2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

No race with an incumbent with approval ratings this poor is Safe for that incumbent, but Kentucky's partisan lean will be hard for the Democratic candidate to overcome. Lean/Likely R, Bevin probably wins by 5-8 points.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.

Probably something like this:

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1120393401583665157

Thinking Elliott County will vote Democratic is like thinking Loudoun County will vote Republican

In a presidential election, yes. but it can still go Democratic in a localized election since it takes longer for trends at the top of the ticket to completely trickle down to the local level. any conceivable statewide D win in Kentucky probably involves the Democrat winning Elliot, although not by a huge margin.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

These results basically mesh well with my initial prediction of Bevin +5 to +8 in the general, although I am surprised he only won his primary by ~13 points... could be a sign of things to come, or not. we'll see.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Good sign for JBE and Hood?

How is an extremely unpopular governor doing poorly in his primary in Kentucky good news for Democratic candidates in Louisiana and Mississippi?

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

I still think that once Trump goes and does a couple rallies for Bevin, screaming "SOCIALISM!", Beshear will fall behind. I think Bevin wins by a comfortable margin.

If Beshear loses, it will be because Kentucky is a red state to begin with, not because Trump held some rallies there.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Polling looks really bad for Bevin right now, but let's wait until at least October before we start declaring Beshear the winner. this is Kentucky after all.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Polling looks really bad for Bevin right now, but let's wait until at least October before we start declaring Beshear the winner. this is Kentucky after all.

Even in October polls will "tighten" to Beshear +5 and then election day will shut down any confidence in Kentucky polling (if there is any left).

If Beshear is consistently ahead all the way through to Election Day, I'd feel fairly confident saying he'll win. just because polls were off in 2015 doesn't mean they will be in 2019.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

I haven't really been following this race, but this video popped up on my twitter feed. I have no words.

Old white men should not try and rap, period.