2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Oryxslayer]

Bevin rally with Trump Jr. in Covington doesn't draw a good crowd:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RylandKY/status/1167146895845797888

Lololol

/

Putting those two on stage together without the President is probably not a good use of campaign resources in the first place. 

[Oryxslayer]

This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

[Oryxslayer]

Ask Drew Edmondson how an extremely unpopular Republican gubernatorial administration led to him getting clobbered by double digits

Incumbents are different from successors, this we know from plenty of historical examples: comparing OK Gov between 2014 and 2018 is actually one of the best examples. A better case for your point would be CTGOV 2014, when Malloy won reelection despite his unpopular administration and an GOP wave. A good case for the former are AKGOV14 and KSGOV 2014, where the opposition came close to or captured the office despite opposing national headwinds and unfavorable PVI. Like I said, there are plenty of cases and arguments to be had about which will end up as more  important.

[Oryxslayer]

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

I’m not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldn’t hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

I’ll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee that’s i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesn’t even seem to be trying to do that. It’s almost as if he’s going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

[Oryxslayer]

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

I’m not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldn’t hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

I’ll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee that’s i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesn’t even seem to be trying to do that. It’s almost as if he’s going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

Evansville has suburbs?

I'm fairly confident the 'city' of Henderson counts as a suburb.

But this is all about Beshears potential path. That path probably relies far more on places like Bowling Green, Hopkinsville, Henderson, Owensboro, Paducah, Frankfort, the Cincinnati Suburbs, etc, and then getting okay numbers from what rurals still will vote blue, rather than blowing it out in the rural east like the demeocrats of old. Both coalitions include Louisville and Lexington of course.

[Oryxslayer]

It seems to me that TrendsareReal has bought the lie that all republican voters are racists. That isn't true. Now there is a racist contingent in the party, and it is growing, but not thanks to the Greater Appalachian "V" (SWPA, WV, SE Ohio, parts of TN, KY, AR, Little Dixie in OK). Rather, it's growth comes from the increasing power of the continually racist deep South, and the new importance of the upper Midwest with it's legacy of informal discrimination. Those places voted against Obama, but voted in their moderate blue dogs locally or congressionally, because those democrats were supposedly different. But, shocker, they were not, and so conserva-dems got swept from power in all levels of government in 2010.

But then, what is it? It isn't coal, like was stated coal provides few jobs and despite it's cultural significance, isn't a motivating economic mover. What's really moving these voters in the "V" is their perception of American culture and the Nation. One of the great historical ironies is that the most poor citizens of a nation are often the most fervent trusters of the nation. They are most likely to have served military time, place trust in the president as a unitary executive, and support all actions of the state even if they are failing like Iraq. When you are born in poverty and have little chance of escaping poverty, you psychologically are more likely to place trust in the national myths and the roads to advancement supposedly open if you just trust. There is a reason why the region has the highest rates of people professing an American nationality and tradition rather than Irish-American or Italian-American or something else.

I suggest you read some Liah Greenfeld, or Broke and Patriotic: Why poor Americans love their country (researched before 2016, not after like other nationalitic works).

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MadelainePisani/status/1173589409536643073?s=20

The FOP endorsing a Dem after BLM and republican hugging that 'blue' vote is a huge surprise.

[Oryxslayer]

I actually don’t think all Republicans are racist. I have plenty of Republican friends and family, and think no less of them because they vote and support Trump. I am merely making the observation that the only thing substantial that changed from the mid 2000’s to 2016 was a black president with a funny name that caused a lot of formerly Democratic-voting people to throw their hands up in anguish in a lot of these rural counties. Barack Obama in 2008 wasn’t noticeably different from Bill Clinton in the 1990’s policy-wise in any substantive way. They definitely didn’t switch from Kerry to McCain and Romney over economic issues, lol.

That’s the last I’ll say about this, because clearly it’s really controversial on here to even suggest racism played a big part in the rapid Republicanization of these rural areas

There was another thing that occurred during that period: the Great Recession. These voters did not lose their jobs because they are already at the lowest rank on the fiscal ladder, and they are not afraid of losing them to mexicans because there are always more burger flippers or walmart stockers or army recruits. These types of voters were always republicans (unless they are a minority) since probably Reagan. What changed was that the recession lowered the entire nation a few financial pegs, and then it took a long slow time to craw back up to where we are before. But like the experts always say, the recovery was unequal. Greater Appalachia never recovered. So now, it is likely that a majority , rather then a minority or plurality, of states like West Virginia and Kentucky are National voters. They lost their routes upwards that would normally be open via the American Economy, so they place their trust in the nation. Hope and dignity are powerful motivators, and if you lose them, suicide or escapism become the only options - ever wonder why opiods are so prevalent in the region? Those are the only options left in the region, place trust and get your dignity from the nation, or escape into depression. Both routes point right towards the republican party. Seriously, read Greenfeld, she talks all about this even the suicide part. That part isn't even unusual, the UK created the first insane asylums in the 19th century for the same type of people.

[Oryxslayer]

We’re literally talking in circles now, but how do you explain the swing to the Republicans in 2008 of all years then? The economy nearly crashed then yet they rewarded the Republican Party with record levels of support (at that point in time) in Appalachia and much of the rural white south

Which is in line with the transition from economic dignity to national dignity in the V, and the GOP courts that national dignity group. The dems have just become increasing committed to a different type of American nationalism than held by the V (theres like 6 main branches, no need to discuss this here), so its  not hard to see the vote keep sliding from their hands as the states keep falling further and further into blight. The region is different from those further to the south, where two different strains of Nationalism are present, both driven by the color of peoples skin.

But like you said I think everyone here is talking in circles by now, so after two pages and a new news event, its probably time to get back on topic.

[Oryxslayer]

Returning conversation to that about the campaigns;

https://twitter.com/politicoalex/status/1176594918413930496

[Oryxslayer]

I will say that getting a good, public, quality, poll this close to the GE would help clean up this thread. The results would either confirm that the past month's circlejerking was necessary, or it will show that (un)popularity can override partisanship even in one of the trumpiest states.

[Oryxslayer]

Elliott county will vote for Beshear. There is not a doubt in my mind

Yes, there are  too many old dems in this county to not back Beshear when he will get 40%+ statewide. However, a good numbers of Elliot's neighbors that backed him last time won't this time, and those  counties he does carry in Appalachia will be with modest margins. Beshears path unsurprisingly, is though the minor urban areas across the state and the suburbs of Louisville and Cincinnati - along with Louisville, Lexington, and Frankfort of course.

[Oryxslayer]

It's just 3 weeks until the GE and the last KY poll is 2 months old ... and it was an internal.

Where is Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA etc. ?

There it is:

https://www.scribd.com/document/430472409/Mason-Dixon-Kentucky-Poll

Hey look, like I said, a public poll with confirm political opinions on this race. If Bevin's approval is actually treading water then that's the ball game.

[Oryxslayer]

i wonder if credit will be given to Xingerui and IceSpear

Well, there's two ways you can look at this,and in general view/rate electoral contests. The first view is that you rate the race with the information available today, and that rating changes week by week. The second view is that you rate how you assume the contest will be the day of the election, and that rating sticks for near the entire campaign. It's just a difference of viewpoint. The two groups may and often end up at the same place.

The problem is when the latter groups insults the former or claims superiority when the race does end up as the expected, or when the latter ends up way off and the former insults the latter's stupidity.

[Oryxslayer]

Morning consult is out with their Q3 approvals and they find Bevin underwater with 34%-53% Approve/Disapprove. Certainly different from Mason-Dixon. Marginal change from Q2 which had 32-56.

[Oryxslayer]

You technically forgot one of the models:

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1189703078842372097

Something near High-polarization though is the likeliest path, perhaps with bit more leeway.

[Oryxslayer]

Also remember that Kentucky crosses time zones. So while polls close at 6pm in both halves, one closes at 6pm est and one at 7.

[Oryxslayer]

1 hour away from poll closing and NYT doesn't have their results page up....

[Oryxslayer]

NYT page came live 1 hour from poll closing - rather late but ok.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/11/05/us/elections/results-kentucky-governor-general-election.html

[Oryxslayer]

If the gop doesn’t do well in these races tonight, what will that mean for 2020 and trump?

Nothing unless they lose MS. KY its a pure popularity vs partisan battle - SD and CT aren't going to be competitive even though their 2018 gubernatorial contest was. VA's Dem gains are just a continuation of the state being a new blue bastion/the harshest anti-trump state, so it's just a case of 'news at 11.'

[Oryxslayer]

I accept all blame  if it flips.

[Oryxslayer]

DDHQ has beshear leading in Floyd (SE) 2/42 precincts 280-160 votes, and 1/44 preincts in Franklin (Frankfort) 645-281 votes.

Also notably that Stumbo is underpreforming Beshear by quite a bit in every county, suggesting Beshear is getting some serious crossover.

[Oryxslayer]

Don't look now, but if the DDHQ map holds (unlikely), and is a early indicator (this is the first precincts though) this may be a case of Beshear getting BOTH the suburban swing and getting a swan song in the rurals.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/kypoljunkie/status/1191855856016601088

I suspect even if Beshear loses, this is going to be the story of the night. Serious crossover going on, some Republicans really don't like Bevin and are giving Beshear their vote but going red on everything else.

[Oryxslayer]

Every county that supposedly has 100% reporting was an error, wait a bit for saying that its all in, even in the small rurals.