2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don't think Beshear trying to run as more conservative would help him, though, since it would probably be seen as pandering, and people who basically just want someone conservative already have that in Bevin.

I’m not saying he should run a campaign more or as conservative as Bevin or anything, but a more conservative tone on a few hot-button social issues or some distance between himself and the national party certainly wouldn’t hurt. Was JBE's pro-life position viewed as pandering? Was Joe Manchin's Kavanaugh vote viewed as pandering? Hardly.

I think someone like Rocky Adkins would be doing better against Bevin right now.

I’ll grant you if Rocky Adkins was the nominee that’s i think Bevin could actually lose. He actually has credibility to disassociate himself from the national party and Beshear doesn’t even seem to be trying to do that. It’s almost as if he’s going along advice from Bandit the Worker on Atlas

At the rate things are going, I wonder if Beshear will even manage to keep it within 5% in November, or if he will win Elliott County.

Sometimes I wonder how much of the 'rural racist hicks' is poes law around here. Because even if you think Beshear will lose, he will still do decently because Bevin is hated  in some circles. This means that some rural counties, like Elliot where the dem base is still reasonable, Beshear will carry. But he will probably carry far fewer then before, and will instead be getting his votes from places like the Cincinnati and Evansville suburbs.

My confidence about Elliott is less because in 2018, for the first time ever in a competitive race, Hal Rogers won the county. And we've seen how the urban-rural divide is only becoming more and more significant, and that the Democrats are continuing to bottom out in Appalachia. But I suppose that, if Beshear manages to do as well as Jim Gray did in rural areas in 2016, he might manage to win Elliott, and probably Rowan County as well.

But at this point, so many Kentuckians are unwilling to vote for a Democrat at any level, regardless of how moderate they are, because they view them all as socialists in the vein of Bernie Sanders. We saw this in West Virginia with Manchin as well last year.

I have a little secret for ya, bud: it’s not because the hicks all view Democrats as socialists now (Republican have been saying that for a hundred years). Think of who the last president was, what his name was, and what his skin color was. I want you to pause and reflect on why you think those rural areas are suddenly so anti-Democrat now all of a sudden. I mean, really, really think on that one.

Those hicks voted for Douglas Wilder in 1989 . So are you really seriously gonna claim that Appalachia of the 2010s is more racist than the Appalachia of 1989 lol. The Appalachia of today is dominated by baby boomers, a dem who basically spend almost their entire Adult life in a time after the voting rights act was passed vs the prior gens who spend much of their adult life at a time when segregation wasnt viewed as Normal.



Just please stop

[OSR stands with Israel]

I would LOVE to hear your explanation for it then. And please spare me the socialism BS. And before you blame “cultural liberalism” or social leftists, consider the name Barack Hussein Obama, a black man from the south side of Chicago in the context of that

Yes some people did switch cause of racism but thats not the main reason or else SW VA would not have voted for Douglas Wilder either.


The main reason by far is the Democrats becoming more and more anti coal over time(That's why you had a huge shift in 2000). The Second reason is yes the Democrats becoming to far left on social issues , but even that is minor reason compared to the Dems becoming anti-coal.


For example if the Dems suddenly became very very anti tech(and openly so as well) you would see a Massive and almost Instant shift in CA and any states where tech is big because the vast majority of people wont vote for a party that would destroy their career no matter what their prior beliefs were.   People vote on pocketbook first and you may think that those types of job should go away, but calling people racist because they dont want to vote for a party that openly wants to see the industry where they have made their careers be destroyed is absurd.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If people were voting on pocketbook in WV and KY where half the state is on food stamps and free and reduced school lunches, they definitely wouldn’t be voting for the party that tries to gut those programs every time they get power. If you are truly naïve enough to believe what you just said, then man, I will pray for you. You seem incredibly gullible and susceptible to a scam

Here's the Difference, Republicans dont openly like to claim that they want to destroy the industry the region relies on . So they blame the Democrats for wanting to put them in position where they have to get food stamps in the first place, and guess what when a party openly says they wanna destroy your career you would think that as well.

The most fundamental thing to a pocketbook is a job, so when it comes to pocketbook voting that is what will come up first.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If people were voting on pocketbook in WV and KY where half the state is on food stamps and free and reduced school lunches, they definitely wouldn’t be voting for the party that tries to gut those programs every time they get power. If you are truly naïve enough to believe what you just said, then man, I will pray for you. You seem incredibly gullible and susceptible to a scam

Here's the Difference, Republicans dont openly like to claim that they want to destroy the industry the region relies on . So they blame the Democrats for wanting to put them in position where they have to get food stamps in the first place, and guess what when a party openly says they wanna destroy your career you would think that as well.

The most fundamental thing to a pocketbook is a job, so when it comes to pocketbook voting that is what will come up first.

Is that why so many coal mining counties swung so heavily Republican in 2008 after the economy crashed, because they trusted the Republican Party more on “pocketbook” and economic issues? That’s a real puzzler there

They wouldnt have if Obama openly said he was anti-coal in 2008.


https://www.politico.com/story/2012/04/uttered-in-2008-still-haunting-obama-in-2012-074892

If somebody wants to build a coal-fired power plant, they can. It’s just that it will bankrupt them,

[OSR stands with Israel]

Also you bring up Douglas Wilder...you clearly haven’t seen the swing map from 1985–>1989

That happened more in Central VA then SW VA. Again I didnt say racism was no part of the reason it changed but a very minor part. BTW Wilder still one SW VA while losing Prince William County, the and Richmond Suburbs

[OSR stands with Israel]

Also you bring up Douglas Wilder...you clearly haven’t seen the swing map from 1985–>1989

That happened more in Central VA then SW VA. Again I didnt say racism was no part of the reason it changed but a very minor part. BTW Wilder still one SW VA while losing Prince William County, the and Richmond Suburbs

Orange County, CA didn’t change overnight either dude

Its wasnt cause of racism though Appalachia changed. It wasnt overnight exactly thank you, it started changing in 2000 and Dems happily pushed it away since then

[OSR stands with Israel]

These regions swung hard against Hillary, not Obama.

This despite the fact that the incumbent Republican with a 25% approval rating was blamed for the economic crash that occured a month before the election, and the fact that Republicans nominated a Gordon Gekko clone who literally was on tape saying "I like being able to fire people", "corporations are people my friend", and bashing the "47% of people who are dependent on government", which includes countless racist Appalachian whites that supported McCain/Romney in droves after previously voting for liberal coastal elitist John Kerry. Go figure. 🤔

Obama literally said he would bankrupt the coal companies. By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist

[OSR stands with Israel]

IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

No need to rely on the video, though it's good anecdotal evidence along with my own personal experiences in KY/WV. If you prefer empirical data, feel free to refer to post #370.

By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist

Were they that worried about the coal industry in Portland?

Um no they just liked McCain a lot(they would have voted for Hillary though ) and thought Obama did a bad job as President .

[OSR stands with Israel]

IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

No need to rely on the video, though it's good anecdotal evidence along with my own personal experiences in KY/WV. If you prefer empirical data, feel free to refer to post #370.

By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist

Were they that worried about the coal industry in Portland?

Um no they just liked McCain a lot(they would have voted for Hillary though ) and thought Obama did a bad job as President .

What part of KY did they live in?

They live in Portland Suburbs but I was giving an example of why you can’t call someone racist just for that type of voting record

[OSR stands with Israel]

"would allow illegal immigrants to swarm our state"

Yeah, clearly Republicans do well in KY/WV because they totally talk about "real issues" and are "in touch" with rural whites.

Yeah, I stand corrected. Republicans definitely aren't appealing to subconscious racism in this ad at all.

This is the kind of pocketbook stuff Mr. Computer was telling me about.

There's nothing "subconscious" about it, lol.

This ad and the eventual Trump rallies will whip the frothing Racist KY Hicks into a frenzy and devastate Beshear. His October collapse will rival and perhaps even surpass Bredesen's.

You had almost all the candidates on the Democratic side raise their hands in support of decriminalizing illegal crossings aka open borders(Biden was the exception). So Democrats first started to alienate these voters by going in a super anti coal direction over the past 20 years , and now are advocating crazy policies on immigration as well which alienates even more voters. Again though even then this is a very minor issue compared to coal for these voters.


Now here's the thing you might not think coal should be saved and you might think the government should do all it can to kill it, but then dont get so upset and then call voters in areas that benefit from coal racist.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Because the place every immigrant that comes to America wants to go is Kentucky right

That is not what I said, stop strawmanning my posts

[OSR stands with Israel]

You literally spent the last 24 hours arguing that racism has little to nothing to do with Republicans huge gains in Kentucky/Appalachia and then literally the next day Bevin releases a pretty racist ad designed to get Kentuckians riled up over the imaginary “illegal job stealers and rapists” that will pour into Kentucky if Beshear wins. Lmao you can’t even make this stuff up 😂

No Coal was 75% of the reason and still is. That ad will only help Bevin in efforts to turnout the hard core of hardcore base

[OSR stands with Israel]

You literally spent the last 24 hours arguing that racism has little to nothing to do with Republicans huge gains in Kentucky/Appalachia and then literally the next day Bevin releases a pretty racist ad designed to get Kentuckians riled up over the imaginary “illegal job stealers and rapists” that will pour into Kentucky if Beshear wins. Lmao you can’t even make this stuff up 😂

No Coal was 75% of the reason and still is. That ad will only help Bevin in efforts to turnout the hard core of hardcore base

Which is what, like half of the entire f&cking electorate of Kentucky?

The ones who care about immigration more than Coal probably 1/5



The vast majority of people in a Appalachian Kentucky  vote on the issue of coal

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why would someone who voted for McCain because of coal vote for Gore in 2000?

Or even better, Kerry.

Kerry barely did better than Obama in WV(0.2%) and Kerry never said anything about bankrupting the coal industry. Also their were still more voters from the old GI Gen voting in 2004 while in 2008 their were less voters form that Gen so that explains the shift. Ralph Nader also got 1% of the vote in 2008 while in 2004 he got 0.54% and Cynthia McKinney also got .33% . So the Left Voting Block actually was higher in 2008 then in 2004 in WV

[OSR stands with Israel]

Why would someone who voted for McCain because of coal vote for Gore in 2000?

Or even better, Kerry.

Isn’t Gore known as “the global warming guy”?

Not in 2000

[OSR stands with Israel]

When Bevin wins

1. I'll be mad, cause he's awful.
2. I'll be happy, cause I get to come back here and laugh at all the Lean D posters.

Meh, I mean, Louie Gohmert and Tom Cotton are awful too, but no Democrats will be mad about it when they win because everyone knows it's inevitable. Same thing for this race.

Actually if anything the aforementioned are worse since they impact all of us through the Congress. Thankfully, Bevin will remain solely Kentucky's problem.

Fair enough. But Bevin is up there with Rick Scott in my book of the worst of the worst.

Rick Scott was an amazing Governor even though Bush and now DeSantis were better. Scott > Crist though

[OSR stands with Israel]

When Bevin wins

1. I'll be mad, cause he's awful.
2. I'll be happy, cause I get to come back here and laugh at all the Lean D posters.

Meh, I mean, Louie Gohmert and Tom Cotton are awful too, but no Democrats will be mad about it when they win because everyone knows it's inevitable. Same thing for this race.

Actually if anything the aforementioned are worse since they impact all of us through the Congress. Thankfully, Bevin will remain solely Kentucky's problem.

Fair enough. But Bevin is up there with Rick Scott in my book of the worst of the worst.

Rick Scott was an amazing Governor even though Bush and now DeSantis were better. Scott > Crist though

Yeah, when he destroyed the public sector and caused an environmental crisis that was awesome.

He helped the private sector a lot(aka where vast majority of people work ) and reducing the size of government is a good thing , wish more Republicans actually did that

[OSR stands with Israel]

Are these idiots using Dem registration numbers as a proxy for “Beshear”? Let’s see how that turns out!

Bevin is the only one using it because he either wants to make his win look super impressive or give a lame excuse if he gets upset and loses

[OSR stands with Israel]

Beshear leading in Elliot so far

[OSR stands with Israel]

KY looks like Va now

Yah it looks like 2001 Virginia

[OSR stands with Israel]

Not that constitutionality will stop the legislature from at least trying to declare Bevin the winner. It's clearly under consideration

https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/politics/2019/11/06/beshear-vs-bevin-legislature-could-decide-race-senate-president-says/4174103002/

Stivers said he thought Bevin’s speech declining to concede to Beshear was “appropriate.” He said believes most of the votes that went to Libertarian John Hicks, who received about 2% of the total vote, would have gone to Bevin and made him the clear winner.

How the heck is that an argument, the state constitution does not state that a candidate has to win a majority of the vote , just highest meaning a candidate just needs a plurality to win

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://twitter.com/917wvxu/status/1196534798396903427

So which poster on this forum is Matt Bevin because the only way Kentucky is a blue state is if you are using Atlas colors