What would a Republican version of 1964 look like?

[Ilhan Apologist]

As in, the Republican wins almost every state. But the Democrat wins their home state by a hair, and carries a handful of solidly Republican states (some in a landslide).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Nixon did it, he was a compassionate conservative and Reagan had the economy.  AZ and FL are trending Dem, I doubt that it will happen again

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Maybe this could have happened in 1972 if it had been Nixon vs. Frank Church or something.

[Skill and Chance]

JBE as the Dem nominee vs. incumbent DeSantis in a booming economy?  The NE completely bails on him, but he wins a number of Southern states that are majority-minority or nearly so and only a small SocCon crossover vote is needed to flip them? 

CA and TX would both be within 5 and JBE loses some Bay Area counties that have been Dem since 1992.

[Orser67]

Probably not possible with the increasing importance of partisanship in presidential voting. If it did happen, my guess is that the Democratic candidate would be from a small, non-Southern state with a fairly independent voting streak. So in terms of swing states, that pretty much means Maine or New Hampshire. The Democrat probably wins his home state as well as HI, CA, and MD.

[Wazza [INACTIVE]]

Jim Hood wears white robes for the entirety of his candidacy for the Presidency and gives speeches consisting entirely of the n word. the deep South becomes titanium Democratic because all the racist inbred uneducated white rednecks vote for Hood and he retains most black support because of the holy D next to his name. Everywhere else votes Republican except for Nevada which is a carbon nanotube D state.

[Agonized-Statism]

JBE as the Dem nominee vs. incumbent DeSantis in a booming economy?  The NE completely bails on him, but he wins a number of Southern states that are majority-minority or nearly so and only a small SocCon crossover vote is needed to flip them?  

CA and TX would both be within 5 and JBE loses some Bay Area counties that have been Dem since 1992.

This. A few solidly Democratic states and southern protest votes for the Democrat, probably someone like JBE against Ron DeSantis. Maybe DeSantis is ultra socially liberal and fiscally conservative, while Edwards runs a crossover ticket with Jon Huntsman.

[Politician]

Jim Hood wears white robes for the entirety of his candidacy for the Presidency and gives speeches consisting entirely of the n word. the deep South becomes titanium Democratic because all the racist inbred uneducated white rednecks vote for Hood and he retains most black support because of the holy D next to his name. Everywhere else votes Republican except for Nevada which is a carbon nanotube D state.

And Virginia which is a Tungsten D state because IndyRep told me so and Hood wins it with over 60% regardless of what he does.

[Ye We Can]

JBE as the Dem nominee vs. incumbent DeSantis in a booming economy?  The NE completely bails on him, but he wins a number of Southern states that are majority-minority or nearly so and only a small SocCon crossover vote is needed to flip them?  

CA and TX would both be within 5 and JBE loses some Bay Area counties that have been Dem since 1992.

Beautiful

I'd flip Hawaii and maybe Massachusetts though

[Agonized-Statism]

Alternative: a farm crisis causes the Great Plains to flip in protest. Other than that, the favorite son candidate only wins the safest of Democratic states.

[Skill and Chance]

JBE as the Dem nominee vs. incumbent DeSantis in a booming economy?  The NE completely bails on him, but he wins a number of Southern states that are majority-minority or nearly so and only a small SocCon crossover vote is needed to flip them?  

CA and TX would both be within 5 and JBE loses some Bay Area counties that have been Dem since 1992.

Beautiful

I'd flip Hawaii and maybe Massachusetts though

Hawaii has a very significant SoCon Dem presence.  I think it would be one of the most sure thing states for JBE.

[Ye We Can]

JBE as the Dem nominee vs. incumbent DeSantis in a booming economy?  The NE completely bails on him, but he wins a number of Southern states that are majority-minority or nearly so and only a small SocCon crossover vote is needed to flip them?  

CA and TX would both be within 5 and JBE loses some Bay Area counties that have been Dem since 1992.

Beautiful

I'd flip Hawaii and maybe Massachusetts though

Hawaii has a very significant SoCon Dem presence.  I think it would be one of the most sure thing states for JBE.

I think it's I love incumbents day would cancel it out

[Person Man]

As in, the Republican wins almost every state. But the Democrat wins their home state by a hair, and carries a handful of solidly Republican states (some in a landslide).

What do you mean a "handful of solidly Republican states"? That literally or states that still pretty Republican but rapidly trending away from Republicans?

If the latter, I see sometime in the 2020s or 2030s-

Maybe the trade wars escalate and it hurts people in natural resources

Roe gets overturned and there's no "herding" effect by it. Secular rural voters who normally vote Republican but not on abortion go from "not caring about it" to actually concerned what the recent personhood laws are doing to their state. About 15 or 20 states have made it legal and stopped talking about it thus making it easier for Republicans to campaign in that state.  About 20 rural or southern states have personhood laws. States like Florida, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania have complicated laws on identity issues like this and they are always in play.


A Trumpy republican who is much more presidential is running in a similar "A-OK" economy like today. Because cultural issues are so atomized to their states, Republican nominees for president no longer have to care about them. He goes into Election Day in 2032 with a 57% approval rating.

Maybe, just like 1964 or 1928, this is the last election before the sh**t finally hits the fan with the economy going bust and/or the effects of decades of pushing theonomy and nationalism finally starts causing hardships to people that are on or around the peak of the demographic bell curve.
Basically, the new D coalition is almost exactly like the original GOP one.

- Minorities that are afraid of nationalists
- Working people afraid of trade wars
- Professionals and "city slickers" afraid of the aspects of "Populism"
- Business people who realize that "liberalism" in its current form has run its course and its better to be proactive in order to preserve as much of it as possible from Marxism or Feudalism or, better yet, to find liberalism 2.0.

[Skill and Chance]

JBE as the Dem nominee vs. incumbent DeSantis in a booming economy?  The NE completely bails on him, but he wins a number of Southern states that are majority-minority or nearly so and only a small SocCon crossover vote is needed to flip them? 

CA and TX would both be within 5 and JBE loses some Bay Area counties that have been Dem since 1992.

Beautiful

I'd flip Hawaii and maybe Massachusetts though

Hawaii has a very significant SoCon Dem presence.  I think it would be one of the most sure thing states for JBE.

I think it's I love incumbents day would cancel it out

Also, if this is a true Dem 1964, that means that 10-20 years later the political alignment would be religious left Dems with a Southern/urban minority base vs. a secular nationalist GOP with a rural North/Midwestern base.  A plausible close 2040ish election if that happens:

[100% pro-life no matter what]

JBE as the Dem nominee vs. incumbent DeSantis in a booming economy?  The NE completely bails on him, but he wins a number of Southern states that are majority-minority or nearly so and only a small SocCon crossover vote is needed to flip them?  

CA and TX would both be within 5 and JBE loses some Bay Area counties that have been Dem since 1992.

Beautiful

I'd flip Hawaii and maybe Massachusetts though

Hawaii has a very significant SoCon Dem presence.  I think it would be one of the most sure thing states for JBE.

I think it's I love incumbents day would cancel it out

Also, if this is a true Dem 1964, that means that 10-20 years later the political alignment would be religious left Dems with a Southern/urban minority base vs. a secular nationalist GOP with a rural North/Midwestern base.  A plausible close 2040ish election if that happens:

Would people like me be Democrats or completely disenfranchised by the system and non-voters/voters for some third party?

[Skill and Chance]

JBE as the Dem nominee vs. incumbent DeSantis in a booming economy?  The NE completely bails on him, but he wins a number of Southern states that are majority-minority or nearly so and only a small SocCon crossover vote is needed to flip them? 

CA and TX would both be within 5 and JBE loses some Bay Area counties that have been Dem since 1992.

Beautiful

I'd flip Hawaii and maybe Massachusetts though

Hawaii has a very significant SoCon Dem presence.  I think it would be one of the most sure thing states for JBE.

I think it's I love incumbents day would cancel it out

Also, if this is a true Dem 1964, that means that 10-20 years later the political alignment would be religious left Dems with a Southern/urban minority base vs. a secular nationalist GOP with a rural North/Midwestern base.  A plausible close 2040ish election if that happens:

Would people like me be Democrats or completely disenfranchised by the system and non-voters/voters for some third party?

You would be unhappy in the way a conservative Dems were post-FDR or NeverTrump R's are today.  You would probably be a Dem-leaning swing voter by that point, going 3rd party if both the D and R are too economically left for you and abortion is a settled issue in your state.

[One Term Floridian]

As in, the Republican wins almost every state. But the Democrat wins their home state by a hair, and carries a handful of solidly Republican states (some in a landslide).

The closest we've gotten to this is 1988, with Dukakis underperforming in his home state of Massachusetts (winning by just 8 ) but dominating in Iowa by over 10 and nearly winning Vermont, two very GOP states back then. He also managed to solidify a number of states like Oregon, Washington and New York in the D column as well as narrow into single digits what used to be double digit GOP margins in California, Colorado and New Mexico, much like Goldwater did with the Deep South.

1984 would have easily qualified if the farm crisis had hit full swing earlier.

[UnselfconsciousTeff]

Litterally 1956

[Mr. Smith]

1972 actually, if McGovern had been a bit more competent at campaigning. He's the last Democrat in quite some time to get a generous number of Western states to vote left of the nation. Or at least trend that way.

[Ilhan Apologist]

Litterally 1956

[lfromnj]

1928 was the Republican version of 64.

[brucejoel99]

1928 was the Republican version of 64.

Alternatively, 1964 was the Democratic version of 1928

[SingingAnalyst]

Maybe something like this? GOP wins 423-115. I don't see CA going Republican under any near-term scenario.