2000 without Lewinsky

[darklordoftech]

What would the map have looked like without Lewinsky?

[vanteran]

I think Gore would obviously tie himself closer to Clinton without Lewinsky which would benefit Gore, swinging Florida, New Hampshire, and possibly Arkansas + West Virginia into Gore's column.

[One Term Floridian]

Al Gore/Dick Gephardt 350 electoral votes to George W. Bush/Dick Cheney 188 electoral votes

Completely different. In this scenario, Bill Clinton's personal favorability and job approval numbers are good. This way, Al Gore knows to run both on the Clinton/Gore record and with him on the stump. Additionally, Gore doesn't make the mistake of selecting Lieberman to distance himself from Clinton for his character flaws. SNL is also sure to do a parody of the Dick v. Dick VP debates. All in all, it's a comfortable Gore win with the Senate and much of the House elections looking pretty much the same as IRL

[brucejoel99]

Without the Lewinsky scandal, Gore would've done a little bit better in 2000, though as we all know, "a little bit better" is all it would've taken for Gore to win.

For one thing, Bush's claim that he'd change the tone of Washington wouldn't necessarily be more attractive to voters.

Aside from that, though, Gore would've won without the Lewinsky scandal for the simple reason that he wouldn't have made the mistake of distancing himself from Clinton. Without the Lewinsky scandal, it wouldn't have been harder for Gore to run on Clinton's record or to have Clinton campaign with him. If a Clinton with high personal approval ratings (which had been permanently lowered by the Lewinsky scandal) as well as his high job approvals were campaigning for Gore in a state like New Hampshire, which Clinton had carried by about 10% of the vote in 1996, then Gore would likely easily carry New Hampshire in 2000, meaning he wouldn't even had to have carried Florida.

[morgankingsley]

Gore wins extra states and instantly wins since he only needed one more state

[darklordoftech]

Would Bush still be the nominee if Lewinsky didn't happen?

[Senator Incitatus]

Wpuld Bush still be the nominee if Lewinsky didn't happen?

Bush was basically locked in as the nominee (assuming he ran) as soon as he was overwhelmingly re-elected in '98.

Anyway, I don't think this necessarily flips the race nationally – but it does change the map. We might see Bush campaign more as his father's son than as a "compassionate conservative" who wanted to bring respectability back to the White House. Maybe a harder push to win back the suburbs on economic policy.

[Esteemed Jimmy]

Gore wins extra states and instantly wins since he only needed one more state

[Beet]

The Democrats should have learned the lesson after the Clinton presidency that their candidates should run a tight ship sexually. Instead they're still out there defending Al Franken and saying he was mistreated.

[Sumner 1868]

Just before the Lewinsky soap opera, Bill Clinton made a deal with Newt Gingrich to essentially launch the same Social Security privitization plan Bush proposed in 2005. The backlash from elderly WWII Democrats would have been enormous, and Gore likely would have done far worse than he did OTL.

[brucejoel99]

Just before the Lewinsky soap opera, Bill Clinton made a deal with Newt Gingrich to essentially launch the same Social Security privitization plan Bush proposed in 2005. The backlash from elderly WWII Democrats would have been enormous, and Gore likely would have done far worse than he did OTL.

To be fair, whether it would've passed or not is a whole other matter, considering Social Security is a lot more popular than welfare, & Clinton probably would've faced a massive internal party revolt, no matter how much he may have tried to label it "saving" Social Security.

Had it succeeded, though, it's correct that privatizing Social Security would've likely been devastating to the Democrats come 2000. There would've been some massive political infighting between the liberal Democrats & the centrists who were Clinton's allies. "Clinton sold us out!" would be a pretty nasty rallying cry to run on in the Democratic primaries (& potentially on the convention floor). It might've well be enough to knock out anyone too closely tied to Bill (such as Gore) too. At the very least, it likely would've significantly softened Gore's appeal come November.

[Alben Barkley]

Gore wins. But not because voters actually cared about Lewinsky, but rather because Gore wouldn't mistakenly believe they did. He wouldn't hesitate to campaign extensively with Clinton and tie himself heavily to Clinton, running for a "third term" essentially of the extremely popular president with a booming economy, much like Bush in '88.

Granted, there may have been a couple of states (including perhaps Gore's home state of Tennessee as well as Clinton's home state of Arkansas) where enough social/religious conservatives were in fact turned off by Clinton's behavior that it could make a difference there by itself.

But regardless, Gore wins easily. Even with all the mistakes in his campaign, he still won "lost" by like 200 votes.

[dw93]

As others have said, Clinton and Gingrich would've tried to push Social Security reform, though I think the Democrats would face the electoral backlash for it in 1998 instead of 2000, so the Democrats would have a typical "six year itch" instead of gains like in OTL. I doubt the plan would've succeeded as even some more moderate Republicans didn't vote for it when Bush tried to do it in 2005. The attempt does give Gore a serious primary challenge, though Gore still prevails in the end and picks a liberal and/or populist running mate to unify the party. Bush still is the GOP nominee and with a unified Democratic base, a good economy, and a lack of serious scandal, Gore beats Bush in the general, but the Republicans keep congress as even if there are Democratic gains down ticket, there won't be enough to offset the Republican gains in 1998. The GOP probably gains big in 2002 and wins back the Presidency in 2004.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NH would have put Gore over the top, not FL, and NH could have been won, with Graham, as well as FL, as Veep nominee.