2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins

[Devout Centrist]

...

[Horsemask]

It has been awhile since I've posted, but I just want to say: THANK GOODNESS

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/politico_steve/status/1191913438068592641?s=21

womp womp

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/politico_steve/status/1191913438068592641?s=21

womp womp

Sad loser Bevin won't admit he lost. Sad!

[TDAS04]

My prediction was wrong, but I am glad the Democrat pulled a victory.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KY looks like Va now

[538Electoral]

Beshear won't get anything done anyway. The KY General Assembly is still overwhelmingly Republican and will block any liberal positions Beshear may try to enact.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/politico_steve/status/1191913438068592641?s=21

womp womp

Sad loser Bevin won't admit he lost. Sad!

Bevin is refusing to concede, just like Roy Moore back in 2017. It won't matter anyhow. He will be out of office in two months.

[Oryxslayer]

Beshear claiming victory on CNN now in his speech.

[ethanhenare1]

Congrats to Beshear!

[OSR stands with Israel]

KY looks like Va now

Yah it looks like 2001 Virginia

[Oryxslayer]

MCI map's map is out. Note the Swing in Louisville, Lexington, and the Cincinnati suburbs.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Beshear won't get anything done anyway. The KY General Assembly is still overwhelmingly Republican and will block any liberal positions Beshear may try to enact.

And the Kentucky House will sustain his vetoes!

[MT Treasurer]

^These rural Eastern KY counties did Bevin in.

[IceSpear]

I haven't read this thread yet, but since I'm sure at least one person asked where I was, I was at work. Some of us who don't live in Owsley County have to work for a living.

Anyway, I'm of course glad to be wrong and will happily eat crow/eggs. But at least I share embarrassment with all the people who thought Beshear would win in a landslide and actually believed that Targoz poll, lol.

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1191894907801214977

[IceSpear]

I haven't read this thread yet, but since I'm sure at least one person asked where I was, I was at work. Some of us who don't live in Owsley County have to work for a living.

Anyway, I'm of course glad to be wrong and will happily eat crow/eggs. But at least I share embarrassment with all the people who thought Beshear would win in a landslide and actually believed that Targoz poll, lol.

Literally isn't though. Just off the top of my head KYWildman, Tender Branson, and Bandit thought this.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, obviously this race could have easily gone the other way, and it’s probably fairly likely that Beshear will face a very difficult reelection race in 2023, especially if a Democrat is president. The GOP bench is only getting stronger and it’s hard to find another Republican candidate as inept and odious as Bevin. (I’m by no means predicting that he will lose, but I’d be surprised if he didn’t struggle like JBE this year.)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah, obviously this race could have easily gone the other way, and it’s probably fairly likely that Beshear will face a very difficult reelection race in 2023, especially if a Democrat is president. The GOP bench is only getting stronger and it’s hard to find another Republican candidate as inept and odious as Bevin. (I’m by no means predicting that he will lose, but I’d be surprised if he didn’t struggle like JBE this year.)

We'll cross that bridge when we come to it, for now we should be celebrating Kentucky's apparent and unexpected common sense.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Not every day you get to wake up to such glorious news! The most punchable and disgusting Governor in the US getting exactly what he deserves!

It's also doubly satisfying considering how bullish a great number of posters have been about Bevin winning, ridiculing anyone who even dared to suggest Beshear might have a shot.   

I would hope people would learn from this, but having been on Atlas for a decade now I know people will forget this lesson in two heart-beats and will be back to making super-confident predictions and assumptions in time for the presidential election in a year.

Anyway, I'll be unbearably self-congratulatory on getting this one right:

This race is really just a question if you think running for reelection with the worst approval ration in the nation will override normal partisan leans. Gubernatorial elections are more prone to swinging, but still on some level conform with the nation. There's a variety of evidence from recent elections to suggest to make a good case for both the partisan and the approval sides.

I'm of the opinion that approval and favorability numbers are more of a factor in Gubernatorial elections, while normal partisan leans take precedent in presidential and congressional elections. I think there is recent precedent for that view in KS Governor 18 and LA Governor 15, especially in the latter case. The Debbie downers here were saying then, just as they are now, that although Vitter was terrible and everyone (including Republicans) despised him, there was no way he could loose to JBE because Louisiana "hicks" simply weren't going vote for someone with a (D) next to their name.

That's why I believe Bevin will loose this race, he simply seems to be so thoroughly unpopular in Kentucky that Beshear has a shot. Now, if this was a Senate race we were talking about, there'd be no chance in hell that the Democrat would prevail, no matter how unpopular MoscowMitch becomes, but I still believe there is a huge difference between how polarized the electorate is regarding state elections, compared with national ones.

Though I might be proven to be too optimistic. We'll just have to wait til November and see. 

[Devout Centrist]

I haven't read this thread yet, but since I'm sure at least one person asked where I was, I was at work. Some of us who don't live in Owsley County have to work for a living.

Anyway, I'm of course glad to be wrong and will happily eat crow/eggs. But at least I share embarrassment with all the people who thought Beshear would win in a landslide and actually believed that Targoz poll, lol.

Translation: "I was wrong, but I will not change my behavior, I'll keep acting like an asshole, and I'll gloat for weeks if proven right"

[One Term Floridian]

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1191947091461001216?s=21

Trump - aka the rightwing olawakandi - actually thinks his election eve rally single-handedly reversed the results of that infamous +19 Beshear poll.

Lol go to bed, Twitler.

[Annatar]

To bad there are no exit polls because the vote splitting was big, Bevin on average got around a 100k fewer votes than the other republicans meaning 7% of all voters who voted republican in other races voted for Beshear and around 12% of all voters that generally voted for republican candidates. That’s Joe Morrissey levels of defection.

[Pericles]

I haven't read this thread yet, but since I'm sure at least one person asked where I was, I was at work. Some of us who don't live in Owsley County have to work for a living.

Anyway, I'm of course glad to be wrong and will happily eat crow/eggs. But at least I share embarrassment with all the people who thought Beshear would win in a landslide and actually believed that Targoz poll, lol.

Literally isn't though. Just off the top of my head KYWildman, Tender Branson, and Bandit thought this.

Nobody believed Beshear would win by 19 points, and while Tender overestimated the margin overall they just predicted a Beshear win. They did not predict a 19 point Beshear win as you misleadingly imply, so yes you are strawmanning here. I hope this is a lesson to people to show more humility and not make such arrogant predictions in the future (I highly doubt it will be though).

[Skye]

The swing map sure is a sight to behold: