Israeli Election

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Meretz and Likud in the same governing coalition? I can't see the logic behind that at all.

[minionofmidas]

Meretz and Likud in the same governing coalition? I can't see the logic behind that at all.

Keeping out Kadima's the logic behind it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What would be the point of each party putting the party they disagree with far more in just to keep Kadima out?

[minionofmidas]

What would be the point of each party putting the party they disagree with far more in just to keep Kadima out?

They might not like the people in charge of Kadima.

[ag]

Some more news.  First, it seems in a minor counting mishap, hundreds ov votes in Arab villages in the north were assigned to a small right-wing Jewish faction (Herut) instead of the Arab Ra'am-Ta'al. Since the latter party is only 85 votes short of the 4th seat, they are appealing for a correction. In case this is accepted, the extra seat would come from Labor, reducing their tally to 19.

In another news, the ultra-rightwing NU-NRP is, apparently, planning to support Labor's Amir Peretz for the PM. Likud and Meretz are still considering what to do.

[M]

Ironically Labor's 20th seat holder is a Muslim Arab.

[ag]

Ironically Labor's 20th seat holder is a Muslim Arab.

A Druze. A Druze is not a Muslim.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ironically Labor's 20th seat holder is a Muslim Arab.

A Druze. A Druze is not a Muslim.

They consider themselves to be Muslims, although most Muslims don't. Comparable to Mormons perhaps.

[ATFFL]

Ironically Labor's 20th seat holder is a Muslim Arab.

A Druze. A Druze is not a Muslim.

They consider themselves to be Muslims, although most Muslims don't. Comparable to Mormons perhaps.

I have been trying to come up with a halfway decent analogy for the Druze.  That is a good one.  Thanks.

[ag]

Ironically Labor's 20th seat holder is a Muslim Arab.

A Druze. A Druze is not a Muslim.

They consider themselves to be Muslims, although most Muslims don't. Comparable to Mormons perhaps.

I have been trying to come up with a halfway decent analogy for the Druze.  That is a good one.  Thanks.

If I understand it right, not even that. They claim to consider themselves Muslims since they live in predominantly Muslim countries, but whether they actually would repeat the claim among themselves is far from clear. They are a lot further away from Islam than the Mormons are from Christianity, if I get it right - I don't think they can be described as followers of Mohammed in any strict sense.

[M]

Ironically Labor's 20th seat holder is a Muslim Arab.

Right, he was a Druze. I confused him with Labor's seat 19, who IS Muslim.

Note that an ultra-Orthodox single faction is being formed between Shas and UTJ. This bloc would have 18 seats- one less than Labor. It could be excluded from a government that was even semi-pro-withdrawals by a Kadima-Labor-Pensioners-Beitenu bloc, at 64 seats.

[ag]

Ironically Labor's 20th seat holder is a Muslim Arab.

Right, he was a Druze. I confused him with Labor's seat 19, who IS Muslim.

Note that an ultra-Orthodox single faction is being formed between Shas and UTJ. This bloc would have 18 seats- one less than Labor. It could be excluded from a government that was even semi-pro-withdrawals by a Kadima-Labor-Pensioners-Beitenu bloc, at 64 seats.

A government w/ both Labor and Yisrael Beiteinu is a near impossibility: Labor would crack, probably, if not immediately, then pretty soon. Labor and the ultra-religious are a much better fit (and the ultra-religious are easier to pursuade to withdraw in a manner acceptable to labor).

[ag]

Seems indeed, Abas Zakur from the United Arab List (Ra'am Ta'al) is replacing Labor's Watnan Shib as MK.

In other news, both Labor's Peretz and Kadima's Olmert are under attack from their own sides, unhappy with Peretz's looking towards the ultra-right (Labor) and Olmert's dismissive attacks on Peretz and Labor (Kadima), which are perceived as complicating the formation of the only acceptable government. Furthermore, both Shas and Meretz have decided to support Olmert for PM before the President. In case of Meretz this is done explicitly despite their personal and ideological preference for Peretz, because they believe Peretz would only be able to form a government w/ the ultra-right, which is unacceptable to them.

[ag]

A lot of parties are asking for recounts. NRP believes in some settlements they've counted implausibly large numbers of votes for Shinui, furthermore (quote from Haaretz):

"The Yisrael Beiteinu party needs a mere 175 votes in order to secure an additional seat at Likud's expense. Likewise, Meretz is only 145 votes away from stealing a seat from Labor, while Shas needs approximately 770 votes to obtain a seat from Kadima."

[minionofmidas]

[WMS]

Interesting election, and it went pretty much as I wanted it to. And instead of wondering what the results would've been under FPTP...how about under a German-level threshold of 5%?

Wait a sec...
all I can tell you without looking (since I've checked that already) is that under Hare-Niemeyer, Kadima, Avoda and Likud would have a seat less each, and Gil, United Arab List and Hadash one seat more.

Frankly, I can't imagine a 5% threshold getting passed in Israel - I can't imagine an Israeli government trying to force the Ashkenazi Haredim out of parliament. (they took around 4.5 IIRC)

Thanks for the analysis.

And I have long compared the Druze and the Mormons to each other...so BRTD is pretty much correct on that one.