2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What I want to know is: where is Linda Belcher? She'd easily sew this entire race up if she just campaigned on behalf of Beshear!

Last seen losing by about 19% in the 2018 GE  

Anyway, I *generally* lean more towards the “predictions should reflect the unexaggerated likelihood of an outcome based on where things stand today” school of thought about electoral predictions and thus, am often going to be more reluctant to call races like 2019 MS Governor or the 2018 NV Governor’s race “Safe” (as opposed to “Likely R” and “Lean D,” respectively) even when I’m pretty confident from the start how it’ll turn out.  That said, I did think Beshear would beat the odds and win until pretty recently and while I still think he’ll do significantly better than Conway (who got destroyed IIRC), it looks like he’ll still probably lose by like 51%-46%-3%.  Congrats, IceSpear

I think KY AG is probably gonna be about a 10-16% win for the Republican with the rest of the statewide downballot races in KY, MS, and LA being 20-30 point blowouts.  Hood was never gonna win given that the MS House decides the race if no one wins a majority, but I think he probably loses by 7-8% (6-7% if there’s a Libertarian) with Reeves getting a majority of 53/54%.  I still think Edwards eeks out a victory, but that one will come down to the wire.  I definitely think some Abraham supporters are gonna sit it out, but IDK if that’ll be enough.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What'll be more interesting at this point is whether the race gets called for Bevin by 10 PM ET or not. If it doesn't, I'd be very optimistic about Beshear actually pulling through.

I believe the polls close at 6 [which is 5 by my clock], and I think it was around 9 PM in 2008 when Lunsford officially lost. Pretty sure it was 9 when McGrath was out too last year. The midpoint the should be around 7:30 PM

However, I'm logging it to 10 PM because that is the general midpoint of the big kahunas, and still very useful with close races. [Ex: LA-GOV Jungle 2019, Edwards settled into 46%, but Abraham was still in second place at the number Rispone ultimately took]

Honestly, I'm gonna be sadder about Greg Stumbo losing than Beshear.  I've always liked him in a "yeah, he's an a**hole, but he's our a**hole and a tough one at that" sort of way.  I'm old enough to remember his time as KY AG when he exposed the corruption scandals that brought down Ernie Fletcher (among others).  Plus, he seemed to be a real populist back when the word actually meant something (i.e. before Palin and later CNBC right-wingers turned it into a buzzword for corporatist race-baiters).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If the Rs lose KY, we might see some Senators become more open to impeachment