2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[ElectionsGuy]

No. Unless he goes up on stage and basically insults everyone in the state and says that if reelected he'll make them all pay him $10,000, and lets be honest, if there's any governor in the country that would do that, its him. Otherwise no.

This is also the same governor who was loudly booed when he came on stage at his state's signature event. Could you ever imagine such a thing happening to Steve Beshear or Happy Chandler? Bevin is Rauner/Christie/Malloy level unpopular, and from the looks of it, he won't change that just by clinging closer to Trump.

Both Malloy and Brownback, despite being more unpopular than Bevin and in less partisan states than Kentucky, won re-election.

In 2014 too. As much as partisanship/polarization is an overused meme of sorts on here, it still continues to have an increasing value even on state-level politics.

[ElectionsGuy]

Around 60% of the ballots cast were in the Democratic primary. We knew that was going to happen, especially with the competitive Democratic primary, but in 2015 there were more votes in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary. I would expect at least a third of Adkins voters and maybe 20% of the others in the Democratic primary to vote for Bevin in the general.

It should a little bit concerning to Bevin not only that Gofforth got 39% against him but also the most Republican region in Kentucky voted for Gofforth the most. It's loyally Republican, so it won't vote against him in the general but Republicans not voting may be a serious problem that could cost him the race.

[ElectionsGuy]

Polling looks really bad for Bevin right now, but let's wait until at least October before we start declaring Beshear the winner. this is Kentucky after all.

Even in October polls will "tighten" to Beshear +5 and then election day will shut down any confidence in Kentucky polling (if there is any left).

[ElectionsGuy]

Bevin could have an approval rating of 10% and this forum would still call the race Safe R. Should be pretty obvious to everyone that he is in massive trouble.

Less than 10% of this forum is calling this race Safe R.

[ElectionsGuy]

If you STILL think this is even so much as Lean R, you should have your license to ever comment on any Kentucky race ever again revoked immediately.

Dude calm your sh!t

Well, it'll make for some entertaining look back if/when Bevin wins.

[ElectionsGuy]

I'm sure they were sweating about TN-SEN as well

I'm sure that by June 2018, the polling was already noticeably and massively shifting in favour of Marsha Blackburn. There was even a poster who had it as their signature with the quote "dumber than Alabama" lol.

This is July: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=296377.0

[ElectionsGuy]

Why?

Matt Bevin is a provocateur. He's like a slightly more professional but much less likable version of Trump. That's why people hate him but that's also why he'll get re-elected.

[ElectionsGuy]

poll showing the man winning is not "bad news for Beshear" y'all, jesus. also, neither KY-06 nor most of the commonwealth of Kentucky are part of Appalachia.

Neither were polls showing Bredesen narrowly ahead. And polls showing Clinton consistently ahead 2-6 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin weren't bad news for her either. If you know polling history in this area of the country, you should understand the exercise of caution.

[ElectionsGuy]

Does anybody care about endorsements in 2019?

[ElectionsGuy]

Beshear: *doom and gloom music*
Bevin: Guitar riffs
...

[ElectionsGuy]

It's just 3 weeks until the GE and the last KY poll is 2 months old ... and it was an internal.

Where is Mason-Dixon, SurveyUSA etc. ?

I think they'll probably all wait until the last two weeks, like how we got a large number of polls in the final days running up to the Jungle primary in Louisiana.

[ElectionsGuy]

Is that Beshear +19 poll really gonna be the last one we get?

I hate Bevin but I hope he holds that poll up like Truman if he wins tomorrow. Worst poll I’ve seen in a long time lol

Why are you assuming it’s a bad poll? Bevin is least poplar gov in America. The demographics of the poll look accurate

Take a deeper look into the crosstabs and you'll realize why.

[ElectionsGuy]

Excuse me, was I the only one that missed this poll?

https://twitter.com/JesseRodriguez/status/1192086052628029440

Or are they releasing it just now?

If that was released I think the forum would've been off by a lot more than we were lol. I can't even see the logo for who did it it's so small.

[ElectionsGuy]

Bevin is still talking about this as if he can still be the winner. What a sore loser. Maybe it's good for the KY Republican party to get rid of him in the long run. Cameron could be a good candidate to take on Beshear in 2023 and would keep the 'AG running for governor' streak going.