic, so...

I'm as high-propensity and high-info as they get, and yet, I'll be voting in a couple of hours on Election Day. I'll believe it when I see it, but I'm not convinced at all that we're going to see some 70/30 ED split like some seem to think will happen; I think the odds are much greater than ED only differs by a couple of points from EV.

[Del Tachi]

I'll make my final GA-GOV prediction

Kemp 58
Perdue 37
Taylor 4

[LabourJersey]

I'll make my final GA-GOV prediction

Kemp 58
Perdue 37
Taylor 4

At this rate I would be surprised if Perdue does that well. It seems everything is going wrong for him

[GeorgiaModerate]

538's preview of the Georgia primaries by Geoffrey Skelley: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/georgias-primaries-may-be-trumps-biggest-test-yet/