2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[ltomlinson31]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1159276367042830344?s=21

Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer

Private polls generally overestimate Democrats by much less, though.

Just like that private McGrath poll showing her leading Andy Barr by 16% or whatever right? And Manchin up by double digits?

That was a public poll

The poll that had her up by 15% was conducted by the DCCC. The CLF also had a poll that was made around the same time that had her up by 13%

[ltomlinson31]

But Republican officials are increasingly expressing optimism about the Kentucky contest. Recently-completed voter modeling conducted by the Republican National Committee showed Bevin leading by 3 percentage points. The results, according to one person familiar with the data, represented a marked improvement for Bevin compared to the committee’s previous findings in the race.

Wow, sounds like the "undecideds" are breaking toward Bevin in a big way. Who ever could've predicted that?! It's not like this same thing has happened over and over again with Democrats polling well early on in crimson red states only to collapse in the final month of the race!

https://twitter.com/MattJonesRadio/status/1182480886555648000

He also did say months before that Beshear had a 10-12% lead in polling early on, but it looks like it's vanished since. Very surprising to see a Democrat hold an early lead in a race in Kentucky only to see it disappear as the race goes on. Very unprecedented.