2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
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  2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins
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Poll
Question: Ballot Preference: Which candidate would you vote for?
#1
Bevin (R)
 
#2
Beshear (D)
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 163

Author Topic: 2019 KY GOV Megathread, Andy Beshear wins  (Read 53178 times)
Donerail
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« Reply #450 on: October 08, 2019, 10:06:29 AM »

AL-Sen was only as close as it was because Moore was revealed to be a pedophile. This should be obvious to anyone who bothers to examine the race for more than half a second rather than blithely skating by with a "trends"

so what you're saying is Bevin is safe since he isn't a pedophile?

It may not be the case that the only thing which would bring Bevin down is pedophilia - remember that Ted Stevens was brought down in 2008 by some legal baggage. I think that poster's point is that it would take an extraordinary type of baggage (of which pedophilia would be one such kind) to bring Bevin down.
No, it's the other way around — it was only close for Jones because of the pedophile scandal. If that doesn't happen, Jones wins comfortably.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #451 on: October 08, 2019, 06:43:51 PM »

AL-Sen was only as close as it was because Moore was revealed to be a pedophile. This should be obvious to anyone who bothers to examine the race for more than half a second rather than blithely skating by with a "trends"

so what you're saying is Bevin is safe since he isn't a pedophile?

It may not be the case that the only thing which would bring Bevin down is pedophilia - remember that Ted Stevens was brought down in 2008 by some legal baggage. I think that poster's point is that it would take an extraordinary type of baggage (of which pedophilia would be one such kind) to bring Bevin down.
No, it's the other way around — it was only close for Jones because of the pedophile scandal. If that doesn't happen, Jones wins comfortably.

Man, that is a scorching red hot chili pepper take if I've ever seen one.
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Donerail
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« Reply #452 on: October 08, 2019, 07:20:39 PM »

No, it's the other way around — it was only close for Jones because of the pedophile scandal. If that doesn't happen, Jones wins comfortably.

Man, that is a scorching red hot chili pepper take if I've ever seen one.
It's not a take, exactly. I had a chance to meet with one of the senior advisors on that campaign and all their internal numbers were showing a comfortable win over Moore right before the news broke, which brought in a lot of outside partisan actors and polarized the race along party lines.

Before the allegations broke, Jones was simply running an election against a high-profile and not particularly well-liked political figure. Draw your own comparisons to this race.
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Pericles
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« Reply #453 on: October 08, 2019, 07:37:21 PM »

No, it's the other way around — it was only close for Jones because of the pedophile scandal. If that doesn't happen, Jones wins comfortably.

Man, that is a scorching red hot chili pepper take if I've ever seen one.
It's not a take, exactly. I had a chance to meet with one of the senior advisors on that campaign and all their internal numbers were showing a comfortable win over Moore right before the news broke, which brought in a lot of outside partisan actors and polarized the race along party lines.

Before the allegations broke, Jones was simply running an election against a high-profile and not particularly well-liked political figure. Draw your own comparisons to this race.

Tbh the Jones people have an incentive to spin the results as a mandate for Doug Jones and not just a fluke caused by Moore's pedophilia accusations. The public polling also showed a sharp trend towards Jones as a result of the accusations and Moore never got back to the same lead he had beforehand. Without the accusations I think Moore wins by high single digits, which would still have been an embarrassing performance for a Republican in Alabama and a good performance by Jones.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #454 on: October 08, 2019, 07:49:14 PM »

AL-Sen was only as close as it was because Moore was revealed to be a pedophile. This should be obvious to anyone who bothers to examine the race for more than half a second rather than blithely skating by with a "trends"

so what you're saying is Bevin is safe since he isn't a pedophile?

It may not be the case that the only thing which would bring Bevin down is pedophilia - remember that Ted Stevens was brought down in 2008 by some legal baggage. I think that poster's point is that it would take an extraordinary type of baggage (of which pedophilia would be one such kind) to bring Bevin down.
No, it's the other way around — it was only close for Jones because of the pedophile scandal. If that doesn't happen, Jones wins comfortably.

This has to be the worst analysis since Dick Morris in 2012
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Donerail
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« Reply #455 on: October 08, 2019, 08:16:58 PM »

It's not a take, exactly. I had a chance to meet with one of the senior advisors on that campaign and all their internal numbers were showing a comfortable win over Moore right before the news broke, which brought in a lot of outside partisan actors and polarized the race along party lines.

Before the allegations broke, Jones was simply running an election against a high-profile and not particularly well-liked political figure. Draw your own comparisons to this race.

Tbh the Jones people have an incentive to spin the results as a mandate for Doug Jones and not just a fluke caused by Moore's pedophilia accusations. The public polling also showed a sharp trend towards Jones as a result of the accusations and Moore never got back to the same lead he had beforehand. Without the accusations I think Moore wins by high single digits, which would still have been an embarrassing performance for a Republican in Alabama and a good performance by Jones.
This was not a public meeting and I was not working as a journalist at the time. This staffer was also no longer employed by Jones.
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« Reply #456 on: October 08, 2019, 11:13:29 PM »

The difference is way smaller than you think:

KY: Trump + 30, Romney + 23
KS: Trump + 20, Romney + 22
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Pericles
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« Reply #457 on: October 08, 2019, 11:20:32 PM »

The difference is way smaller than you think:

KY: Trump + 30, Romney + 23
KS: Trump + 20, Romney + 22

Hypothetically, if Beshear outperforms the presidential margin by the same amount that Kelly did, he loses by 3%.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #458 on: October 08, 2019, 11:47:13 PM »

The difference is way smaller than you think:

KY: Trump + 30, Romney + 23
KS: Trump + 20, Romney + 22

2012 numbers are irrelevant. TX-07 literally has the same PVI as WI-08 due to 2012 numbers, lol.
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Badger
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« Reply #459 on: October 09, 2019, 12:27:51 AM »

Could we possibly, PLEASE, withhold calling this race and calling everyone who disagrees idiots until we actually get some, y'know, real polling??

I mean yes, KY is ruby red and pro-Trump, but has shown even in this decade a willingness to vote Democratic down ballot. Bevin has horrific favorables and is running a poor campaign, plus Beshear is a good candidate.

Can we just universally call this Lean R/Undecided until polling arrives?

Truly, beyond what I mentioned above, no one really has any clue how this race is shaping up.

In one ear.... Roll Eyes
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Pericles
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« Reply #460 on: October 09, 2019, 03:40:48 AM »

It's not a take, exactly. I had a chance to meet with one of the senior advisors on that campaign and all their internal numbers were showing a comfortable win over Moore right before the news broke, which brought in a lot of outside partisan actors and polarized the race along party lines.

Before the allegations broke, Jones was simply running an election against a high-profile and not particularly well-liked political figure. Draw your own comparisons to this race.

Tbh the Jones people have an incentive to spin the results as a mandate for Doug Jones and not just a fluke caused by Moore's pedophilia accusations. The public polling also showed a sharp trend towards Jones as a result of the accusations and Moore never got back to the same lead he had beforehand. Without the accusations I think Moore wins by high single digits, which would still have been an embarrassing performance for a Republican in Alabama and a good performance by Jones.
This was not a public meeting and I was not working as a journalist at the time. This staffer was also no longer employed by Jones.

It's still something they'd want to believe and would make the Jones campaign look good. I remember seeing this argument in an interview with Vox and it doesn't seem plausible tbh. The evidence points strongly that this take is not accurate and the conventional wisdom actually gets this one right. You could argue about how much the pedophilia factor benefited Jones, but it's almost certain that this factor did help him, and likely that it helped him significantly.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #461 on: October 09, 2019, 12:59:43 PM »

It will be interesting to see how coal counties votes given the massive chaos and job losses in the last six months.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #462 on: October 09, 2019, 01:13:32 PM »

It will be interesting to see how coal counties votes given the massive chaos and job losses in the last six months.
They will vote for Matt Bevin. Trump will come down to the coal counties and give a speech on Beshear will steal the jobs and turn the Cracker Barrel into a Taco Bell and they'll all vote GOP.

Obviously an exaggeration, but is it?
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #463 on: October 09, 2019, 02:36:55 PM »

It will be interesting to see how coal counties votes given the massive chaos and job losses in the last six months.
They will vote for Matt Bevin. Trump will come down to the coal counties and give a speech on Beshear will steal the jobs and turn the Cracker Barrel into a Taco Bell and they'll all vote GOP.

Obviously an exaggeration, but is it?

Maybe. Maybe they don't vote.  Just interesting to see what they'll do.
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Politician
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« Reply #464 on: October 10, 2019, 02:49:31 PM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #465 on: October 10, 2019, 03:29:52 PM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.
I wasn't here for 2017, but I thought AL-Sen was a tossup and as was KS-Gov.
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Xing
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« Reply #466 on: October 10, 2019, 03:49:44 PM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.
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« Reply #467 on: October 10, 2019, 03:56:02 PM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.
Not you specifically, but some other users I remember saying they wanted Colyer to win the primary to prevent the risk of Kobach winning, and when I pointed out Kobach would be easier to beat, they were like "lol no, Kobach is still going to win!"

Anyway, you're using the same logic in this race you did here:

People honestly think Jones has a chance? Come on, people, this is Alabama we're talking about. Moore's scandal isn't going to sink him, just ask President Hillary Clinton or Congressman Rob Quist how much these scandals really affect the opinions of voters. Moore would win even if he didn't deny the allegations and claimed he felt good about what he did. I'll guess a slightly narrower margin, but Moore's magic (R) will still easily save him.

Moore - 53%
Jones - 45%
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IceSpear
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« Reply #468 on: October 10, 2019, 04:14:32 PM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
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« Reply #469 on: October 10, 2019, 04:15:55 PM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.
Not you specifically, but some other users I remember saying they wanted Colyer to win the primary to prevent the risk of Kobach winning, and when I pointed out Kobach would be easier to beat, they were like "lol no, Kobach is still going to win!"

Anyway, you're using the same logic in this race you did here:

People honestly think Jones has a chance? Come on, people, this is Alabama we're talking about. Moore's scandal isn't going to sink him, just ask President Hillary Clinton or Congressman Rob Quist how much these scandals really affect the opinions of voters. Moore would win even if he didn't deny the allegations and claimed he felt good about what he did. I'll guess a slightly narrower margin, but Moore's magic (R) will still easily save him.

Moore - 53%
Jones - 45%

Yes, I know you're very fond of that quote. I've admitted several times that I was wrong about that race, but as has been pointed out before...
 
1) Bevin isn't a pedophile (that we know of)
2) This isn't a special election
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IceSpear
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« Reply #470 on: October 10, 2019, 04:17:17 PM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.

+1

As for Alabama, let me know if you figure out Bevin is a pedophile and I'll be happy to change my rating.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #471 on: October 10, 2019, 04:18:23 PM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.
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« Reply #472 on: October 10, 2019, 04:19:43 PM »
« Edited: October 10, 2019, 04:22:58 PM by Slam Dunk MI »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.

+1

As for Alabama, let me know if you figure out Bevin is a pedophile and I'll be happy to change my rating.
You're moving the goalposts. Every time a Democrat wins in a red state, you create an excuse and say they won't win in a red state again. "Moore was a pedophile", "Manchin was an incumbent", "Kansas is a purple state", etc.

Also, Blackburn and Stitt had positive favorables in the campaign whereas Bevin, Moore, Kobach, Morrissey all had negative favorables.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #473 on: October 10, 2019, 04:23:54 PM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I've noticed the same people who say Beshear has a chance also thought Phil Bredesen and Drew Edmondson had a chance.
I don't believe anyone gave either (especially Edmondson) a chance by the end.

Quite a few people did. I don't feel like digging up the old threads, but here's some relevant posts from the lovely Politician on this matter:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=295292.msg6520119#msg6520119
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IceSpear
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« Reply #474 on: October 10, 2019, 04:25:11 PM »

I've noticed the same people who say Matt Bevin is inevitable said the same thing about Roy Moore and Kris Kobach.

I had KS-GOV as a Toss-Up from the start, but thanks for playing.

+1

As for Alabama, let me know if you figure out Bevin is a pedophile and I'll be happy to change my rating.
You're moving the goalposts. Every time a Democrat wins in a red state, you create an excuse and say they won't win in a red state again. "Moore was a pedophile", "Manchin was an incumbent", "Kansas is a purple state", etc.

I don't know why you're still using Kansas as an example when I had it as a toss up the entire election, lol.
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