California Primaries
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Citizen James
James42
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« on: November 21, 2005, 04:03:45 AM »

Seven months off and I'm already interested.   Thus far Steve Westly and Phil Angeledies are considered the top contenders.  Do any of you think one or another have an advantage this early in the race?  Anyone want to speculate as to how the Dem primaries will run between them, or will another major player enter the pack, and if so how will they do?

Things aren't nessisarilly a Hobsons choice on the GOP side either.  Given Schwartzeneggers lukewarm appeal to mainstream conservatives, and his rather lukewarm popularity, it is possible he might get a primary chalenger - but if so, who?
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jfern
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« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2005, 04:09:02 AM »

Seven months off and I'm already interested.   Thus far Steve Westly and Phil Angeledies are considered the top contenders.  Do any of you think one or another have an advantage this early in the race?  Anyone want to speculate as to how the Dem primaries will run between them, or will another major player enter the pack, and if so how will they do?

Things aren't nessisarilly a Hobsons choice on the GOP side either.  Given Schwartzeneggers lukewarm appeal to mainstream conservatives, and his rather lukewarm popularity, it is possible he might get a primary chalenger - but if so, who?

Westly and Angelides are both strong candidates. Angelides looks a bit stronger. He went against Arnold back when Arnold was popular. That should help him now that Arnold is unpopular.
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jfern
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« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2005, 04:15:19 AM »
« Edited: November 21, 2005, 04:24:42 AM by jfern »

You can get more information here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_gubernatorial_election%2C_2006

Edie Bukewihge is a no name candidate.

Here are how Angelides and Westly have done in past races.

Angelides had solid wins in 1998 and 2002 against strong Green candidates.



Westly also had strong Green opposition, but barely won in 2002.



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phk
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« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2005, 02:17:49 PM »

As long as they minimize Orange County and maximize Democratic-voters in the Central Valley; it will be quite solid.
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Frodo
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« Reply #4 on: November 23, 2005, 02:33:19 PM »

Given Schwartzeneggers lukewarm appeal to mainstream conservatives, and his rather lukewarm popularity, it is possible he might get a primary chalenger - but if so, who?

Tom McClintock, Darrell Issa, Bill Simon, Richard Riordan, or Richard Pombo are the first names that come to mind.   
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The Duke
JohnD.Ford
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« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2005, 03:12:36 PM »

Angelides has the edge, because he can self finance.  CA is so huge that money often proves the decisive factor.
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socaldem
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« Reply #6 on: November 23, 2005, 03:59:56 PM »

Given Schwartzeneggers lukewarm appeal to mainstream conservatives, and his rather lukewarm popularity, it is possible he might get a primary chalenger - but if so, who?

Tom McClintock, Darrell Issa, Bill Simon, Richard Riordan, or Richard Pombo are the first names that come to mind.   

Uh, I highly doubt Schwarzenegger will have a primary challenge... though he's unpopular, GOPers realize that he still gives them their best shot.  After all, he's the only one that can raise the funds needed...

McClintock has made peace with Arnold and is running for LG...

Darrell Issa is definitely interested in statewide office at some point, but he's not electable...

The mention of Richard Pombo is funny...with his enviro record, he's probably the least electable Republican in the entire state...
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socaldem
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« Reply #7 on: November 23, 2005, 04:00:57 PM »

Angelides has the edge, because he can self finance.  CA is so huge that money often proves the decisive factor.

Are you confusing Angelides with Westly?  I don't know how much dough Angelides has, but Westly--founder of e-bay--is absolutely loaded.
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The Duke
JohnD.Ford
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« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2005, 04:15:02 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2005, 04:19:01 PM by John Ford »

Angelides has the edge, because he can self finance.  CA is so huge that money often proves the decisive factor.

Are you confusing Angelides with Westly?  I don't know how much dough Angelides has, but Westly--founder of e-bay--is absolutely loaded.

I didn't know Westly was rich, but Angelides is worth about $10 million.

EDIT: Looked it up, Westly was CEO of Ebay, but not the founder.
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jfern
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« Reply #9 on: November 24, 2005, 12:25:22 AM »

Angelides has the edge, because he can self finance.  CA is so huge that money often proves the decisive factor.

What? He's poorer than both his primary opposition of Westly and Arnold, who are both worth around $100 million. Typical Republican strategy - attack the poorest of the 3 guys for being rich.
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Citizen James
James42
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« Reply #10 on: November 24, 2005, 04:01:48 PM »

Angelides has the edge, because he can self finance.  CA is so huge that money often proves the decisive factor.

What? He's poorer than both his primary opposition of Westly and Arnold, who are both worth around $100 million. Typical Republican strategy - attack the poorest of the 3 guys for being rich.

WTF?

I see only analysis, not attacks here.

Though FWIW, there have been more than a few occations where the less financed candidate/proposition wins.
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The Duke
JohnD.Ford
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« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2005, 03:06:53 AM »

Angelides has the edge, because he can self finance.  CA is so huge that money often proves the decisive factor.

What? He's poorer than both his primary opposition of Westly and Arnold, who are both worth around $100 million. Typical Republican strategy - attack the poorest of the 3 guys for being rich.

Attack?  Wtf are you talking about, I've done no such thing.
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jfern
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« Reply #12 on: November 26, 2005, 11:47:36 PM »

Angelides has the edge, because he can self finance.  CA is so huge that money often proves the decisive factor.

What? He's poorer than both his primary opposition of Westly and Arnold, who are both worth around $100 million. Typical Republican strategy - attack the poorest of the 3 guys for being rich.

WTF?

I see only analysis, not attacks here.

Though FWIW, there have been more than a few occations where the less financed candidate/proposition wins.

Such brilliant analysis. Someone worth $10 million running in the primary against someone worth $100 million, and then would have the general election against someone worth $100 million clearly has the advantage due to self-financing? That's not analysis. Either it was an attack, or John Ford can't make a reasonable argument.
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The Duke
JohnD.Ford
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« Reply #13 on: November 27, 2005, 01:02:51 AM »

Angelides has the edge, because he can self finance.  CA is so huge that money often proves the decisive factor.

What? He's poorer than both his primary opposition of Westly and Arnold, who are both worth around $100 million. Typical Republican strategy - attack the poorest of the 3 guys for being rich.

WTF?

I see only analysis, not attacks here.

Though FWIW, there have been more than a few occations where the less financed candidate/proposition wins.

Such brilliant analysis. Someone worth $10 million running in the primary against someone worth $100 million, and then would have the general election against someone worth $100 million clearly has the advantage due to self-financing? That's not analysis. Either it was an attack, or John Ford can't make a reasonable argument.

I was referring only to the primary, making Schwarzenegger's worth irrelevant, and I did not know that Westly was worth $100 million.  So no, its neither of the two things you mentioned.
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