2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Sestak]

Did this Goforth guy actual run a reasonable-scope campaign?

[Sestak]

Big dump came in. Beshear is catching up fast. He will probably overtake Adkins shortly. Looking to be how we all figured - Bevin vs Beshear.

Yes, but margins here should be relatively interesting. Especially on the R side.

(and welcome to Atlas!)

[Sestak]

Seriously, when did I miss Bevin getting a serious primary challenger?

[Sestak]

Seriously, when did I miss Bevin getting a serious primary challenger?

Goforth wasn't that serious, that's the thing. He ran one badly disjointed ad the whole primary

If that's true then this is incredibly embarrassing for Bevin.

[Sestak]

Something (I think Floyd) just dropped to put adkins just under 50% overall. 20 points ahead of Beshear with 9% in.

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https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1130972255545122818?s=19

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Cincy metro seems to be what's keeping Beshear close right now. We'll have to see how  Jefferson shakes out.

[Sestak]

Jefferson drops its first 25 precincts. Adkins is getting curbstomped, only 11%.

[Sestak]

Jefferson drops its first 25 precincts. Adkins is getting curbstomped, only 11%.

Unless something changes dramatically here, Beshear should have this in the bag.

[Sestak]

At this point the Dem side is just waiting for Jefferson and Fayette to drop and nail it in for Beshear.

[Sestak]

I'm not so sure of Beshear winning anymore. 12,000+ is still pretty sizable for Louisville and Lexington to erase, and Adkins still has some coal counties out where he should net a few thousand more.

Eh he's netted 500 in Louisville with just 4% in there. If he holds that it'll erase 12K without Lexington. Add in the west (where Adkins seems to also be in third as often as he's in first) and it should seal it for Beshear.

[Sestak]

Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R.

Safe Bevin. It’s going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as “evidence” that Bevin is super vulnerable.

[Sestak]

Lexington is actually 97% in. I have no idea why it's only at 1% on the NYT page.

Andy Beshear   15,455   42%
Adam Edelen   12,918   35%
Rocky Adkins   7,803   21%

So Beshear netted 7652 votes out of Lexington so far, with a little more to go.

Right, forgot about Lexington delay.

Since that isn't on NYT map, lead is only down to 8,000 with 96% of Jefferson to go. Will be interesting.

[Sestak]

If Matt Bevin is re-elected, how insufferable will IceSpear be after election day?

The last time IceSpear was dead wrong (Alabama) he apologized for it and updated his later predictions (such as WV-Sen) with regards to that result. Unlike you, who have doubled down on all your incorrect takes without ever admitting you were wrong about almost everything in 2018.

[Sestak]

Wow, those Bevin numbers are just embarrassing. If he does poorly enough, I might seriously consider moving this to Likely R.

Safe Bevin. It’s going to be fun to see people try to use the D/R primary results as “evidence” that Bevin is super vulnerable.

I'm not using the D vs. R results, though, as in, the fact that there have been more votes cast in the Democratic primary isn't factoring into my rating at all. And "Likely R" isn't "super vulnerable."

Oh that's what you meant by D/R primary results. That makes more sense.

[Sestak]

A dump from Louisville

       Adam H. EDELEN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    10,179   44.96
           Geoffrey M. "Geoff" YOUNG .  .  .  .  .       453    2.00
           Rocky ADKINS  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,398   10.59
           Andy BESHEAR  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     9,611   42.45

Yeah, this is looking like it just might be Adkins' night.

Yeah, I don't think so. With Fayette numbers, Beshear is down around 5K statewide and already has 7K over Adkins from a quarter of Jefferson.

[Sestak]

A dump from Louisville

       Adam H. EDELEN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .    10,179   44.96
           Geoffrey M. "Geoff" YOUNG .  .  .  .  .       453    2.00
           Rocky ADKINS  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,398   10.59
           Andy BESHEAR  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     9,611   42.45

Yeah, this is looking like it just might be Adkins' night.

Yeah, I don't think so. With Fayette numbers, Beshear is down around 5K statewide and already has 7K over Adkins from a quarter of Jefferson.

Er, Beshear down 8K, but point stands. A lot of Jefferson is still out and he's still up big over Adkins.

[Sestak]

The AP calls it for Bevin.

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The AP calls it for Bevin.

Currently up 51.2-40.2.

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Beshear just about to pass.

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And Beshear takes the lead.

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This was pretty expected.

What, Bevin being at just 50% against a no-namer?

[Sestak]

Eastern Kentucky seems to have really liked Rocky Adkins. Huge margins in coal country for him, up to 90% in Rowan. Why?

Well he’s from there, for one thing. The other two candidates are from the metros. Adkins is from Elliott County.