2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[IceSpear]

No, Safe R.

IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Don't forget that Gov. Edmondson can tell us all about how crimson red states can still elect Democrats as long as there is an unpopular Republican governor.

[IceSpear]

No, Safe R.

IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Don't forget that Gov. Edmondson can tell us all about how crimson red states can still elect Democrats as long as there is an unpopular Republican governor.

Again, I do not think you understand just HOW unpopular Bevin is, even in deep red Trump country. No one outside Kentucky could. It is not comparable to ANY of these other races people bring up. At all. The other states themselves are not quite comparable to Kentucky either in terms of their state party dynamics and history, and the candidates running against these Republicans were not comparable to Beshear either. Manchin is probably the closest analogy applicable here.

An October 2018 poll by Morning Consult found Fallin with a 17% approval and 75% disapproval rating, making her the most unpopular governor in the country.

Bevin is a super popular rockstar compared to Muhry Fallin, lol.

[IceSpear]

No. Unless he goes up on stage and basically insults everyone in the state and says that if reelected he'll make them all pay him $10,000, and lets be honest, if there's any governor in the country that would do that, its him. Otherwise no.

This is also the same governor who was loudly booed when he came on stage at his state's signature event. Could you ever imagine such a thing happening to Steve Beshear or Happy Chandler? Bevin is Rauner/Christie/Malloy level unpopular, and from the looks of it, he won't change that just by clinging closer to Trump.

Both Malloy and Brownback, despite being more unpopular than Bevin and in less partisan states than Kentucky, won re-election.

[IceSpear]

No, Safe R.

IA-PPP: Ernst (R) +4 over Generic Democrat
Atlas: Toss-up

KY-PPP: Generic Democrat +10 over Bevin
Atlas: Safe R

Seems legit.

Senator Bredesen and Governor Laxalt can attest to the accuracy of early polls.

Don't forget that Gov. Edmondson can tell us all about how crimson red states can still elect Democrats as long as there is an unpopular Republican governor.

If he was up against Fallin he probably would have won. Luckily for Republicans, that wasn’t the case

I highly doubt it. Regardless, all throughout 2018 I was told by multiple posters that her unpopularity would make it a toss up race even though she wasn't running, lol. Hopefully once Bevin wins the amended talking point of "ok, unpopularity will lead to a toss up race in a crimson red state but ONLY if they're actually running again!" can bite the dust as well.

[IceSpear]

I still think Bevin wins, but he is doing everything he can to lose, and if he was not in one of the reddest states in America, he’d be f:cked.

Yeah, some things never change

Does Bevin even WANT to win this race?

Why would he change a proven winning strategy?

He’ll win by double digits as soon as Trump throws a rally and the racist hicks go bonkers

I can't wait for the posts saying "How did Beshear lose <insert rural county here> to UNPOPULAR BEVIN when he won it in 2015?! Nobody saw this coming!"

[IceSpear]

You think they found out he was black after they voted for him? Walked into the polling booth, saw "Barack Hussein Obama," thought "huh, sounds like a Slovak or something," saw him on TV later and realized he's black? Because right now you're arguing that the very fact of Obama being president made people who voted for Obama get more racist.

Yes. And frankly I have better things to do with my time than argue with someone who thinks Mitch McConnell has a decent chance of losing to a Democrat

lmfao massive IQ on this dude

Someone who thinks Amy McGaffe has a chance in hell at beating Mitch McConnell should probably not be making any IQ judgments, lol.

[IceSpear]

It's very amusing that so many people here think Appalachia is not racist. Clearly anyone who thinks this has never actually been there. These people are the archetypal Kerry/McCain "swing voters":

https://youtu.be/IhporHhKbJA

But yeah, I'm sure they changed party allegiance because of pocketbook issues and kitchen table issues and environmental issues and socialism rather than racism!

The #populists who fetishize rural whites need to get a grip and actually go down to Appalachia for a few minutes and talk to a few of the locals. Your delusions will very quickly become dispelled. I am not surprised that the people arguing against this hail from states such as Massachusetts, California, Oregon, and Illinois, lol.

[IceSpear]

These regions swung hard against Hillary, not Obama.

This despite the fact that the incumbent Republican with a 25% approval rating was blamed for the economic crash that occured a month before the election, and the fact that Republicans nominated a Gordon Gekko clone who literally was on tape saying "I like being able to fire people", "corporations are people my friend", and bashing the "47% of people who are dependent on government", which includes countless racist Appalachian whites that supported McCain/Romney in droves after previously voting for liberal coastal elitist John Kerry. Go figure. 🤔

[IceSpear]

IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

No need to rely on the video, though it's good anecdotal evidence along with my own personal experiences in KY/WV. If you prefer empirical data, feel free to refer to post #370.

By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist

Were they that worried about the coal industry in Portland?

[IceSpear]

IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

No need to rely on the video, though it's good anecdotal evidence along with my own personal experiences in KY/WV. If you prefer empirical data, feel free to refer to post #370.

By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist

Were they that worried about the coal industry in Portland?

Um no they just liked McCain a lot(they would have voted for Hillary though ) and thought Obama did a bad job as President .

What part of KY did they live in?

They live in Portland Suburbs but I was giving an example of why you can’t call someone racist just for that type of voting record

Funnily enough there are 3 Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney/Clinton counties in Massachusetts.

IceSpear: "Kerry/McCain voters are all racists!"

Also IceSpear: "Romney/Clinton voters can't be racist!"

Uh, what? Democrats have won every county in Massachusetts since 1992.

[IceSpear]

IceSpear relying on the most trustworthy source of sociological information about the cultural patterns underlying voting patterns in Appalachia, the YouTube channel PrettyDrunkPeople.

No need to rely on the video, though it's good anecdotal evidence along with my own personal experiences in KY/WV. If you prefer empirical data, feel free to refer to post #370.

By the way I know people who were Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney voters and not a single one of them is racist

Were they that worried about the coal industry in Portland?

Um no they just liked McCain a lot(they would have voted for Hillary though ) and thought Obama did a bad job as President .

What part of KY did they live in?

They live in Portland Suburbs but I was giving an example of why you can’t call someone racist just for that type of voting record

Funnily enough there are 3 Gore/Kerry/McCain/Romney/Clinton counties in Massachusetts.

IceSpear: "Kerry/McCain voters are all racists!"

Also IceSpear: "Romney/Clinton voters can't be racist!"

Uh, what? Democrats have won every county in Massachusetts since 1992.

*Towns, my bad.

1) In that case there's the obvious home state effect of Kerry/Romney to take into account. If McCain and Romney and/or their VPs were from Appalachia maybe you'd have a point.

2) I doubt the swings were anywhere near the level of Appalachia.

3) Even if they were, yes, racists exist in Massachusetts as well. Just not anywhere near as much as there are in Appalachia.

[IceSpear]

I swear some of you have never even been to Appalachia or rural America at all, let alone spend much time there. I’m sure all the people proudly displaying their Confederate flags in Union states are just doing it out of heritage and definitely not racism.

Ok then, tell me more about your experience in rural America.

Do multiple members of my extended (thankfully) family in rural Kentucky calling Obama a n!gger count? I'm sure they'd be won over if only Dems talked more about kitchen table issues and #populism

[IceSpear]

This showed up in my in my newsfeed one day.  In the proud tradition of the war on poverty, the ARC, JFK, Rockefeller, her Catholic church, etc... one Virginia college girl would go on service trips to WV each summer.  Why she won't be going back.

https://www.cavalierdaily.com/article/2019/05/my-service-trip-to-west-virginia-raises-ethical-questions

Confederate flags hang from the front porches of houses and private businesses that we drive past. One project team even stumbled upon a room full of Nazi paraphernalia in the house they were assigned.

LOL. But again, I'm sure Atlas posters from CA/IL/MA/OR who have never been to Appalachia know better than the people who actually have.

I bet the guy with the Nazi paraphernalia would vote Beshear.

[IceSpear]

"would allow illegal immigrants to swarm our state"

Yeah, clearly Republicans do well in KY/WV because they totally talk about "real issues" and are "in touch" with rural whites.

Yeah, I stand corrected. Republicans definitely aren't appealing to subconscious racism in this ad at all.

This is the kind of pocketbook stuff Mr. Computer was telling me about.

There's nothing "subconscious" about it, lol.

This ad and the eventual Trump rallies will whip the frothing Racist KY Hicks into a frenzy and devastate Beshear. His October collapse will rival and perhaps even surpass Bredesen's.

[IceSpear]

"would allow illegal immigrants to swarm our state"

Yeah, clearly Republicans do well in KY/WV because they totally talk about "real issues" and are "in touch" with rural whites.

Yeah, I stand corrected. Republicans definitely aren't appealing to subconscious racism in this ad at all.

This is the kind of pocketbook stuff Mr. Computer was telling me about.

There's nothing "subconscious" about it, lol.

This ad and the eventual Trump rallies will whip the frothing Racist KY Hicks into a frenzy and devastate Beshear. His October collapse will rival and perhaps even surpass Bredesen's.

You had almost all the candidates on the Democratic side raise their hands in support of decriminalizing illegal crossings aka open borders(Biden was the exception). So Democrats first started to alienate these voters by going in a super anti coal direction over the past 20 years , and now are advocating crazy policies on immigration as well which alienates even more voters. Again though even then this is a very minor issue compared to coal for these voters.


Now here's the thing you might not think coal should be saved and you might think the government should do all it can to kill it, but then dont get so upset and then call voters in areas that benefit from coal racist.

Because the ad was clearly a reasonable and well thought out criticism of Democrats' immigration policy.

More like "SPOOKY VIOLENT TATTOOED BROWN PEOPLE IN GANGS! BESHEAR LOVES THEM AND HATES TRUMP! VOTE BEVIN!"

Excellent strategy from Bevin. He's inevitable. Much like Trump, he knows his base. Racist KY Hicks will eat up this slop like pigs at the trough.

[IceSpear]

Why would someone who voted for McCain because of coal vote for Gore in 2000?

Or even better, Kerry.

[IceSpear]

Oof

https://mobile.twitter.com/phillipmbailey/status/1180228336720715781?ref_src=tws...

'He' is probably Beshear lmao

Are you seriously trying to spin this?

I mean, it isn't really indicative of anything. Top Republicans were super concerned about TN-Sen last year and we all remember what happened then. I'll at least admit Bevin will win by an embarrassing margin but he won't win. Sorry. I'd save all your hope for JBE who is still in with a very good shot.

Yes, I'm old enough to remember when TN-Sen was surely a toss up because some random operatives in a Politico article said so.

[IceSpear]

When Bevin wins

1. I'll be mad, cause he's awful.
2. I'll be happy, cause I get to come back here and laugh at all the Lean D posters.

Meh, I mean, Louie Gohmert and Tom Cotton are awful too, but no Democrats will be mad about it when they win because everyone knows it's inevitable. Same thing for this race.

Actually if anything the aforementioned are worse since they impact all of us through the Congress. Thankfully, Bevin will remain solely Kentucky's problem.

[IceSpear]

Senator Moore

Bevin is not a pedophile.

Senator Morrissey, Senator Rosendale

Nor is he a carpetbagger running against a popular incumbent.

Governor Kobach

Kobach would've won easily if KS was as red as KY.

[IceSpear]

What are some gubernatorial races with similar dynamics in states as Democratic as Kentucky is Republican? What were the results of those (not just who won but the margin)?

Nothing fits perfectly, but probably the closest parallels are Muhloy, Muhry Fallin, Raimuhndo, and Brownback (can't do a good muh for him.)

[IceSpear]

What are some gubernatorial races with similar dynamics in states as Democratic as Kentucky is Republican? What were the results of those (not just who won but the margin)?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Kentucky_gubernatorial_election

Wow, look at all those rural counties Conway won! Beshear will be lucky to win half that many.

[IceSpear]

AL-Sen was only as close as it was because Moore was revealed to be a pedophile. This should be obvious to anyone who bothers to examine the race for more than half a second rather than blithely skating by with a "trends"

so what you're saying is Bevin is safe since he isn't a pedophile?

It may not be the case that the only thing which would bring Bevin down is pedophilia - remember that Ted Stevens was brought down in 2008 by some legal baggage. I think that poster's point is that it would take an extraordinary type of baggage (of which pedophilia would be one such kind) to bring Bevin down.

No, it's the other way around — it was only close for Jones because of the pedophile scandal. If that doesn't happen, Jones wins comfortably.

Man, that is a scorching red hot chili pepper take if I've ever seen one.

[IceSpear]

Governor Kobach

Kobach would've won easily if KS was as red as KY.

The difference is way smaller than you think:

KY: Trump + 30, Romney + 23
KS: Trump + 20, Romney + 22

2012 numbers are irrelevant. TX-07 literally has the same PVI as WI-08 due to 2012 numbers, lol.

[IceSpear]

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.

[IceSpear]

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.

+1

As for Alabama, let me know if you figure out Bevin is a pedophile and I'll be happy to change my rating.