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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Will WV be a D pickup? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Will WV be a D pickup?  (Read 1696 times)
Today's Left Is In No Way Liberal
Fuzzy Bear
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« on: May 27, 2019, 08:48:26 am »

Safe D. Paula Jean Swearengin will defeat Shelley Moore Capito by 50%+.
What? This is nonsense you neoliberal.
Paula Jean Swearengin will get 90% by getting ancestral Dems from coal country (her father was a miner) and students in the state university.
Richard Ojeda will beat Jim Justice through #populism you neoliberal.

Is this tongue-in-cheek?

WV shifted to the GOP in 2000 because its nominee, Al Gore, was the poster child of the anti-fossil fuels campaign.  It's as simple as that.  WV is socially conservative, but its social conservatism didn't interfere with it's voting Democratic for the most part.  Even in 1984, Reagan carried WV 55-45, which was only 1 point higher than he carried New York, which Reagan carried 54-46.

The UMW did not endorse a candidate in 2016; this was huge for Trump and the GOP in WV, and contributed to the exaggerated margin Trump won by.  I strongly suspect that the UMW will endorse Biden in 2020.  I also suspect that some of the conservative economics of Trump will not be helpful in WV.  I would not be surprised if the Democrats rebound somewhat in WV, though the hits they've taken will make it tough for them carry state offices they don't currently hold.
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Today's Left Is In No Way Liberal
Fuzzy Bear
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,577
United States


WWW
« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2019, 04:31:42 pm »

Safe D. Paula Jean Swearengin will defeat Shelley Moore Capito by 50%+.
What? This is nonsense you neoliberal.
Paula Jean Swearengin will get 90% by getting ancestral Dems from coal country (her father was a miner) and students in the state university.
Richard Ojeda will beat Jim Justice through #populism you neoliberal.

Is this tongue-in-cheek?

WV shifted to the GOP in 2000 because its nominee, Al Gore, was the poster child of the anti-fossil fuels campaign.  It's as simple as that.  WV is socially conservative, but its social conservatism didn't interfere with it's voting Democratic for the most part.  Even in 1984, Reagan carried WV 55-45, which was only 1 point higher than he carried New York, which Reagan carried 54-46.

The UMW did not endorse a candidate in 2016; this was huge for Trump and the GOP in WV, and contributed to the exaggerated margin Trump won by.  I strongly suspect that the UMW will endorse Biden in 2020.  I also suspect that some of the conservative economics of Trump will not be helpful in WV.  I would not be surprised if the Democrats rebound somewhat in WV, though the hits they've taken will make it tough for them carry state offices they don't currently hold.

I'm totally kidding. Titanium R always.

I probably agree.  It didn't have to be that way, but the Democrats have done all they could to make that worse, and the path back is probably blocked for them at this point.

The sad thing about the Democrats losing WV (and KY, for that matter) is the fact that these states have decent percentages of unionized workers; they are NOT part of the South.  Their voters have been, until recently, extremely elastic.  Even Robert Byrd (D-WV) voted for the 1965 and 1968. 
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