2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Politician]

Seriously, when did I miss Bevin getting a serious primary challenger?

Goforth wasn't that serious, that's the thing. He ran one badly disjointed ad the whole primary

If that's true then this is incredibly embarrassing for Bevin.

It’s a landslide compared with Bevin’s last primary victory, which I remember only too well.

Bevin won the primary by 83 votes over James Comer.

Had Comer won the primary, he would have been on course to win re-election easily.

[Politician]

What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.

Probably something like this:

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1120393401583665157

[Politician]

What the hell would a Beshear win against Bevin even look like in the general for all the people out there that say it's possible? lol at it happening with a rural resurgence.

Probably something like this:

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1120393401583665157

Thinking Elliott County will vote Democratic is like thinking Loudoun County will vote Republican

Elliott County literally supported a Democrat in a federal race in 2016 of all years.

So did Loudoun County...

Really? Even Comstock lost it.

[Politician]

If Matt Bevin is re-elected, how insufferable will IceSpear be after election day?

[Politician]

Is Rocky ahead with all of Lex in?

Yes

[Politician]

Adkins got 97% of the vote in Elliott County

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1139551372758650881

If this is true, Bevin might actually be on track to lose in a landslide.

[Politician]

Inside Elections shifts race from Lean R to Tossup.

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1152308220968521729

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1159276367042830344?s=21

Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer

Private polls generally overestimate Democrats by much less, though.

[Politician]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1159276367042830344?s=21

Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer

Private polls generally overestimate Democrats by much less, though.

Just like that private McGrath poll showing her leading Andy Barr by 16% or whatever right? And Manchin up by double digits?

That was a public poll

[Politician]

poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.

Neither were polls showing Bredesen narrowly ahead. And polls showing Clinton consistently ahead 2-6 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin weren't bad news for her either. If you know polling history in this area of the country, you should understand the exercise of caution.

Bredesen was never up by 5-6 points at this point in the cycle.

[Politician]

poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.

Neither were polls showing Bredesen narrowly ahead. And polls showing Clinton consistently ahead 2-6 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin weren't bad news for her either. If you know polling history in this area of the country, you should understand the exercise of caution.

Bredesen was never up by 5-6 points at this point in the cycle.

You’re right. He was up double digits

Wrong. He was up by 2 in a Marist poll and down by 4 in a Gravis poll.

[Politician]

Another GOP politician endorses Beshear.

https://mobile.twitter.com/andybeshearky/status/1163783385300570112?s=21

[Politician]

Bevin rally with Trump Jr. in Covington doesn't draw a good crowd:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RylandKY/status/1167146895845797888

[Politician]

Of course TrendsAreReal finds a way to derail a thread.

[Politician]

IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

No need to rely on the video, though it's good anecdotal evidence along with my own personal experiences in KY/WV. If you prefer empirical data, feel free to refer to post #370.

By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist

Were they that worried about the coal industry in Portland?

Um no they just liked McCain a lot(they would have voted for Hillary though ) and thought Obama did a bad job as President .

What part of KY did they live in?

They live in Portland Suburbs but I was giving an example of why you can’t call someone racist just for that type of voting record

Funnily enough there are 3 Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney/Clinton towns in Massachusetts.

IceSpear: "Kerry/McCain voters are all racists!"

Also IceSpear: "Romney/Clinton voters can't be racist!"

[Politician]

IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

No need to rely on the video, though it's good anecdotal evidence along with my own personal experiences in KY/WV. If you prefer empirical data, feel free to refer to post #370.

By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist

Were they that worried about the coal industry in Portland?

Um no they just liked McCain a lot(they would have voted for Hillary though ) and thought Obama did a bad job as President .

What part of KY did they live in?

They live in Portland Suburbs but I was giving an example of why you can’t call someone racist just for that type of voting record

Funnily enough there are 3 Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney/Clinton counties in Massachusetts.

IceSpear: "Kerry/McCain voters are all racists!"

Also IceSpear: "Romney/Clinton voters can't be racist!"

Uh, what? Democrats have won every county in Massachusetts since 1992.

*Towns, my bad.

[Politician]

I swear some of you have never even been to Appalachia or rural America at all, let alone spend much time there. I’m sure all the people proudly displaying their Confederate flags in Union states are just doing it out of heritage and definitely not racism.

Ok then, tell me more about your experience in rural America.

[Politician]

I swear some of you have never even been to Appalachia or rural America at all, let alone spend much time there. I’m sure all the people proudly displaying their Confederate flags in Union states are just doing it out of heritage and definitely not racism.

Ok then, tell me more about your experience in rural America.

The morning after Obama won in 2008, teammates of mine on my football team thought it would be hilarious to wear towels on their heads to school the next morning because they were adamant he would impose Sharia Law. There’s plenty of these examples, but not sure if they’re safe for work

You literally live in San Antonio lmao

[Politician]

GOP Attorney General candidate may be removed from ballot due to not having the required qualifications:

https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article235134752.html

[Politician]

Oof

https://mobile.twitter.com/phillipmbailey/status/1180228336720715781?ref_src=tws...

[Politician]

Oof

https://mobile.twitter.com/phillipmbailey/status/1180228336720715781?ref_src=tws...

'He' is probably Beshear lmao

Are you seriously trying to spin this?

[Politician]

Could we possibly, PLEASE, withhold calling this race and calling everyone who disagrees idiots until we actually get some, y'know, real polling??

I mean yes, KY is ruby red and pro-Trump, but has shown even in this decade a willingness to vote Democratic down ballot. Bevin has horrific favorables and is running a poor campaign, plus Beshear is a good candidate.

Can we just universally call this Lean R/Undecided until polling arrives?

Truly, beyond what I mentioned above, no one really has any clue how this race is shaping up.

There are actually plenty of clues how this race will end up. The first clue is that it’s a partisan election being held in Kentucky.

Senator Moore, Senator Morrissey, Senator Rosendale and Governor Kobach agree.

[Politician]

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

[Politician]

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.

Not you specifically, but some other users I remember saying they wanted Colyer to win the primary to prevent the risk of Kobach winning, and when I pointed out Kobach would be easier to beat, they were like "lol no, Kobach is still going to win!"

Anyway, you're using the same logic in this race you did here:

People honestly think Jones has a chance? Come on, people, this is Alabama we're talking about. Moore's scandal isn't going to sink him, just ask President Hillary Clinton or Congressman Rob Quist how much these scandals really affect the opinions of voters. Moore would win even if he didn't deny the allegations and claimed he felt good about what he did. I'll guess a slightly narrower margin, but Moore's magic (R) will still easily save him.

Moore - 53%
Jones - 45%