2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Bidenworth2020]

I wonder what percentage of Adkins voters in Elliott county will go to Beshear.

probably around two-thirds

[Bidenworth2020]

The fact that the Kentucky GOP are actually sweating about this one gives me legitimate hope. Not a lot of it, but hope nonetheless.

Sadly, this is prolly just to get national rs and by extension Trumps attention.

[Bidenworth2020]

The R Senator who represents Bullitt and part of Jefferson endorsed Beshear today

https://www.wymt.com/content/news/Republican-lawmaker-endorses-Democratic-nominee-for-governor-513337441.html

Honestly this is starting to give me Kelly-Kobach vibes a tiny bit. Still not convinced that Bevin goes down in the end, but this is playing awfully similar.

Only problem is that Kentucky is Trump +36 instead of Trump +20.

Not only is it Trump +30, not +36, but the Democratic tradition is far stronger and the republican has a lower Approval.

[Bidenworth2020]

I went to Fancy Farm today. Beshear definitely has enthusiasm in Western Kentucky. I’ve only seen his signs. Bevin was booed repeatedly and throughout his speech. Yelling at him was a blast. Lots of signs among the Republicans for McConnell’s primary challenger.

See any MItch supporters who booed Bevin?

[Bidenworth2020]

I went to Fancy Farm today. Beshear definitely has enthusiasm in Western Kentucky. I’ve only seen his signs. Bevin was booed repeatedly and throughout his speech. Yelling at him was a blast. Lots of signs among the Republicans for McConnell’s primary challenger.

See any MItch supporters who booed Bevin?

Maybe not actively booing, but almost nobody cheered Bevin. Some Democrats referenced Robert Goforth.

When you say "democrats", do you mean registered democrats, a lot of whom voted for Trump, or Democratic activists?

[Bidenworth2020]

Probably a good sign for Bevin. I heard just a few months ago that polls had Beshear up by doubles, so Bevin may be narrowing the gap. A few well-timed Trump rallies probably do Beshear in and he ends up losing 53-46 or something. As for my friend MTTreasurer's point on the polling however, the reason Bevin outperformed polling so much is that the turnout in that election was anemic. I don't expect that to happen this time.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/politico_chris/status/1159276367042830344?s=21

Reminder that polls always overestimate Democrats in Kentucky and Appalachia in the summer

A couple of points about this whole thing-

1. The races that are always cited as evidence- KY GOV 2015 and KY SEN 2014, is not enough to set a precedent. Contrast this with Nevada for example, where we have literally a decade of democrats consistently overperforming polls. Races such as the 2010 senate race show an opposite trend.

2. Both of these races were republican waves, especially in terms of turnout. In this race, I think we can expect turnout to be neutral if not benefitting the democrats.

[Bidenworth2020]

False. There is plenty of precedent with summer polls overestimating Dems in Appalachia. Every WV Senate race since 2012, KY-6 in 2018 and 2012. Do your research yourself before trying to say I’m wrong

1. WV is not Kentucky

2. KY--6 is neither Appalachian or a good representation of Kentucky at large.

[Bidenworth2020]

When Bevin inevitably wins, I’m going to resurface these posts where you are splitting hairs getting all lawyerly. Beshear is doomed if he’s only barely ahead now in the summer. Take it to the grave. Mississippi is more likely to flip.

I think Bevin will win, dude. I just do think that Beshear is ahead right now.

[Bidenworth2020]

Lexington and its burbs may not be Louisville, but they aren't Hazard either. Big chunk of the Appalachians in KY-06 are 20-year-old kids who moved there to attend UK. The Appalachians in most of Eastern KY are...not that.

And McGrath was a first-time candidate for federal office. Beshear's had a chance to define himself and is running at the state level.

Doesn't make a lot of sense to compare the two.

You’re right. It doesn’t make sense. One was running a in a Trump +15 district. The other is running in a Trump +30 state

Local=/=federal

[Bidenworth2020]

Does anybody care about endorsements in 2019?

I do think that although one-off endorsements don't have any real effect, having a plethora of bipartisan endorsements can really contribute to a more palatable message, especially in a state as reoublican as Kentucky.

[Bidenworth2020]

Why would someone who voted for McCain because of coal vote for Gore in 2000?

Or even better, Kerry.

Isn’t Gore known as “the global warming guy”?

Not in 2000

lol yes he was. remember, losing WV, especially by 6 points, was unheard of for a dem coming that close in 2000.

[Bidenworth2020]

Elliott county will vote for Beshear. There is not a doubt in my mind

[Bidenworth2020]

I'm thinking a 4 point win for Bevin.